Don’t Repeat Afghanistan in Iran

RealClearDefense  |  Stephen D. Cook

The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021, perceived as a self-inflicted wound and a signal of irresolution, preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This perceived American retreat also emboldened Iran, which deepened ties with Hamas, contributing to the October 7th attack on Israel. Subsequently, Israel conducted campaigns against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon (2024), followed by direct strikes on Iranian targets.

Information as the New High Ground: The Cognitive Fight in the Indo-Pacific

Small Wars Journal | Lynnette Hui Xian Ng, by Ben Blane

Conflict today is increasingly shaped by the cognitive terrain, where information operations via social media are foundational for effective regional deterrence. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) employs an “all-domain dominance” strategy, using information campaigns against Japan that mirror Russia's pre-2022 invasion tactics in the Baltic States. China weaponizes history and territorial disputes, such as

China’s One-Sided Theory of Peace

The National Interest  |  Larry M. Wortzel

Chinese President Xi Jinping communicated to President Donald Trump in Beijing that the United States must change its behavior to ensure US-China relations stability and avoid the “Thucydides Trap.” Xi asserted that the US needs to accommodate China's growing technical, economic, and military power, rather than China altering its own policies.

Is China’s Confidence Justified?

Project Syndicate  |  Jayati Ghosh

China's political and intellectual elites increasingly view the nation's economic transformation as validation of state-led development's superiority over liberal capitalism. However, deep-seated structural issues, specifically economic overcapacity and persistent inequality, suggest that this prevailing triumphalism may be premature. During US President Donald Trump's visit to China, the official narratives surrounding his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping exhibited immediate and notable discrepancies, highlighting differing interpretations of the discussions.

The Middle Power Delusion: Not Choosing Is Not an Option

Foreign Affairs | Michael Beckley

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos that middle powers must stop negotiating alone, as they are becoming more exposed, not more powerful. The conditions that allowed middle powers to flourish, such as U.S. hegemony, an expanding global economy, and the ability to trade with rival powers without choosing, are eroding.

Decoding China’s 15th Five-Year Plan

Foreign Policy Research Institute | Kyle Marcrum

China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) reflects a significantly more pessimistic assessment of the global environment, perceiving it as increasingly uncertain and unstable, yet simultaneously presenting opportunities for Beijing. Analysis of the March 2026 Outline, compared to the October 2025 Recommendations, reveals three critical shifts in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thinking: a soured international outlook, a

The G-2 Reality: America and China Cannot Dominate or Exclude Each Other

Foreign Affairs | Zheng Wang

President Donald Trump’s mid-May visit to China signaled Washington and Beijing's acceptance of a "G-2 reality," where neither can dominate nor exclude the other despite years of trade wars, technology controls, and military competition. This G-2 world mandates competitive coexistence, enabling the United States and China to restrict and disrupt each other without achieving outright triumph or sustained conflict.

After the Iran Strikes, the West Must Confront the Third Option

Real Clear Defense  |  Wesley Martin

The U.S. military has dealt irreparable damage to Iran’s theocratic dictatorship since late February, yet the ultimate solution to the Iran conflict must involve the removal of the mullahs’ regime without necessarily deploying American troops. An organized opposition movement, centered on the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), offers a “third option” for democratic change.

Trump’s Nuclear Review

Real Clear Defense  |  Madelyn Creedon, Eric S. Edelman, Franklin C. Miller, Vipin Narang, Keith B. Payne

The Trump Pentagon is conducting a "mini review" of U.S. nuclear strategy, which must define deterrence and assurance for an increasingly complex nuclear age. This review should avoid "mirror-imaging," recognizing that aggressive, autocratic opponents like Russia and China prioritize regime survival, military capabilities, and their defense industrial base.

Four Myths About MAGA

Real Clear Defense  |  Christopher J. Little

The 2025 National Security Strategy, 2026 National Defense Strategy, and 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy define "MAGA" as a codified doctrine, refuting common mischaracterizations. These documents demonstrate that MAGA is not isolationist, citing eight mediated regional conflicts, including between Pakistan and India, Israel and Iran, and ending the Gaza war, alongside operations like Midnight Hammer against Iran's nuclear program and Absolute Resolve against Nicolás Maduro.

