Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping resumed high-level political engagement in October 2024 and August–September 2025, marking a new chapter in India-China relations after a five-year border standoff. This shift follows India's previous position that broader ties were contingent on resolving border issues, which saw significant progress between 2020 and 2024.
Pakistan's strategic positioning has made it a "Connective State" in mediating the volatile U.S.-Iran confrontation, encompassing nuclear issues, regional instability, economic sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz security. Its suitability for this high-risk negotiation stems from its network positioning and multi-vector relationships with Western and Gulf countries, rather than economic or military strength.
James McDougall’s Worlds of Islam: A Global History argues Islam's global expansion stemmed from pragmatic adaptability and trade, not primarily coercive power, exemplified by its early presence in Guangzhou, China, and later in Indonesia. Merchants facilitated this spread, integrating into local cultures and shaping a malleable Islam that accommodated diverse traditions.
China's potential recovery of the Russian Far East coast, including Vladivostok, could bypass the West's island chain containment strategy, granting Beijing free access to the Pacific. This scenario, increasingly plausible as Russia weakens and depends more on China, would expose Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to simultaneous strategic threats across their defenses, undersea cables, and sea routes.
China claims to have developed an AI 'cyber nuclear weapon' that rivals advanced US models, signaling a new era of cyber warfare. This development follows the U.S. company Anthropic's 'superhuman' AI model, Mythos, which can identify and exploit sophisticated software vulnerabilities, prompting a U.S. government directive to restrict its access.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping's June 2026 trip to North Korea, where he and Kim Jong Un agreed to expand cooperation without mentioning denuclearization, signals a dangerous informal alignment of U.S. adversaries. This visit followed Russian President Vladimir Putin's 25th official trip to China, where he and Xi signed 20 agreements on trade, technology, and economic cooperation.
The United States currently leads the artificial intelligence hardware stack race, with Nvidia dominating global AI chip sales and installed computing capacity, accounting for roughly half the world’s installed AI chip stock and two-thirds of computing capacity. China's Huawei, despite technological inferiority, holds a strong domestic market position due to US export controls and Beijing's demand-side support, including subsidies and procurement preferences.
China's widely exported NORINCO VT-4 Main Battle Tank and CASC CH-4B combat drone consistently exhibit deficiencies, with the VT-4 facing thermal and metallurgical defects in Thailand and Nigeria, and CH-4B fleets experiencing crashes and groundings in Jordan, Iraq, and Algeria. These issues, alongside a post-Ukraine resurgence of Russian and American exporters and expanding US sanctions on Chinese military-industrial entities, are complicating Beijing's arms export trajectory.
The Marine Corps is establishing a new primary military occupational specialty (MOS) for scouts, designated as 0315, effective October 1. This new career field will create "26-Marine Scout Platoons" within infantry battalions and "Scout Teams" in light armored reconnaissance battalions. These scout units will be equipped with advanced optics, communications equipment, and drones to conduct reconnaissance and surveillance missions.
Sixty-two of the 100 most AI-exposed U.S. counties voted Democratic in the 2024 presidential election, indicating that potential political anxiety related to artificial intelligence job disruption is concentrated in blue-leaning areas. This correlation, reflecting occupational sorting, suggests workers in these counties, like New York and San Francisco, could become flashpoints for AI-related economic concern in upcoming midterm elections.
The 2026 World Cup is challenging the Trump administration's narrative of American homogeneity, particularly highlighted by the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) ironic "DEFEND THE HOMELAND" post featuring diverse USMNT players like Chris Richards, Sergiño Dest, and Folarin Balogun. This message, posted on Juneteenth, contrasts sharply with DHS policies that have turned back a leading referee from Somalia, kept Iran’s players on a day-to-day visa footing, and mounted a hare-brained challenge to the 14th Amendment.
The European Union’s Artificial Intelligence Act, conceived as a traditional _ex-ante_ product safety regulation, is fundamentally flawed because AI systems operate in unknown environments and take unforeseen actions, making an _ex-ante_ regime ineffective against unpredictable harm. This approach risks replicating the market concentration outcomes of the 2016 EU General Data Protection Regulation by disproportionately burdening smaller firms.
