Turkic States Work to Develop Lapis Lazuli Corridor

Nargiza Umarova

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On March 15, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation organized the shipment of eight cargo exports via the Lapis Lazuli Corridor to Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Australia, and the European Union (Ariana News, March 15). The Lapis Lazuli Corridor, which runs from Afghanistan to Europe, was launched in 2018 and is of particular interest to Türkiye, one of the project’s initiators (CGTN, December 14, 2018). 

Ankara views this initiative as an opportunity to diversify export routes to Afghanistan and other South Asian countries while effectively realizing its own transit potential. Turkish transport policy designates the Lapis Lazuli Transit Corridor as an additional route of the Middle Corridor (Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, accessed March 31). Running from the Afghan border towns of Aqina and Torghundi through Turkmenistan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, it provides access to the Eurozone via Türkiye’s land and sea borders.

PLA upgrades ageing tanks with protection system for potential Taiwan operation

Liu Zhen

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The People’s Liberation Army has upgraded its ageing tanks for a potential Taiwan operation, equipping them with a system to counter drone attacks and anti-tank missiles, according to state media. Type 96A main battle tanks with the GL-6 active protection system, or APS, installed were shown in video footage released by official newspaper China Youth Daily on Monday.

The tanks belong to the 71st Group Army unit under the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command, which is mainly responsible for possible amphibious operations across the Taiwan Strait. The GL-6 is China’s response to the rapid development of anti-tank drones and loitering munitions – weapons used extensively in the war in Ukraine. It uses 360-degree radars, infrared and optoelectronic sensors to detect incoming threats – including drones, missiles and rockets – and automatically deploys interceptor munitions to neutralise them.

China plans AI-powered smart shipping system by 2027

Sylvia Ma

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China is ramping up efforts to deeply integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into its shipping industry by 2027, targeting breakthroughs in core technologies to build a smart maritime system as global competition intensifies.

A new action plan by the Ministry of Transport and three other government bodies outlined a road map that includes creating at least three comprehensive pilot zones, launching more than five trial routes, developing over 10 replicable smart-shipping use cases and deploying more than 100 smart vessels by that year.

As arms agreements fray, China secretly expands its nuclear weapons infrastructure

Tamara Qiblawi, Thomas Bordeaux, Yong Xiong, Gianluca Mezzofiore

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When three villagers from China’s Sichuan province wrote to local officials in 2022 asking why the government was confiscating their land and evicting them from their homes, they received a terse reply: It was a “state secret.” That secret, a CNN investigation has found, centered on China’s covert plans to massively expand its nuclear ambitions.

More than three years after the evictions, satellite images show, their village has been flattened and, in its place, new buildings erected to support some of China’s most important nuclear weapons production facilities. The expansion of the sites in Sichuan province, observed in satellite imagery and a review of dozens of Chinese government documents, supports recent claims by the administration of US President Donald Trump that Beijing has been conducting its most significant nuclear weapon modernization campaign in decades.

Why Chinese tech companies are racing to set up in Hong Kong

Sylvia Chang

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In a hotel lobby on Hong Kong Island, a delivery robot pauses outside one of the lifts as the doors open, and a guest steps out. The robot waits, and then rolls neatly inside. The move looks simple, but it isn't. To work in the busy hotel, owned by an international chain, the robot must navigate a building that won't slow down for it.

People are often getting in the way, and it must be able to take the lift to the correct floor, and then find the right room. The company behind the robot, Yunji, is a mainland Chinese tech business that is aiming to use Hong Kong as a springboard for successful overseas expansion.

Why it's a big deal that Iran destroyed an AWACS plane, an eye in the sky for U.S. forces

Sig Christenson

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When Iranian forces damaged a U.S. AWACS command-and-control plane sitting on the tarmac at a Saudi air base, they took out a jet often called the “crown jewel” of the Air Force. The loss of even one AWACS — leaving just 15 in service worldwide — was a blow to the military's ability to project power and protect U.S. forces. An AWACS (short for Airborne Warning and Control System) is a flying command center whose powerful radar and sensors can identify and track enemy planes and ships over a vast area.

