Trita Parsi and Marcus Stanley
The U.S. is in danger of being further captured by Israel’s foreign policy agenda. Continuing military support for Israel without exercising leverage to constrain Israel’s actions will draw the U.S. into ever-greater military and political commitments in the Middle East, at a major cost to American resources, prestige, and interests.
U.S. assistance to Israel is the crucial enabling factor for Israel’s aggressive military posture. U.S. military aid to Israel has at least tripled since the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks. According to the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. directly provided one-third of Israel’s own defense budget in 2024. U.S. military operations in the region since the start of the Gaza war have indirectly added billions of dollars to the amount the U.S. has spent on behalf of Israel.
Yet Israel’s security doctrine directly threatens the long-term American interest in establishing a stable, self-sustaining security order in the Middle East, which would help enable a significantly lower U.S. military presence and level of involvement in the region. Israel’s current course in its conflicts will require more U.S. military engagement, not less, with no clear end in sight.
Israeli intentions seem to include the destruction of the current regime in Iran, a permanent disarmament of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the occupation of territory within Syria, a mass forced expulsion of the millions of remaining civilians in Gaza, and an annexation of the West Bank. But none of these, let alone all of them, can be achieved without considerably expanded long-term U.S. military and political support.
Unless and until the U.S. demonstrates that it can withhold military support for Israeli actions that do not align with U.S. interests, Israel faces no clear incentive to change its policies. The history of the Middle East shows that even military victories such as the 1967 Six-Day War or the 1990–91 Gulf War do not create peace and stability unless they are accompanied by creative diplomacy and mutual restraint. Israel must be a participant in such diplomacy. But it is highly unlikely that Israel will show the needed restraint so long as U.S. support is unconditional.
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