Bosnia and Herzegovina's national football team will face the United States at San Francisco Bay Area Stadium on July 1 in the World Cup's round of 32, marking their first-ever knockout stage appearance. This extraordinary sporting achievement transcends mere athletics, embodying an alternative future for a nation still grappling with nationalistic politics.
Russia has lost the military initiative in Ukraine, incurring significant costs. The Russian military has sustained 1.4 million battlefield casualties and approximately 450,000 deaths since its February 2022 full-scale invasion, based on new CSIS data. Furthermore, Russia's territorial control in Ukraine diminished during the spring of 2026.
Strategic Horizons 2026, v. 2, no. 1
A Vacuum of Strategy: America’s African Retreat and the New Great-Power ContestWill Libya Ever Be Whole Again? Prospects for Unity and Stability in a Fragmented StateSuppression of Enemy Air Defense: SEAD in Iran’s Defense DoctrineReforging the Arsenal of Democracy: The Ukraine Wake-Up CallChina’s Expanding Airpower in the Western Indian OceanUS–Mongolia Defense Relations: A Strategic Partnership in the Heart of AsiaMissile Defense Reimagined: A Theoretical Examination of the “Golden Dome” ProposalContinental Defense at a Crossroads: US Strategic Contingency Planning for an Independent AlbertaThe Dragon, the Jaguar, and the Eagle: The Rise of China in Mexico and Brazil, a Historical-Comparative AnalysisA Dragon in the Backyard: The People’s Republic of China’s Posture Plans Threaten Atlantic SecurityAn Officer of the Argentine Air Force in Vietnam
Ukrainian civilians in Kyiv face a deliberate Russian strategy of psychological warfare through intensified drone and missile attacks, aiming to exhaust and demoralize the population. The author, Mitzi Perdue, experienced a five-hour train delay to Kyiv due to drone threats, highlighting the pervasive disruption. Attacks, often occurring between midnight and 5 a.m., have escalated from "onesies and twosies" with 10 kg payloads to massive barrages like 656 drones and 73 missiles on June 2, killing 22 and injuring over 130.
US President Donald Trump's 2025 financial disclosure report, a 927-page document, revealed income streams during his first year in the White House. He earned over $1 billion from cryptocurrency dealings and millions from branded merchandise like his $1.8 million "Save America" book and $208,000 Trump-embossed Bible. First Lady Melania Trump generated $10.7 million from her Amazon documentary, $6 million from NFT sales, and $520,000 from her book.
The 2019 drone and cruise missile attack on Saudi Aramco, attributed to Iran, exposed the Iranian regime's radical nature and the absence of a meaningful American response, prompting Saudi Arabia to seek alternatives to US deterrence. This watershed event fostered the Abraham Accords and accelerated Saudi-Israel rapprochement.
Dutch defense company Destinus, founded by former Russian space entrepreneur Mikhail Kokorich, unveiled plans on May 18 to begin production of its Ruta Block 3 mini-cruise missile. This system offers a 1,242-mile range, surpassing the U.S. Tomahawk, and aims to provide Europe and Ukraine with a cheaper, mass-produced long-range strike capability.
Climate change is already imposing modest to significant costs on U.S. households, particularly affecting poorer families and those in the Gulf Coast, Florida, and parts of the West. A paper in the Fall 2025 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity estimates these costs range from $400 to $900 annually per household, with 10% of counties facing over $1,300 in annual costs under a less-conservative scenario.
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has allowed ships to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but remains fragile, dependent on U.S. domestic politics and Israel's adherence to a regional truce. Israel, not party to the talks, expresses deep displeasure with the 14-point plan binding it to a ceasefire.
The global energy crisis poses a concentrated stress test for Asian emerging economies, particularly due to the Strait of Hormuz's critical role as the most vital chokepoint in the global energy system. Roughly 20 percent of global oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade pass through the strait, with nearly 90 percent of these flows destined for Asian markets, as noted by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Australia’s National Intelligence Community (NIC) faces a growing mismatch between intelligence production and consumption in an AI-shaped information environment. While collection and analysis have advanced, intelligence product formats, delivery, and user experience have not, risking relevance as decision-makers expect faster, more interactive, and tailored information. The report explores three scenarios: secure conversational AI interfaces for direct querying, hyper-personalised products for decision-makers, and automated sanitisation and dissemination to expand reach across government and partners.