The four-engine craft, a tricked-out military version of a Boeing 707 airliner, can transmit information on enemy movements and ensure that friendly aircraft don't mistake one another for an adversary, a vital function known as "de-confliction." The AWACS has been described as a "chess master" of the battle theater, an eye in the sky that knows where all the other chess pieces are and what they're up to.

Coordinated conflict: how the Ukraine and Iran wars are starting to overlap

Julian Borger and Pjotr Sauer

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The Iran and Ukraine wars are becoming more intertwined with every passing week – to the point that some analysts argue the two conflicts are beginning to merge. Quite how each war will affect the trajectory of the other is hard to predict, but it is already clear that their interconnectedness is drawing more countries into both cauldrons, extending an arc of instability that straddles Europe and the Middle East.

From Ukraine’s point of view, the connection is nothing new. Russia began using Iranian-made Shahed drones in September 2022, seven months into Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion. What is new is Moscow’s return of the favour to Tehran, with a reported flow of intelligence, targeting and drones to Iran after the US-Israeli assault on 28 February.

Hormuz disruption will change trade — and defense — at other chokepoints

Michael Kidd

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Major disruptions to maritime chokepoints always send ripples through the entire global network. Like voltage through an electrical grid, maritime commerce will shift to the path of least resistance, with nations forced to redistribute security assets accordingly. The current conflict with Iran is testing this concept in real time — and US government planners need to be paying attention, both for short-term and long-term planning.

Maritime canals, straits, and capes are not independent waterways with unchanging risk profiles. They are, in fact, interconnected points in a system within the global maritime network on which international commerce relies. Disruption in one location redistributes traffic worldwide, altering shipping costs, delivery timelines, and global capacity.

The Kurdish Side of the Iran War

Hamit Ekinci and Vassilis K. Fouskas

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Rojhelat (Iranian Kurdistan) has long been a core arena of Kurdish politics, even as the epicentre of mobilisation has shifted at different times to Iraq, Turkey or Syria. Many of the organisations active there today were founded before the Islamic Republic itself and have survived repeated waves of repression and exile. On 22 February 2026, five of the most prominent Iranian Kurdish parties (PDKI, PAK, PJAK, Khabat and Komala) announced the Coalition of Political Forces of Iranian Kurdistan, a new joint front. In their founding statement, they committed to working for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic and to securing the Kurdish right to self-determination through a democratic political framework in Rojhelat. 

Shortly afterwards, US and Israeli airstrikes destroyed many military and security facilities across Iranian Kurdistan. For observers in and around Rojhelat, the timing looked far from accidental: the creation of a unified Kurdish front and the sudden weakening of state infrastructure were widely read as connected developments and expectations quickly grew that Kurdish forces might move to take control of key cities.

How the Iran War Cracked Dubai’s Liberal Facade

Charlie Campbell

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On Tuesday, reports that an enormous Kuwaiti oil tanker had been set ablaze by an Iranian drone attack at Dubai Port made headlines across the globe. Cable news anchors pontificated on the possible environmental toll were the Al Salmi’s cargo of two million barrels of crude discharged into the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.

In the end, the fire was contained without any significant spill, according to local authorities, and the vessel’s 24 crew members emerged uninjured. Still, it was one of the most significant strikes by Tehran of the war so far—and remarkable for another reason: despite its prominent location, virtually no footage of the ship ablaze emerged at all.

Analysis: Russia and Ukraine intensify deep-strike drone war

Dylan Malyasov

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Russia and Ukraine sharply increased long-range strike operations in March, with both sides expanding drone and missile attacks deep beyond the front lines, according to a new assessment provided by ACLED senior analyst Witold Stupnicki.

The data points to a sustained rise in strike intensity, highlighted by what ACLED described as a record 948-drone Russian attack carried out over March 23–24 and a parallel increase in Ukrainian strikes targeting critical infrastructure inside Russia.

The latest figures suggest that the war’s long-range strike campaign is entering a new phase, with operational pressure no longer confined to frontline positions. ACLED said Russia recorded more than 3,000 strikes in March, up from 2,712 in February, while Ukrainian strikes across Russian territory exceeded 1,400 during the same month, spanning 27 regions. That upward trend, according to the assessment, reflects a deliberate escalation rather than an isolated spike in activity.

