The 20-year American war in Afghanistan concluded ingloriously five years ago, marked by the United States' final withdrawal of 2,500 troops beginning in April 2021, with a target completion by September. This departure swiftly triggered the collapse of the U.S.-backed government and military infrastructure. Within weeks of the initial U.S.
China benefits when democracies describe its coercive activities below the threshold of armed conflict as "gray zone" operations, a term that implies ambiguity and unintentionally legitimizes its behavior. These actions, including those in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and against the Philippines, are deliberate political warfare operations designed to alter behavior, undermine sovereignty, and fracture alliances without triggering conventional military retaliation.
China is actively employing a “presence as claim” strategy, utilizing coast guard operations and maritime law enforcement to assert jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan, mirroring tactics previously seen around the Senkaku Islands and in the South China Sea. China's opposition to the Japan-Philippines maritime boundary delimitation talks, conducted under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), serves as a pretext to extend its jurisdictional claims into this strategically vital area.
The Tibetan resistance of the late 1950s, despite possessing difficult terrain, motivated fighters, popular grievance, and covert CIA support, ultimately failed to achieve lasting military or political success against the People’s Liberation Army. This failure stemmed not merely from material inferiority, but from a deeper inability to reconcile Buddhist legitimacy, political authority, and organized violence.
Western observers widely acknowledge China's rise as an indisputable fact, with commentators like investor Steven Rattner praising its 'model of state-directed capitalism' for dominating global manufacturing and achieving extraordinary progress in technology-oriented fields. Economic historian Adam Tooze further asserts that China serves as 'the master key to understanding modernity.'
China has developed a distinct energy security model, positioning it to absorb the Strait of Hormuz crisis more effectively than other Asian importers and to commercially profit from the accelerated energy transition. Despite 84% of Hormuz crude bound for Asia, with China as the largest destination (5.4 million barrels/day before the war), Beijing built a strategic petroleum reserve of 1.2
Today’s strategic map reveals a familiar pattern: a bloc of land-based powers, concentrated in central Eurasia, is challenging a liberal, maritime order anchored by an offshore superpower. This continental alliance, comprising China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and supported by autocracies from Belarus to Myanmar, mirrors historical continental empires like Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and the Soviet Union in their ambition to dominate Eurasia and project global power.
Democratic backsliding in the United States has accelerated "much faster" than "any other democracy in modern times" over the past year, according to the Varieties of Democracy think tank, driven by severe internal divisions, political dissatisfaction, and institutional dysfunction. This rapid deterioration reflects a broader global trend where concerns about democracy’s future have moved to the center of political debate over the past decade or two.
New ECFR polling from May 2026 reveals that British voters overwhelmingly view Brexit as a disaster, with three-quarters desiring a closer relationship with the EU. This sentiment is driven by concerns over the economy, security, and migration, leading to a willingness to reconsider previously firm red lines, including freedom of movement and even participation in a European nuclear deterrent.
Ukrainian strikes on Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery on June 17 and 18 significantly undermined Russian President Vladimir Putin’s narrative of steady victory, forcing official explanations for the failure of Moscow’s air defense system. These attacks, following previous ignored drone and missile hits, shocked the public, with Kremlin reassurances failing to alleviate concerns despite predictions of Ukraine's "completely catastrophic" situation.
President Trump's memorandum of understanding for a ceasefire with Iran addresses a political vulnerability for him but creates a significant political nightmare for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While the war with Iran has been unpopular among Americans, Israeli opinion polling indicates 79 percent of Israelis overwhelmingly support continuing the conflict.
Israel's war with Iran, launched in February 2026 with Operation Epic Fury, has created a structural trap, making victory, withdrawal, or sustained conflict impossible. Despite initial tactical successes like 900 strikes, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and damaging 80% of missile facilities, Israel failed to achieve political objectives; Khamenei's son succeeded him, Iran retained enriched uranium, and the IRGC remains intact.
American strategy in the South Caucasus and greater Eurasia must expand beyond traditional infrastructure, investing in secure telecom networks, cloud storage, cybersecurity, digital governance, online finance, and artificial intelligence. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent visit to Armenia highlighted Washington's expanding interest in the Middle Corridor, connecting Europe to Asia and bypassing Russia and Iran.
The United States faces an "AI shock" akin to the "China shock," with artificial intelligence poised to destroy jobs at a faster rate and wider scope than current government assistance can address. While AI promises significant productivity gains—a McKinsey study estimated $2.9 trillion to $6.4 trillion in new annual economic value for the U.S.
Eighty-five years ago, the Third Reich launched Operation Barbarossa against the USSR, initiating one of history's most destructive conflicts that ended in the mutual near-destruction of Europe's mightiest powers. Hitler's attack, involving 3 million men, 600,000 vehicles, and half a million horses, was based on optimistic assumptions and proved inadequate for Russia's vastness.
The wider U.S.-Israel-Iran war, which Lebanon was drawn into in early March, has been disastrous, expanding Israeli occupation and reviving Hezbollah's military activity. Diplomacy to end this conflict, particularly the U.S.-Iran MOU, places Lebanon prominently within the ceasefire framework, committing both sides to respecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
India's reported $1.2 billion acquisition of approximately 300 Russian R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles for its Su-30MKI fleet aims to counter Pakistan's Chinese PL-15 missile and J-10C fighter combination, addressing a perceived range gap. However, a serving Russian Colonel, A Yu Stepkin, writing in _Voyennaya Mysl_, argues that missile range alone is not the decisive factor in modern air combat.
Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, targeting Iran's military capabilities, but Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the U.S. Navy's near-perfect intercept record against Iranian threats, commercial transit collapsed to under a tenth of its pre-conflict volume due to prohibitive war-risk premiums, not a failure of tactical skill.