A U.S. missile strike on February 28, 2026, killed over 100 children at the Shajareh Tayyebeh primary school in Minab, Iran, marking the deadliest reported incident in the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Despite the Pentagon's silence and President Trump's denial of U.S. culpability, the Associated Press reconstructed the attack, revealing a U.S.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced on June 30 a partnership with defense contractor Anduril, designating it a "preferred edge provider" for national security. This collaboration aims to deliver high-capacity computing and AI for targeting and sensor fusion via Anduril's Menace-I mobile data centers, designed for austere tactical environments.
ASML, the Netherlands-based manufacturer of semiconductor lithography machines, recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Tata Electronics to accelerate the setup of Tata’s semiconductor fab in Dholera, India. This partnership, alongside MoUs with Tokyo Electron, Merck Electronics, ROHM, and Intel, signifies a deliberate effort to build a comprehensive semiconductor ecosystem in India, which has achieved critical mass to attract major players.
Pakistan has emerged as an indispensable intermediary, brokering the April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire and subsequent talks in Switzerland on June 21, 2026, leading to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. This diplomatic success has garnered significant international goodwill, positioning Pakistan closer to its founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah's vision of being "the pivot of the world."
China's expanding defence and security presence beyond the First Island Chain, across the Southwest Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Australia's maritime approaches, has reshaped regional dynamics over the last decade. Using a growing bluewater navy, paramilitary forces, and policing cooperation, China aims for "normalisation," where its access is expected and influence embedded.
The EU's policy of "de-risking" in science and technology cooperation with China, driven by growing economic and research security concerns, currently suffers from fragmented implementation across member states. The European Think Tank Network on China (ETNC) report examines diverse national approaches to China as a technological power and research partner, highlighting a patchwork of sometimes competing interests.
U.S.-China economic and technology competition in the biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and broader life sciences sector intensified in 2026, after gaining attention in 2025. This sector presents significant national security concerns due to biotechnology's intersection with advanced AI, alongside supply chain vulnerabilities, market access barriers in China, and cross-border data sharing challenges.
A Chinese supercomputer recently won the TOP500 race, but this achievement is not considered groundbreaking due to evolving computational priorities. The TOP500 benchmark, focused on classical supercomputing, rewards precision-heavy tasks like solving dense systems of linear equations using 64-bit floating-point math, which are CPU-friendly. However, the more relevant computational 'races' are now in AI and Quantum computing, which demand different hardware and mathematical approaches.
Iran's network of state-run "innovation houses" and trade platforms, particularly the Iran House of Innovation and Technology (iHiT) in Beijing, serves as a primary conduit for acquiring sanctioned dual-use technology from the People's Republic of China (PRC). This system, steered by Iran's Vice Presidency for Science, Technology, and Knowledge-Based Economy (VPST) and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-linked arm, embeds Iranian firms within the PRC's military-civil fusion and united front systems, directing them towards military-linked suppliers.
China's dominance in dual-use batteries poses a significant threat to US national security supply chains, impacting military hardware, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Alarmingly, China's growing footprint in the South Korean battery market, despite Seoul being the world's second-largest player, is evident as Chinese firms like BYD captured 30.9% of South Korea's EV registrations in Q1 2026 due to affordability.
US President Donald Trump made over $1.4 billion (£1.05 billion) from cryptocurrency business dealings in his first year back in office, according to his mandatory 927-page financial report. This income includes $635 million in royalties from Celebration Coins, linked to the $TRUMP meme coin, and over $500 million from World Liberty Financial, a firm founded by his sons.
Active-duty Army women are more likely to be killed by fellow service members than enemy combatants, according to a first-of-its-kind analysis by The Intercept. From 2011 to August 2025, at least 41 women died by homicide in the Army, over half by other service members or veterans, indicating a higher per capita homicide risk for Army women than male soldiers, contrary to national trends.