The age of the aircraft carrier is over

Andrew Cockburn

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Ever since World War Two, America’s aircraft carrier fleets have served as imposing instruments of imperial power, roaming the oceans to cow recalcitrant nations into obedience. Favored by the Trump administration for this purpose, current experience indicates their day is done thanks to the proliferation of anti-ship missiles and the increasing ubiquity of drones.

In America’s last Middle Eastern war but two, against the Yemeni Houthis in 2025, the carrier USS Harry S.Truman, complete with its attendant escorts, was driven into retreat, leaving antagonists in control of the Red Sea. On one occasion, the carrier’s desperate maneuver to avoid a Houthi drone caused an $80 million Hornet jet fighter to slide off the deck and topple into the sea. The Navy has gone to great lengths to defend its cherished ‘flattops,’ whose principal function appears to be defending themselves

The Iran conflict is teaching the wrong lessons for the Pacific

Mark R. Kennedy, 

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Washington risks drawing the wrong lessons from the conflict with Iran.

The U.S. has demonstrated impressive operational capability — striking targets at range, degrading missile systems and projecting power across the region. But those successes risk reinforcing a dangerous assumption: that future conflicts will look the same.

They won’t.

In the conflict with Iran, the U.S. has relied heavily on carrier strike groups and maritime operations. Geography works in America’s favor. Forces can operate from the sea without depending heavily on vulnerable land-based infrastructure.

China is moving faster on next-gen tech. The U.S. is trying to keep up

CHRIS STOKEL-WALKER

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The urgency is no longer abstract. In recent weeks, China approved the world’s first commercial brain-computer interface medical device and unveiled a five-ton class electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft that has already completed a public flight. At the same time, U.S. agencies are scrambling to speed up approvals in areas like aviation and biotech, even as layoffs and political pressure threaten to thin out oversight.

In both Washington and Beijing, senior officials are no longer hedging: This is, they openly say, a race for technological supremacy. Last year, Michael Kratsios, the science advisor to the president, called China the U.S.’s “most formidable technological and scientific competitor.” More recently, the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy has similarly described a global race for tech supremacy.

Trump is at a strategic dead end on Iran; the war will reshape Gulf’s security architecture:

Stanly Johny

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U.S. President Donald Trump has no solution for the chokehold that Iran is putting on global markets and if he escalates the war further, he would make the problem even worse, says Vali Nasr, professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, and a former U.S. State Department Advisor.

In an interview with The Hindu, Mr. Nasr says Iran might be open for a deal on its nuclear programme but not on its missiles or its control over the Strait of Hormuz. Once the war is over, Persian Gulf countries will have to reassess their security relations with the U.S., he added. Edited excerpts.

Ukraine–Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement Highlights Demand for Battle-Tested Expertise

Yuri Lapaiev

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced on March 27 that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense had signed a cooperation agreement with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense. The agreement will open a path for technological cooperation, joint defense projects, and military production. According to Zelenskyy, it could be mutually beneficial for both countries (X/@ZelenskyyUa, March 27). This agreement highlights Ukraine’s prominence in military–technical expertise and strengthens Ukraine’s security diplomacy.

Operation Epic Fury and wider conflict in the Middle East generated increased interest in Ukraine’s military experience from Gulf countries. Ukraine has been combating Iranian-style drones and ballistic missiles—albeit from Russia—for more than four years. In March, Kyiv sent more than 200 of its air defense experts as advisors to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Saudi Arabia (YouTube/@PresidentGovUa, March 17). Zelenskyy has stated that Ukraine is ready to offer similar agreements to all its partners, ranging from technical cooperation on drones to future defense alliances.

The World: Trump’s Iran endgame?

Alicia P.Q. Wittmeyer

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Good morning, world. I’m writing this newsletter in advance of the speech President Trump is set to give tonight about the war in Iran.

Over the past four weeks, his statements about America’s goals for this war have been wildly inconsistent. But Trump and his administration have been sending signals that they might be getting ready to pack up and go home. “We will be leaving very soon,” Trump told reporters on Tuesday, giving a timeline of two to three weeks.

