Microsoft Confirms Active 0-Day Exploit—Check Emergency Mitigation

Forbes  |  Davey Winder

The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has confirmed active exploitation of a critical Microsoft Exchange zero-day vulnerability, CVE-2026-42897, adding it to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog. This spoofing vulnerability, affecting on-premises Exchange Server versions (2016, 2019, Subscription Edition) but not Exchange Online, allows unauthenticated remote code execution when a maliciously crafted email is opened in Outlook Web Access. Microsoft recommends immediate mitigation via its Exchange Emergency Mitigation Service (EEMS), urging organizations to enable and validate its functionality, specifically checking for mitigation ID M2.1.x. Experts warn that a pending formal patch forces a mitigation-only posture, making prompt EEMS validation crucial to prevent full domain compromise. This incident underscores the inherent risks of on-premises Exchange and advocates for accelerated migration to Exchange Online or the implementation of zero-trust gateways to secure enterprise communications.

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Target Audience Analysis of the Iranian Lego Video: Unpacking the Virality of AI Propaganda

EdgeTheory

Iranian regime-aligned AI-generated propaganda videos are rapidly spreading across Western and global social media, evolving modern information operations beyond traditional state propaganda. These Lego-style animated videos, leveraging AI-generated battle scenes and meme formats, embed ideological narratives within entertainment content optimized for platforms like X, TikTok, Instagram, and Telegram. EdgeTheory's research indicates this campaign achieved over 145 million views in March alone, prioritizing rapid visibility and emotional engagement over direct persuasion. The content targets diverse audiences, including younger Western users, anti-establishment communities, and politically disengaged groups, by blending geopolitical messaging with internet culture. This strategy normalizes Iranian narratives and softens perceptions of the regime, even through ironic or humorous engagement. Effective mitigation requires counter-messaging that mirrors the speed, format, and emotional appeal of the original content, combining rapid detection with equally engaging counter-content to promote media literacy and expose manipulation tactics, as traditional fact-checking is insufficient.

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The Indo-Pacific and the Challenge of Multilateral AI Governance

The National Bureau of Asian Research | Renan Araujo

Indo-Pacific countries have actively shaped international AI governance, leading initiatives like the G-7 Hiroshima AI Process and contributing to the International Network for Advanced AI Measurement, Evaluation and Science. However, this multilateral momentum faces headwinds from the United States' preference for bilateral agreements[1] and China's centralized proposals, which lack broad participation[2]. Opportunities for AI cooperation persist within existing security partnerships such as the Quad and AUKUS, and economic organizations like APEC and ASEAN, focusing on joint operational testbeds, defense-oriented testing, early-warning incident reporting, shared procurement, regional compute hubs, and talent retention programs[8]. Domestically, Indo-Pacific nations should build technical capacity and institutional infrastructure, leveraging their access to semiconductor supply chains, critical minerals, and data center investments to prepare for AI's transformative impact.

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Part 2: The U.S. Munitions Problem

Small Wars Journal

The U.S. munitions inventory has been significantly depleted following a 39-day air campaign against Iran, raising concerns about preparedness for future conflicts, particularly against adversaries like China. A CSIS report indicates that while current operations are not constrained, long-term readiness is weakened. Key long-range precision fires, such as the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM), saw over 1,000 units each expended, representing a substantial portion of available theater stocks. The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a newer system, also saw 40-70 units used from a small initial inventory. Delivery times for these critical munitions average around four years, exacerbating resupply challenges and impacting allied capacity-building efforts, such as delayed TLAM deliveries to Japan. The heavy reliance on these systems, crucial for standoff capabilities against robust air defenses, underscores an urgent need for faster procurement and production to meet future demand, especially in the Indo-Pacific.

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Drone Swarms Packed Into Unassuming Containers Sought By DARPA

The War Zone | Joseph Trevithick

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is actively soliciting concepts for highly autonomous drone swarms, specifically seeking containerized systems capable of launching, recovering, and sustaining up to 500 Group 1-3 drones for multi-day operations. This initiative aims to create self-sufficient “autonomous constellations” deployable in contested areas or behind enemy lines, addressing current limitations in drone endurance, payload capacity, and recovery infrastructure. Recent conflicts, such as Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb and Israel’s near-field attacks from within Iran, underscore the strategic value of such capabilities. While the global market for containerized launch systems is growing, with China's DAMODA demonstrating advanced commercial systems, DARPA's focus on full autonomy, recovery, and sustained operations distinguishes its requirements from existing solutions.