A new Iran war commenced on February 28, 2026, with a "mass decapitation" strike by the US and Israel targeting Iran's top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and key military figures. Iran retaliated by launching 1,471 ballistic missiles, with 650 aimed at Israel and others striking the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, causing property damage and killing 27 Israeli civilians.
Many U.S. adversaries, including China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, Hamas, and Hezbollah, have extensively developed underground military and strategic facilities, excavating thousands of miles of tunnels for manufacturing, airfields, living quarters, training, and missile storage. China is estimated to have over 3,000 miles of ballistic missile tunnels, and North Korea at least 5,000.
The war between the United States and Iran resulted in a U.S. military victory, inflicting substantial damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, air defenses, and command and control networks. However, the Iranian regime perhaps emerged strategically stronger, with its survival representing a meaningful victory for Tehran. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, still under negotiation, offers immediate benefits to Iran, including a ceasefire, lifted naval blockade, and oil waivers returning crude to market via the Strait of Hormuz.
Operation Barbarossa, launched 85 years ago by the Third Reich against the USSR, initiated one of history's most destructive conflicts, ultimately leading to the mutual near-destruction of Europe's mightiest powers. The attack involved 3 million men, 600,000 vehicles, and 500,000 horses, but its optimistic assumptions and Hitler's deviation from military maxims, like dividing forces and ignoring the culmination point, proved fatal.
On April 3, a United States Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle, call sign “Dude 44,” was shot down over southwestern Iran, marking the first loss of a manned US aircraft to enemy fire in the conflict. Initial reports suggested a Chinese-made MANPADS, but the F-15E pilot later claimed to have observed "multiple Iranian drones hovering in the air, moving as one, in a formation that resembled a jellyfish," sparking debate within the US intelligence community.
The President requested a record $1.5 trillion defense budget for the next fiscal year, a 50 percent increase over last year's baseline, to address a deteriorating security environment. This includes a shrinking, aging, and overcommitted U.S. military facing rising challengers like China and increased authoritarian state collusion. The proposal aims to counter China's military expansion, potential Taiwan contingencies, and naval capacity shortfalls, where China has surpassed the U.S.
Victor Cha's May/June 2026 article, "North Korea as It Is," which asserted that three decades of diplomacy constituted a strategic failure and that North Korean leaders were uniformly deceitful and determined to build a nuclear arsenal, is directly refuted by Choi Jong Kun and Joel S. Wit. They argue that Cha's narrative of diplomatic futility is fundamentally flawed.
Operation Sindoor in May 2025 demonstrated that classical air superiority is no longer achievable against capable adversaries, ushering in a "Zone of Ambiguity" characterized by mutual denial, political indecision, operational challenges from layered air defenses, and contested information narratives. Despite this, Indian airpower proved uniquely capable of delivering rapid, precise strategic effects, forcing Pakistan to request a ceasefire within 88 hours after an Indian S-400 destroyed a PAF AEW&C platform at 300 kilometers and BrahMos missiles cratered five Pakistani airbases.
China Coast Guard (CCG) and Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) agencies launched "law enforcement patrols" and a "special maritime traffic law enforcement operation" east of Taiwan in June. These operations test a "quasi-quarantine" model, projecting PRC maritime jurisdiction beyond the Taiwan Strait and building an interagency toolkit for gray-zone pressure around Taiwan.
The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) has advanced a provision in its annual defense policy bill to authorize a pilot program for the US government to partner with civilian contractors for cyber operations. This initiative aims to assess the feasibility of using civilian hackers with their own infrastructure to gain access to systems, all under the operational direction of US Cyber Command (CYBERCOM).
The Trump administration's recent restrictions on Anthropic's advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, are undermining critical U.S. cybersecurity outcomes and credibility. This policy shift, following Anthropic's silent response limitations and subsequent global model disablement due to a foreign national ban, highlights serious cybersecurity risks. However, an overemphasis on risk without a clear strategy could cause the United States to miss a generational opportunity to improve national cyber defenses.
The United States' technological dominance is eroding, as evidenced by a 39-day conflict against Iran from February 28 to April 8. Despite 13,000 U.S. strikes, Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones, destroying or damaging eight U.S. aircraft and killing seven service members, while maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States' retreat from global leadership under "America first" has created a vacuum, with some allied countries showing increased favorability towards China. However, China's "China first" strategy, prioritizing narrow national interests, suggests Beijing is not seeking to replace Washington as a global leader or assume superpower burdens.
The Pentagon's recently updated list of "Chinese military companies" includes the e-commerce giant Alibaba, a designation that appears strangely out of place compared to entities like the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). While AVIC's inclusion is based on direct state ownership and control, the Pentagon's two-sentence rationale for Alibaba's designation as a "military-civil fusion contributor" is "flimsier."
China's ability to seize Taiwan by force is currently insufficient, despite its significant military buildup over the past 30 years. Alarmist predictions about China's military outpacing the United States are misguided, as current military technology trends favor Taiwan and the U.S. China's investments have been distributed across multiple objectives, including global power projection and maritime defense, rather than solely focusing on a Taiwan invasion.
The United States and Iran announced a deal on June 14 to end their recent war, with a signing ceremony set for Friday. Key terms include an immediate ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, an Iranian pledge against nuclear weapons, and financial payout.
The planned diplomatic negotiations in Geneva between the US and Iran have been called off, underscoring the fragility of the current diplomatic process and the difficulty of translating military pressure into a sustainable political settlement. This conflict highlights a paradox of American power in the Middle East: unmatched military capabilities are insufficient to create a stable political order, illustrating the limits of US influence and the growing role of regional actors.