Will he follow through? Today’s newsletter is about what the U.S. would leave behind in Iran and the Middle East if he does. The aftermath of attacks in Tehran yesterday. Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times

After the Fury: War, Allies, and the World America Is Making

Mick Ryan

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Thirty-three days into Operation Epic Fury, the President of the United States of America addressed the American people – and many others around the world – about the goals and achievements of the American-Israeli campaign against Iran. Trump’s address offered some clarity on the objectives of the war, but it provided minimal new insights into the military campaign.

Ultimately, the speech by the American president failed to provide any narrative about what victory looked like in the war, or how long it might take. Beyond a recounting of the length of previous American wars, which came across as scolding his audience for being impatient, we still have no clearer view on how this war ends.

Thursday briefing: ​Why does Donald Trump have it in for the UK?

Patrick Greenfield 

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Good morning. Another week, another tirade against the UK from Donald Trump. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has further inflamed tensions in the special relationship, which was already under strain from attacks by the capricious US leader. So far this week, Trump has once again mocked the UK’s navy, instructed allies worried about jet fuel supplies to take it from the strait of Hormuz themselves, and announced that the US is considering leaving Nato.

The outbursts have become a pattern since the war with Iran began – and mark a departure from the unlikely friendly relationship Starmer and Trump have enjoyed until now. But why, exactly? To understand why the special relationship has become the focus of Trump’s irritation, I spoke with David Smith, the Guardian’s Washington bureau chief. But first, the headlines.

 

Is China positioning itself to become a US-Iran peace broker?

Simone McCarthy, Sophia Saifi

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As the war in the Gulf careens into its second month, dragging down the global economy with no off-ramp in sight, questions are deepening around what role China – a global heavyweight and diplomatic partner to Iran – is willing to play. China’s potential role was in the spotlight this week after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing Tuesday for talks with its top diplomat Wang Yi – a meeting that comes as Islamabad has stepped up to position itself as a peace broker in the conflict.

In a statement on “restoring peace” released Tuesday, both countries called for an “immediate ceasefire,” peace talks “as soon as possible,” and a lasting, UN-backed peace.

Oil briefly falls below $100 and shares jump on Trump Iran war pledge

Osmond Chia

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Oil prices briefly fell below $100 a barrel and shares opened higher in Europe on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said the US will leave Iran in "two to three weeks" regardless of whether a deal is struck with Tehran. Brent crude ticked down to $98.65 before inching back up to $101 following Trump's pledge and ahead of a speech this evening when he will "provide an important update on Iran".

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index rose 1.3%. In Germany, the Dax traded 2.1% higher and France's Cac added 1.8%. Since the US-Israel war with Iran, oil and gas prices have soared after Tehran threatened to attack vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting the key shipping route. On Wednesday, QatarEnergy said a fuel oil tanker the company leased had been "the subject of a missile attack" in the early hours of the morning.

Iran Threatens to Target U.S. Tech Firms if War Continues to Escalate

Miranda Jeyaretnam

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If the U.S. continues to attack and kill Iran’s leaders, more than a dozen leading American technology firms could become targets for retaliation, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is part of the Iranian Armed Forces, warned on Tuesday. The IRGC said it will target 18 tech firms, including Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, in retaliation “for every assassination in Iran” starting on Wednesday at 8 p.m. Tehran time (12:30 p.m. E.T.). The IRGC’s statement was released by semi-official, IRGC-linked Tasnim news agency.

The companies were named because of their alleged involvement in enabling the assassinations of dozens of Iranian leaders since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28. The U.S. and Israel have killed Supreme leader Ali Khamenei, Revolutionary Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Pakpour, and top security chief Ali Larijani, among others. U.S. President Donald Trump has also hinted that his aims in Iran include regime change, while Israel has threatened to target any future leader of the Iranian regime, including Khamenei’s successor and son Mojtaba Khamenei.

What do Trump's latest comments on leaving Nato mean for the alliance?

Lyse Doucet

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Of all the warnings in President Trump's arsenal, quitting the Nato military alliance is among those he's wielded the most.

Now he's doing it again.

Asked by Britain's Telegraph newspaper if he is reconsidering US membership of Nato, he said: "Oh yes… I would say [it's] beyond reconsideration" – fuming again that his partners weren't joining America's military operations, alongside Israel, against Iran.

"I just think it should be automatic," he emphasised in his remarks to the paper.