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The age of asymmetry – the weak have learned how to make the strong bleed

Tomorrow's Affairs  |  John Sipher

The age of asymmetry has fundamentally reshaped modern conflict, revealing that military superiority no longer guarantees political victory for strong powers, as evidenced by historical and contemporary struggles. U.S. Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller's 2026 comments, reflecting a belief that power is self-justifying, are challenged by the realities of modern warfare. Examples from Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza demonstrate that weaker adversaries survive punishment and deny victory by employing asymmetric strategies, including dispersed forces, drones, missiles, proxies, cyber campaigns, and information manipulation. This dynamic means that while firepower still matters, survivability, legitimacy, endurance, and adaptation are often more critical. The article argues that this challenges great powers like the United States and China, suggesting that conquering and pacifying territories like Taiwan could be far more difficult and costly than imagined. Furthermore, the casual use of force by great powers inadvertently incentivizes weaker states to pursue nuclear deterrence, viewing conventional weakness as an invitation to intervention.

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Irregular Warfare, Part Two: AI Approaches, Implications, and Proposed Recommendations

Institute for National Strategic Studies  |  Jocelyn Garcia, Dr. James Giordano

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and non-kinetic irregular warfare (IW) represents a significant strategic threat, enabling adversaries like the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and Iran to operationalize asymmetries at scale. These nations employ doctrines such as "unrestricted warfare" and "reflexive control" to conduct algorithmically mediated cognitive campaigns, shaping perceptions of truth, threats, and institutional trust. AI compresses the temporal interval for narrative dissemination, exploiting bureaucratic latency and rendering truth uncertain, which can fracture allied cohesion and impede coordinated responses. The expanded battlespace now encompasses cognition and social confidence, allowing adversaries to probe vulnerabilities below kinetic engagement thresholds. To counter this, the article recommends establishing a dedicated AI-IW threat intelligence center, developing cognitive resistance programs for personnel and allies, integrating AI surveillance and countermeasures into operational doctrine, and funding a national AI-IW research and development program. The United States must recognize AI as a force multiplier in IW, demanding resource commitment and doctrinal innovation akin to kinetic threats.

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The Steppe Is Not a Fortress: What Mongolia Can Learn from Iran’s Mosaic Defense

Small Wars Journal | Siamak Naficy

Mongolia, a small state situated between Russia and China, should adopt a "mosaic defense" strategy, inspired by Iran's approach, to enhance its survivability against technologically superior adversaries. This strategy rejects the vulnerable "fortress model" of centralized command, which is easily paralyzed by precision strikes and cyber disruption. Iran's mosaic defense deliberately disperses critical capabilities, duplicates command authority, and localizes logistics, enabling semi-autonomous units like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij to function even if central command is degraded. For Mongolia, this necessitates decentralizing its highly concentrated infrastructure and decision-making authority away from Ulaanbaatar, embracing pre-authorization where local commanders act on intent rather than real-time instructions. While Mongolia cannot replicate Iran's external horizontal escalation, it can leverage its geographic position, critical mineral resources, and "third neighbor" diplomacy to internationalize conflicts and raise adversary costs. However, decentralized systems carry risks of internal manipulation, requiring robust authentication and clear authority boundaries. The article emphasizes that Mongolia must abandon the illusion of protecting the state by protecting its center, rediscovering its historical strength in dispersion and endurance.

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Director of Pentagon’s secretive Strategic Capabilities Office lays out focus areas

DefenseScoop  |  Jon Harper

The Pentagon's secretive Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO), led by Director Jay Dryer, is executing a $1.7 billion budget this year to rapidly prototype and transition "game-changing" high-tech solutions for near-term challenges. The SCO operates across three core portfolios: long-range fires, autonomy and AI, and "special and enabling capabilities" like cyber, electronic warfare, space, and special operations forces. Its eight focus areas include precision fires, contested logistics, novel employment, deception, advanced kill webs, countering adversary kill chains, extended reach and survivability, and cost-effective air defense. Dryer emphasized that the SCO prioritizes warfighter needs over technology, adopting a service-agnostic and cross-domain approach to develop disruptive capabilities. The office collaborates with combatant commands and industry, focusing on demonstrating efficacy and adapting to evolving threats. Notable projects include Ghost Fleet unmanned vessels, the Hypervelocity Gun Weapon System, and the Pele nuclear power plant program.

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Professional Military Education Is a National Security Imperative

Military Review | Lt. Gen. Mike Plehn, US Air Force, Retired

The United States military's Professional Military Education (PME) is a critical national security imperative, particularly as the character of warfare rapidly evolves with technologies such as lethal drones, cyberattacks, and artificial intelligence. The 2020 Joint Chiefs of Staff vision, _Developing Today’s Joint Officers for Tomorrow’s Ways of War_, underscores the necessity of deliberately developing intellectual and experiential capabilities through a four-element framework: training, education, experience, and self-improvement. This framework distinguishes between training for certainty and educating for uncertainty, fostering critical thinking for complex decision-making in crises. Historically, U.S. PME institutions, including war colleges, emerged after major conflicts to enhance military performance. The article highlights the value of in-residence PME, such as programs at the National Defense University, for cultivating strategic thought and leadership. Ultimately, a broadly and well-educated military, encompassing both officers and enlisted personnel, is deemed essential for assessing complex situations, formulating effective approaches, and ensuring the military instrument of power best supports national interests and safeguards liberty.

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Modeling the Lethality of Small Attack Drones and Loitering Munitions

Small Wars Journal |   Federico Borsari

A probabilistic model assesses the lethality of small tactical strike drones, including FPV quadcopters and loitering munitions, challenging the assumption that inexpensive FPV drones are universally effective across diverse operational environments. This model, considering target acquisition, system survival against countermeasures, and warhead lethality, provides a flexible analytical tool. While FPV drones excel in mass-centric, attritional conflicts like Ukraine, their limitations in manpower intensity, environmental susceptibility, interoperability, and sustainment render them suboptimal for demanding, dispersed operations with contested logistics. The US Marine Corps' selection of Teledyne FLIR’s Rogue-1 and Anduril’s Bolt-M for its Organic Precision Fires-Light (OPF-L) program exemplifies the need for robust, costlier solutions. The model demonstrates that high-end loitering munitions offer significantly greater reliability and lethality, especially in contested environments against peer adversaries, justifying their procurement where mass alone is insufficient.

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Iran’s positions at the NPT Review Conference are rational. Ignoring them would weaken the treaty

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists  |  Syed Ali Zia Jaffery

Iran's consistent positions at the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference, articulated in several working papers, advocate for the condemnation and legal accountability of attacks on safeguarded nuclear facilities, provision of negative security assurances, nuclear disarmament, the establishment of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East, and the inalienable right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. The article highlights recent US-Israeli strikes on Iranian safeguarded nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in 2025 and 2026, as actions that significantly undermine the NPT's credibility. These attacks, interpreted as an escalatory and illegal action, demonstrate that an NPT non-nuclear-weapon state's installations are vulnerable to both non-NPT nuclear-armed states and NPT nuclear-weapon states. Ignoring Iran's "rational" demands, particularly regarding the protection of its nuclear infrastructure, risks weakening the treaty's foundational principles and its ability to ensure international security and non-proliferation, as well as violating the treaty’s preamble.

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The BRICS+ Are Still Alive and Kicking

IAI  |  Ernesto Gallo

The BRICS+ group, despite persistent Western narratives of its decline due to internal differences and geopolitical tensions, demonstrates remarkable resilience and potential for reconfiguration. India, a core member, distanced itself from BRICS military exercises in January 2026, and the Iran war exposed rifts, particularly between new members Iran and the UAE. However, the conflict did not fracture the bloc; Russia and China offered diplomatic condemnation of US-Israeli attacks without escalation, and even the West exhibited significant internal divisions. India's foreign policy, characterized by strengthening ties with Israel while maintaining crucial economic links with Arab nations and proposing BRICS digital currency initiatives, reflects a complex "multialignment" rather than a definitive shift towards the West. Primarily an economic forum, BRICS+ seeks greater voice in global institutions and aims to foster a "non-Western" pluriversal world. As 2026 Chair, India faces the critical task of providing a strong, peace- and development-focused vision to consolidate the group's diverse interests, countering self-serving Western decline narratives.