Trump's invective underlines again his misunderstanding of how this 32-member alliance works.

Nato's Article 5 does commit it to collective defence. An attack against one member is deemed to be an attack against all but invoking this principle requires a consensus. And the 1949 treaty only referred to crises in Europe and North America.

Cyber Warfare 101: Bluff Don’t Tell

Jan Kallberg

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US political scientist Kenneth N. Waltz wrote in 1990 that the power of nuclear weapons resides in what a nation can do, not what it does. Similar rules apply to cyber threats: uncertainty over possible capabilities is far more powerful than absolute certainty over their limitations and shortcomings. For a decade, there has been a steady stream of concerns and reports about Iran’s cyber capabilities, fueled by bold statements from Tehran. They have reached new levels during the US-Israeli war on Iran, with assertions that Western infrastructure, businesses, and governments could be severely damaged by cyberattacks.

As the air campaign began on February 28, there was widespread understanding that cyber retaliation against the $30 trillion US economy was on its way. Declaring that it was the “response to ongoing cyber assaults against the infrastructure of the Axis of Resistance,” Handala, an Iran-linked hacking group, said the world would see the wrath of the Islamic Republic and its cyber warfare units.

Afghans Fear for Safety as War Returns

Ruchi Kumar

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Born and raised in Kabul, Haroon, a 45-year-old former educator who asked to use a pseudonym due to safety fears, is no stranger to the sound of explosions. But he wasn’t expecting to be jolted awake on the night of Feb. 26 as the sound of nearby airstrikes reverberated across his house in West Kabul.

“At first, we thought it was an earthquake, but then we heard two more explosions,” he told Foreign Policy.

Does Iran’s Future Look Like Cuba, Syria, or North Korea?

H.A. Hellyer

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As the war in Iran grinds on, the tension between the Israeli and Gulf approaches has sharpened. Iran’s strikes on Gulf territory mean there will be no return to business as usual. Arab Gulf states are increasingly leaning toward effectively quarantining Iran until it becomes something akin to Cuba: diminished and rigid but contained. Israel, by contrast, is perfectly content to smash the country—degrade the Islamic Republic militarily until it is like civil-war era Syria: fractured, with the regime broken and its regional capacity destroyed.

Aside from some divergences, Gulf states want to degrade Iran’s power without pushing it to collapse. With this in mind, Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait have quietly pushed for a swift end to the war; Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have signaled their readiness to absorb further escalation if it produces durable constraints on Iran’s military capabilities. Officials in Abu Dhabi have argued for a “conclusive outcome,” while Oman and Qatar have emphasized coexistence and negotiation. But despite these differences, there is a consensus on wanting to see Iran weakened.

The Iran War Is a Hostage Crisis

David Ignatius

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Let’s examine how the Iran war became what is essentially a hostage crisis: President Donald Trump joined Israel on Feb. 28 in an assault on Iran that demonstrated masterful military tactics but poor strategic planning. Iran responded with ballistic missiles and drones - and, most important, by closing the vital Strait of Hormuz. That last action took not just America but the entire global economy captive.

Iran Gets a Vote in This War

Mark Hertling

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THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION APPEARS to have gone to war against Iran with two assumptions: First, they assumed they could adjust their objectives as the war went on based on how much they thought they would accomplish; and second, they assumed that because the United States and Israel are, together, militarily superior to Iran, they would have complete control over the timing, intensity, domains, repercussions, and outcomes of the conflict, and they could determine the end of the conflict when they decided.

Those are dangerous assumptions. Just a few weeks into the war, they are being tested. While it’s common for war aims to shift over the course of a conflict, doing so is a complicated and delicate process that requires military leaders and politicians to balance political desires against military realities. This administration, which has repeatedly proven to be improvisatory in its approach to policy and rhetoric, has so far in this conflict not been able to manage that balance between political desires and military actions.

As for the second assumption—every soldier, sailor, marine, airman, and guardian knows and often repeats this truism: The enemy always gets a vote.