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Theaterisation in play: Air Headquarters to control strategic assets

The Print  |  Snehesh Alex Philip

India's military theaterisation plan, designed to enhance integrated command structures, has achieved a significant breakthrough with a consensus on the division of air assets. Previously a major point of contention, the agreement stipulates that the Air Headquarters will retain central command over all strategic air assets, encompassing refuellers, transport aircraft, Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) systems, future electronic intelligence aircraft, and space-based assets. Conversely, fighter aircraft will be allocated to their respective theatre commands. The overarching strategy includes establishing three theatre commands: one focused on China, to be led by an Army officer and based in Lucknow; another addressing Pakistan, headed by an Air Force officer and located in Jaipur; and a dedicated maritime theatre. This structural reform aims to streamline operations and improve synergy across the services, with ongoing efforts to finalize the foundational modalities.

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Three Million Children

brief

Baluchistan, a province in Pakistan, faces a severe educational crisis with its Education Minister, Raheela Hameed Khan Durrani, disclosing that three million children are not attending school. This revelation, made at a government event in May 2026, highlights a significant governance failure and a critical deficit in human capital development within the region. The lack of accurate data on out-of-school children underscores systemic weaknesses in provincial administration and resource allocation. The arrival of a civic-tech organization, reportedly with undisclosed foreign funding, to map this educational gap introduces a complex dynamic. While potentially offering data-driven solutions, the foreign funding aspect could raise sovereignty concerns or questions about external influence in a strategically sensitive province. This situation poses long-term challenges for Pakistan's stability, economic growth, and social cohesion, potentially exacerbating existing grievances and hindering efforts to counter extremism through education. The inability to account for such a large segment of the youth population represents a profound strategic vulnerability.

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A Year After Operation Sindoor, Early Narratives Collapse Under Evidence

Spencerguard  |  John Spencer

One year after Operation Sindoor, the 2025 India-Pakistan air campaign, initial narratives of Pakistani success and significant Indian aircraft losses have been debunked by operational evidence. A report released by the Centre d’Histoire et de Prospective Militaires in Switzerland reveals that while India sustained early tactical losses, the Indian Air Force rapidly achieved air superiority by May 10. This was accomplished through a deliberate suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses campaign, targeting Pakistani radar and SAM sites on May 8-9, and leveraging advanced systems like the S-400 to expand engagement envelopes. The decisive phase involved coordinated long-range precision strikes using BrahMos, SCALP-EG, and Rampage missiles against key Pakistani airbases and command centers across the country's operational depth, confirmed by satellite imagery and Pakistani official acknowledgments. Pakistan's subsequent retaliatory drone and missile attacks failed against India’s integrated air defense network. The campaign underscored that modern air warfare is a contest of integrated systems, where India's advantages in scale and depth ultimately outmatched Pakistan's capabilities, forcing a ceasefire.

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Taiwan After the Trump-Xi Summit: From Strategic Frontline to Strategic Balancing Point

E-International Relations  |  Jinghao Zhou

Taiwan faces an escalating strategic dilemma, transitioning from a passive frontline in U.S.-China rivalry to a potential "strategic balancing point" following the Trump-Xi summit. Beijing views unification as critical for national rejuvenation, geopolitical expansion beyond the First Island Chain, and securing semiconductor dominance, with Xi Jinping having emphasized increased urgency and the PLA conducting coercive drills. The United States, conversely, sees preventing unification as essential for maintaining its Indo-Pacific leadership and global technological supremacy. Structural pressures, including China's growing military capabilities, its desire to break U.S. strategic encirclement, and the irreversible divergence in cross-strait identities, heighten the risk of military confrontation. Both sides face significant miscalculation traps: China's leadership may suffer from distorted information leading to overconfidence, while U.S. strategic ambiguity and potential military-industrial capacity shortages could undermine its deterrence credibility. Taiwan itself risks a "survival trap," oscillating between a "Hong Kong scenario" of political concessions or a "Ukraine scenario" of direct conflict.