WAR ALWAYS BEGINS WITH POLITICS. Political leaders define the objectives of the conflict—the ends that the nation seeks to achieve. Military planners then develop the ways to pursue those ends through campaigns, operations, and even specific battles. Finally come the means: the forces, resources, and capabilities required to execute the plan. This framework—ends, ways, and means—is not simply an abstraction taught in war colleges. It is the basic logic that connects political objectives to military action. When those three elements align, military operations can achieve meaningful strategic outcomes. When there is even the slightest misalignment, leaders discover that even the most powerful military can find itself operating without a clear direction.

Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle

Raphael S. Cohen

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The Iran war is just over a month old, and the prevailing opinion among the commentariat is that it’s already a “quagmire,” if not a “catastrophe.” Critics have compared the conflict to the United States’ invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, its intervention in the Korean War, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and, of course, the most traumatic U.S. foreign-policy debacle, Vietnam.

Iran Flexes Its Cyber Chops

Rishi Iyengar

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One prominent hacking group secured a particularly attention-grabbing moment on Friday, compromising an old personal email address belonging to FBI Director Kash Patel and publishing many of its contents online, including an old resume and pictures of him smoking cigars and posing in a mirror with a bottle of rum.

What a U.S. Operation to Get Iran’s Uranium Would Look Like

John Haltiwanger

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Trump has gone back and forth on this issue rapidly, so it’s difficult to determine where he stands. On March 29, for example, Trump suggested that Iran would be destroyed if it didn’t give its HEU to the United States. “They’re going to give us the nuclear dust,” Trump said, in reference to the HEU. “If they don’t do that, they’re not going to have a country,”

Trump Faces a Decision on Whether to Start a Ground War in Iran

David E. Sanger and Tyler Pager

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As the war in Iran has entered its second month with no negotiations yet scheduled between the major combatants, President Trump is facing several interlocking decisions that will determine how long American forces will stay engaged in the battle, and with what kind of risks.

The most pressing choice seems to be whether he should narrow his war aims in hopes of pushing through a negotiated settlement with a new crop of Iranian leaders. Talking to reporters on Sunday night aboard Air Force One, Mr. Trump called the Iranian leadership “a whole different group of people” who have “been very reasonable.” (His secretary of state, Marco Rubio, was significantly more skeptical.) Deal-making, as Mr. Trump knows, requires give-and-take — although he generally dislikes being seen as giving an inch.

But if the Iranians continue to rebuff him, claiming as they did on Monday that there is nothing to talk about until the United States and Israel stop bombing Iranian territory, he has different choices to make.

With more than 4,000 Marines and the 82nd Airborne Division about to arrive in the region, Mr. Trump can put muscle behind his threat to take Kharg Island’s oil-exporting facilities, free the Strait of Hormuz and perhaps seize Iran’s cache of near-bomb-grade nuclear material.

But the risks of all three steps are enormous. Even Mr. Trump admitted on Sunday that if he sent troops to seize Kharg Island, keeping it operating would require the U.S. military “to be there for a while.” The same goes for opening the strait, which the Iranians now say is their sovereign territory — and that ships wanting to pass will have to pay the multimillion-dollar tolls they have begun to impose.

Control of the strait was not even an issue four weeks ago, when the war started. But Iran’s assertion of control over traffic has so disrupted the global trading system that it looms large in any discussion of how the conflict gets resolved.

Trump’s Propaganda Machine Is Flailing on Iran

Ross Barkan

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Watch enough Pentagon press conferences and a running theme emerges: Pete Hegseth whining about media coverage of the war in Iran. “You’re either informing American people of the truth or you’re not,” the Defense secretary and former Fox News pundit fumed recently. “Behind every headline you write, there’s a helicopter crew in the air, and behind every news banner you write, there’s a battalion on the move. And behind every fake news story, there’s an F-35 pilot executing a dangerous mission. My message to the media is get it right.”

The media, of course, is getting it right. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu’s war has been an abject disaster. It’s a victory for the West that the murderous Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is now dead, but little has otherwise changed: Khamenei’s son is in charge, and the theocratic, autocratic regime remains functional. Israel’s apparent belief that the Iranian people would successfully overthrow the regime if a bombing campaign commenced was entirely mistaken. Netanyahu doesn’t seem to care much either way since he has moved on to immiserating Lebanon, but it’s now clear the war has offered little for the world but needless bloodshed and chaos. A decade ago, Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran was a peaceful, clearheaded attempt to head off further disaster. Diplomacy had a chance. Now, the Middle East is on fire, thousands of civilians are dead, and the U.S. troop death toll threatens to skyrocket if Trump launches any sort of ground invasion as he has indicated he might. The Strait of Hormuz remains throttled; a global energy crisis is already here and, with it, far higher prices at American gas pumps.