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Trump Comes to Beijing With a Blockade and a Boeing Order

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  The Ren Way

A future visit by former President Trump to Beijing is anticipated to involve a strategic blend of economic coercion, potentially through a 'blockade,' and transactional diplomacy, exemplified by a significant 'Boeing order.' This approach contrasts with previous presidential engagements, where American leaders, despite seeking decisive advantages, often concluded with substantial economic agreements, such as the $83.7 billion memorandum of understanding mentioned in the article. The proposed 'blockade' suggests a willingness to employ more aggressive, possibly military-backed, economic pressure to achieve specific concessions from China. Simultaneously, the 'Boeing order' indicates a transactional strategy where large commercial deals serve as both incentives and bargaining chips. This dual-pronged strategy could redefine US-China relations, escalating geopolitical tensions while pursuing specific economic and strategic objectives through a mix of pressure and inducement.

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Trump in China: A Case Study Of US Decline

Phillips’s Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien

Donald Trump's recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026, particularly his silence on the Taiwan issue, signals a concerning shift in U.S. diplomatic posture and perceived strategic decline. In contrast to President Joe Biden's firm public stance against Chinese military force towards Taiwan in 2022, Trump's refusal to address the topic when pressed by the media, despite Xi's explicit warnings of potential conflict, suggests a diminished U.S. commitment to key democratic allies. This perceived lack of resolve, interpreted as the U.S. acting as a supplicant needing Chinese assistance, raises significant questions about Washington's ability and willingness to protect partners like Taiwan. The incident underscores a potential weakening of U.S. deterrence and influence in the Indo-Pacific, with implications for regional stability and the broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Taiwan's media has already reported on Trump's silence ominously, highlighting the immediate impact on allied perceptions.

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The Iran Conflict Illuminates Taiwan’s Unique Energy Security Challenge

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Yu-Hsuan Yeh, Bonny Lin, Jane Nakano

The war in the Middle East and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significantly heightened energy security concerns across Asia, particularly for Taiwan, which faces a unique and precarious reliance on imported energy. Taiwan's extreme dependence on seaborne energy imports, with approximately 85 percent of East Asia's crude oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz, renders it highly vulnerable to disruptions in global shipping lanes. The ongoing Iran conflict, by demonstrating the potential for critical chokepoints to be compromised, underscores Taiwan's inherent strategic fragility. This situation compels Taipei to re-evaluate its energy diversification strategies, emergency stockpiles, and resilience against potential blockades, especially given the persistent threat of a Chinese invasion or naval interdiction. The strategic lessons from the Middle East are directly applicable to Taiwan's own geopolitical context, where a similar disruption could be engineered by Beijing. This necessitates robust international cooperation and domestic policy adjustments to mitigate catastrophic economic and societal impacts from energy supply interruptions, reinforcing the urgency for Taiwan to bolster its strategic reserves and alternative supply routes.

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America’s Negotiating Debt

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  The Ren Way

The potential return of Donald Trump to Beijing, as discussed in the article, underscores the inherent limitations of coercive power in U.S.-China strategic negotiations. The piece suggests that the United States has accumulated a "negotiating debt" by consistently prioritizing aggressive pressure tactics, which China has effectively learned to counter or exploit. This approach, exemplified by past Trump administration policies, risks not only failing to achieve desired concessions but also alienating key allies and solidifying Beijing's resolve. Strategically, the article implies that a more patient, nuanced, and potentially multilateral engagement strategy is imperative to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape with China, moving beyond a zero-sum competition. The Chinese proverb "欲速则不达" (The faster you chase, the further the destination recedes) serves as a central metaphor, advocating for a recalibration of U.S. foreign policy tools to foster more sustainable and effective long-term strategic objectives rather than relying on short-term, high-pressure tactics.

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Chinese Hegemony in Asia Might Be Happening

Foreign Policy | Stephen M. Walt

Former President Trump's policies and actions are increasingly perceived as inadvertently facilitating the emergence of Chinese hegemony across Asia, marking a significant strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific. This analysis suggests that a potential departure from traditional U.S. engagement or a weakening of alliances under a Trump administration could create a power vacuum, diminishing American influence and allowing Beijing to expand its economic, political, and military footprint unchallenged. The article likely examines how specific decisions, such as trade disputes, questioning of alliance commitments, or a perceived U.S. retreat from multilateral institutions, have weakened regional counterbalances to China's growing power. Consequently, nations in the Indo-Pacific might be compelled to align more closely with Beijing, accepting its leadership in regional governance and economic frameworks. This development poses profound long-term challenges to the existing liberal international order and U.S. strategic interests, potentially ushering in a new era of Chinese dominance in a critical geopolitical theater, with implications for global power dynamics and regional stability.

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Don’t Ask China for Help With Hormuz

Real Clear World  |  Sarah Dimichino

The United States should avoid pressuring China for assistance in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and refrain from sanctioning Chinese oil refineries, particularly during an upcoming summit in Beijing. Despite a stalled war with Iran and a fragile ceasefire, China enters negotiations confidently, having made significant technological advancements and leveraged control over rare earths. US sanctions on Chinese "teapot" refineries have proven ineffective in curbing Iranian oil purchases, and unclear messaging regarding responsibility for the Strait of Hormuz projects weakness and confers legitimacy on China as a mediator. While reopening the strait is in everyone's interest, Washington's public demands risk inducing Beijing's reluctance. A more private approach to cooperation on the strait would allow both superpowers to maintain credibility and focus on longer-standing trade and defense issues, potentially yielding more strategic wins for the US.

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Trump and Xi’s spheres of ignorance

Newsweek  |  Newsweek Editors

The relationship between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is characterized by significant "spheres of ignorance" on both sides, hindering effective strategic engagement. Trump's transactional approach often misinterprets China's civilizational priorities, particularly regarding Taiwan, and underestimates American voters' preference for lower prices over confrontational trade policies. Similarly, Xi's understanding of the U.S. is potentially flawed by treating Trump as the sole representation of America and by an authoritarian information system that filters genuine Chinese public sentiment, which can be both nationalistic and pragmatic. This mutual lack of deep understanding is exacerbated by a thinning of "middle layers" of communication, evidenced by declining numbers of American students in China, reduced flights, and restricted foreign journalism. The article highlights that while a summit might yield superficial agreements, it cannot bridge these fundamental gaps in perception, making the risk of conflict a "known known" if diplomacy fails to acknowledge these constraints.

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Daily Memo: Bessent in East Asia, Iran’s Recovery

Geopolitical Futures  

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent initiated key diplomatic engagements in East Asia, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Seoul and Japanese officials in Tokyo. These discussions serve as crucial groundwork ahead of an anticipated visit by President Donald Trump to China, focusing primarily on bilateral trade and shaping the agenda for Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bessent's itinerary underscores the United States' strategic commitment to managing complex economic relationships and coordinating policy with vital regional allies, Japan and South Korea, before high-level interactions with Beijing. This pre-summit diplomacy aims to identify common interests, mitigate potential trade disputes, and establish a constructive framework for future U.S.-China economic and strategic dialogues, while simultaneously reinforcing alliances within the Indo-Pacific.

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The China Gambit: From Nixon to Trump

The New York Times  |  Edward Wong

President Richard M. Nixon's 1972 visit to Beijing initiated a strategic gamble, aiming to serve American interests by opening diplomatic ties with Communist China and downgrading relations with Taiwan. Subsequent U.S. presidential visits continued this approach, with Chinese leaders viewing summits as opportunities to defuse tensions and convey core interests. The underlying American hope was that economic integration through trade would eventually foster political change in Beijing. However, as China's power and confidence grew, the dynamics shifted, with many Chinese officials now perceiving the United States as a nation in decline. This evolution from Nixon's initial gambit to President Trump's era highlights a continuum of alternating periods in U.S.-China relations, marked by significant geopolitical and economic shifts, including China's entry into the World Trade Organization and its emergence as a global economic engine.