Hegseth can pretend all this isn’t true. MAGA has long dwelled within its own propaganda bubble, and that will continue as long as Trump remains in power. For the hard right of Congress and a slice of the most conservative Americans, Trump and his acolytes can continue to lie with impunity. They can, as Karl Rove once infamously declared, create their own reality. But there are limits to all this, as Hegseth, in his whimpering media events, is beginning to find. In a fractured media age, government propaganda is only so effective. Americans still live in a democracy with free access to information and can make up their own minds. They can focus on their own material reality. They cannot be told, wholesale, what to think.

The Real War for Iran’s Future

Afshon Ostovar

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On March 1, 2026, the Iranian government made it official. “After a lifetime of struggle,” a state broadcaster declared, “Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei drank the sweet, pure draft of martyrdom and joined the Supreme Heavenly Kingdom.” The broadcaster praised Khamenei for being “unceasing and untiring” and for his “lofty and celestial spirit.” As he read the announcement, people offscreen wailed. When he finished, he, too, broke down in tears.

Most Iranians probably didn’t cry when they learned of Khamenei’s passing. For over 35 years, Iran’s supreme leader ruled with an iron fist, repressing women, minorities, and anyone who dared challenge him. But the dramatic wording of the death announcement was, in a sense, warranted: more than anyone else, Khamenei is the architect of the Islamic Republic and all it has entailed. Although it was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who established the theocracy by seizing power during Iran’s 1979 revolution, it was his successor who transformed it into the country it is now. It was Khamenei who ensured that the supreme leader remained Iran’s paramount authority in practice, not just in principle. It was Khamenei who pushed Iran to pursue regional hegemony, thus committing it to perpetual conflict with Israel and the United States. And it was Khamenei who transformed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), once a military with an uncertain future, into the central pillar of the government.

The Iranian elite moved quickly to name a replacement. Just over a week after his death, the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body tasked with appointing the supreme leader, announced that Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, would assume the position. But speed and lineage will not prevent a power vacuum in Iran. Only the elder Khamenei had the experience and standing required to keep the regime’s various camps in check. As a result, Iran’s top officials are now lining up to chart the country’s future.

At the time of this writing, the actors best positioned to succeed are those affiliated with the IRGC, Mojtaba Khamenei included. As Iran’s strongest armed actor, it has the resources to impose its will on the country’s populace. This bodes poorly for Iran. The IRGC’s leaders are, for the most part, hard-liners who thrive in perpetual conflict with both external and internal forces. If they solidify power, Tehran will remain reflexively antagonistic toward Israel, the United States, and pro-democracy elements inside the country.

The Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Closure

Milton Ezrati

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The current energy crisis, luckily, will not usher in a return to the inflation-laden economy of the 1970s.

The war in the Persian Gulf—whether one supports the effort or not—presents all sorts of frightening prospects. News of negotiations briefly offers hope of an end to destruction and a clear path forward, while denials that talks have begun dash those hopes. As long as the fighting continues, it is hard to see an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, much less allow an assessment of the conditions that might ultimately impinge on shipping there. Possibilities—good, bad, and ambiguous—seem endless.

For business and the economy, however, some things are certain. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has, for the time being, denied the world some 20 percent of its seaborne oil and natural gas supplies. That includes every bit of Iran’s production, just about all of it going to China, but also much Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, and Emirati oil and gas, most of it going to Europe, Japan, and elsewhere in Asia. The other stark fact is how oil and natural gas prices have soared. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has risen over 60 percent from $62 in mid-February to just over $100 at the time of writing. Bent crude has seen its price rise by a comparable percentage, approaching $110 a barrel.

These matters have unleashed a torrent of scare stories in media outlets that variously envision debilitating inflation akin to what happened in the economically bleak 1970s, the end of any hope for more affordable lifestyles, recession, and stagflation. All of these, of course, are completely plausible, but much else in this admittedly uncertain situation points to less dramatic and less frightening economic repercussions.