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China gains major edge on U.S. amid Iran war, intelligence report finds

The Washington Post  |  John Hudson

A confidential U.S. intelligence assessment reveals that China is strategically leveraging the ongoing war in Iran to significantly enhance its global standing and competitive advantage over the United States across multiple domains. This critical report, circulating as President Donald Trump embarks on a highly anticipated trip to Beijing, details how Beijing is making substantial gains across military, economic, and diplomatic sectors. The protracted conflict in the Middle East has demonstrably diverted U.S. attention, resources, and strategic focus, thereby creating a permissive environment for China to expand its influence and capabilities globally. This opportunistic strategic shift by China poses substantial geopolitical consequences, potentially altering the global balance of power and challenging U.S. primacy in key regions. The intelligence findings underscore the urgent need for a comprehensive and agile U.S. strategy to counter China's advancements and mitigate the long-term impacts of its growing influence, especially while the U.S. remains deeply engaged in the Iran conflict.

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Iraq’s New Prime Minister Faces Immediate Test Over Iran and the U.S.

Oilprice.com  |  James Durso

Iraq's newly nominated Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, faces immediate and complex strategic challenges balancing U.S. and Iranian influence. Washington supports al-Zaidi as a compromise candidate, aiming to curb Iran-linked militias, reduce Iraq's heavy dependence on Iranian natural gas imports, and expand U.S. economic involvement. Key issues include the U.S. push to sanction and integrate militias like the PMF into unified Iraqi command, and Iraq's vulnerability due to its reliance on Iranian gas, which has seen volatile supply disruptions, including after an Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars field. Iraq plans to achieve zero routine gas flaring by 2028 to reduce this dependence. Al-Zaidi must also navigate increased U.S. investment in Iraq's oil sector and infrastructure projects like the Development Road, while asserting Iraqi sovereignty amidst U.S. strategic cooperation and military presence, especially following regional conflicts. The formation of an inclusive government, free of hardline Iranian proxies, remains a critical U.S. condition.

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Gen. Caine’s Silence on Iran War Leaves Questions About Military Strategy

The New York Times  |  Greg Jaffe

General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is navigating a challenging political landscape as he leads the U.S. military through a divisive war with Iran. During extensive congressional testimony, Caine has faced repeated questions regarding the U.S. military's failure to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its broader strategy to reopen it and end the conflict. While Caine has defined the military's mission narrowly, focusing on targeting Iran’s ballistic missile systems, destroying its Navy, and protecting U.S. forces and allies, he has deliberately avoided discussing the broader strategic implications or whether the Pentagon anticipated the strait's closure. This approach highlights his tightrope walk between his obligation to remain apolitical and the President's demand for absolute loyalty, leaving lawmakers with significant unanswered questions about the overall U.S. military strategy and its effectiveness in the region.

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Who Owns the Strait?

The New York Times  |  Sam Sifton

Iran's assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz has plunged global oil markets into crisis, trapping thousands of ships in the Persian Gulf and inducing a global economic downturn. President Trump's negotiations with Tehran are on "life support" as Iran demands to maintain its chokehold on the vital waterway, through which a fifth of the world's oil flowed before the current conflict. This recurring strategic challenge, previously seen in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, involves Iranian attacks on vessels and a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. The dispute is fundamentally legal, centered on the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which permits territorial waters but mandates free navigation. Iran's proposal to charge a toll would violate customary international law, as highlighted by legal scholars like James Kraska. The crisis significantly impacts Trump's summit with China's President Xi Jinping, as the U.S. seeks Chinese pressure on Iran to reopen the strait, underscoring the geopolitical and economic ramifications of maritime chokepoint control.

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Prince Turki al-Faisal's Op-Ed

FrameTheGlobeNews

Prince Turki al-Faisal, former head of Saudi intelligence, has reportedly documented a de-escalation channel that entirely bypassed the United States, a revelation met with notable silence from Washington. This strategic silence is interpreted as a significant indicator of shifting regional dynamics and potentially diminished U.S. influence in critical Middle Eastern security matters. The article highlights a direct reference within al-Faisal's op-ed to "the US-Israeli war on Iran," a phrasing that deviates sharply from Washington's preferred diplomatic language and suggests a more direct and aggressive perception of the conflict. This development underscores a potential re-alignment of regional powers and a growing willingness by key actors to pursue independent diplomatic and security pathways, challenging established alliances and U.S. mediation roles. The lack of an official U.S. response to such a critical disclosure further amplifies concerns about the efficacy of current U.S. foreign policy in the region and the future of its strategic partnerships.

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Trump, Putin, and Genghis Khan: A Conversation With Fiona Hill

Foreign Affairs  |  Dan Kurtz-Phelan, Fiona Hill

Fiona Hill, a seasoned observer of global leaders, critically analyzes Donald Trump's second-term foreign policy, highlighting his unexpected embrace of an "imperial mindset" and a significant departure from his initial reluctance towards military interventions. She notes his increasingly uninhibited actions, such as pushing for the acquisition of Greenland, making belligerent statements towards Canada, and initiating a war against Iran in the Gulf, which she describes as exceeding even her own pessimistic anticipations. Hill identifies Trump's growing megalomania, narcissism, and "Messiah complex," asserting that he perceives himself as an infallible, world-historic figure operating without conventional constraints, even from market forces or traditional allies. This unconstrained approach, she warns, creates a highly turbulent global environment where the boundaries of American power and international norms are continually challenged by leaders like Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping. Hill's analysis underscores a profound concern for the future of global stability given Trump's perceived lack of limitations on his actions.

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Assessing Russian Network Warfare Through the Lens of the Ukraine Conflict

Small Wars Journal | Nysret Buzhala

Russia's integrated model of network-centric warfare, encompassing Computer Network Operations (CNO), AI-enabled Information Operations (IO), Electronic Warfare (EW), and space-based capabilities, has been significantly tested in the Ukraine conflict, revealing critical gaps between strategic design and operational execution. Despite initial technical successes, such as the Viasat attack, Moscow underestimated the resilience of commercial entities like SpaceX’s Starlink and Ukraine's adaptive defense, which leveraged Western support to outpace Russian electronic and information warfare cycles. Russian cyber operations, while strong initially, faltered in sustained execution against real-time countermeasures. Its AI-enabled IO, rooted in Soviet-era deception, effectively uses large language models to generate high-volume disinformation and amplify existing societal divisions. Similarly, Russia's EW systems achieved early tactical effects but were rapidly mitigated by Ukrainian adaptations. The article concludes that Russia’s doctrinal rigidity and poor tactical integration have been outmatched by Ukraine’s agile, commercially augmented architecture, recommending Western defense prioritize machine-speed counter-disinformation, “hunt-forward” cyber operations, and formal protections for commercial space assets.

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Marine Corps University Press

Journal of Advanced Military Studies, Spring 2026, v. 17, no. 1

Forging the Will to Fight: Lessons from the Winter War, 1939–1940

Geoeconomic Analysis of Price of Persistence in the Fight against Terrorism: Financial Flows and the Psychology of Warfare

The Will to Fight: The Most Overused Phrase and Misunderstood Aspect of Warfare

Preventing an Unacknowledged Assumption: Inexhaustible American Will to Fight

Beyond Willingness to Fight: The Individual’s Defense Relationship Theory as a Comprehensive Framework for Citizen Commitment to National Defense and Security—A Review Article

More than Morale: Identity Fusion and the Psychology of the Will to Fight

National Will to Fight in Allied Democracies: A Comparative Enabling-Conditions Assessment

Beyond Break-Falls: MCMAP and the Will to Fight

Becoming, Not Joining: Belongingness as the Core Driver of Will to Fight

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Mind the Gap: Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s Middle East Gamble

Small Wars Journal | Tahir Azad

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent Gulf tour, encompassing Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan, strategically offers Ukraine's battle-hardened expertise in countering Iranian-origin drones. Denied sufficient Western air defense, Ukraine innovated low-cost, mass-producible "Shahed Killers" and an integrated Sky Fortress sensor network, achieving an 87% interception rate against Russian drones in February 2026. Kyiv seeks ballistic missile support and financial aid from Gulf states in exchange for this technology, aiming to secure alternative resources amid uncertain Western support and position Ukraine as an active security contributor. Zelenskyy's core argument frames Russia and Iran as a unified threat architecture, with Moscow allegedly sharing intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities with Tehran, directly linking Ukraine's struggle to Gulf security anxieties, especially given European strategic paralysis regarding the US military operation against Iran.

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