Explainer: What's involved in talks to end the Iran war?

RealClearWorld

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Tuesday that negotiating a deal with Iran could "take a few days," dampening hopes for an imminent end to the conflict after U.S. defensive strikes in southern Iran. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed progress on a potential 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU), but not an immediate deal.

Surge in Nuclear Brinksmanship Cannot Regain Russia’s Position of Strength

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Pavel K. Baev

Russia's accumulating setbacks in economic, military, and foreign policies are shifting the war's trajectory towards potential defeat, prompting President Vladimir Putin to intensify nuclear brinkmanship as his primary instrument for coercion. Recent Russian nuclear demonstrations include the May 12 test launch of the Sarmat (RS-28) intercontinental missile, tactical nuclear exercises in Belarus aimed at Baltic states, and a strategic forces exercise involving Yars and Sineva missiles.

This is how to defeat Vladimir Putin

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Timothy Garton Ash

Vladimir Putin's external ambitions, aiming to subjugate Ukraine, restore the Russian empire, undermine NATO and the EU, and re-establish a Russian sphere of influence, necessitate a comprehensive strategy from democracies. This strategy involves maintaining unwavering support for Ukraine, ensuring it becomes a prosperous, secure, and democratic EU member state, even after a potential ceasefire.

Concerned About Army’s Loyalty, Putin Boosts Role of Political Commissars

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Paul Goble

Russian President Vladimir Putin has significantly expanded the number and role of political commissars, known as _politruks_, within the military since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This revival of a Soviet-era practice, which began in 2018, indicates Putin's growing concern about the loyalty of his military commanders and troops, aiming to prevent the army from becoming a political threat.

The Wars in Ukraine and Iran Are More Alike Than You May Think

The New York Times  |  Lara Jakes

The wars in Ukraine and Iran, despite initial differences in combat style—trench warfare versus air and sea attacks—exhibit striking similarities, particularly in the inability of more powerful militaries, Russia and the United States/Israel, to achieve quick victories against their adversaries. President Vladimir V. Putin expected a swift win in his “special military operation” in Ukraine,

More Iran war? There goes the neighborhood, and global economy.

Responsible Statecraft  |  Karthik Sankaran

The Iran war has caused a significant global economic impact, marked by a spike in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from $60 to $91 per barrel. Global oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf experienced a cumulative shortfall of roughly one billion barrels, absorbed by reduced demand, increased non-Gulf production, and a 250 million barrel drop in global oil inventories, which the IEA warns is unsustainable.

How Saudi Arabia's spending spree reached the end of the line

BBC  |  Sebastian Usher

Saudi Arabia's ambitious Vision 2030, initiated a decade ago by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) with nearly $1 trillion from its sovereign wealth fund (PIF), aimed to diversify the economy away from oil through monumental projects. Four years from its target, a significant retrenchment is evident, driven by financial imperatives including pre-war oil price drops and insufficient foreign investment.

Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2026

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Alexander Palmer, Daniel Byman, Alexander Margolis, Riley McCabe, and Erin Oppel

The United States faces an increasingly complex and unpredictable terrorism landscape, a significant shift from the post-9/11 era or the peak of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate. This evolving environment is notably characterized by the absence of a single, clear paramount threat, indicating a more diffuse and multifaceted challenge to national security.

How AI Warfare Is Redefining Human Oversight on the Battlefield

The National Interest  |  Jakub Kubś

In the first 24 hours of a US operation against Iran this winter, an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven targeting system, Epic Fury, identified approximately a thousand objects for potential strikes in seconds, a task impossible for a human analyst in a day. Since late February, the United States has launched over 11,000 strikes against Iran, many cued by Palantir’s Maven Smart System.

Collaboration without over-reliance: the role of industry in making military AI “lawful by design”

ICRC Blogs  |  Laura Bruun, Netta Goussac

The policy debate on artificial intelligence (AI) in the military domain increasingly emphasizes integrating international humanitarian law (IHL) into military AI system design, aiming for "lawful by design" capabilities. However, Laura Bruun and Netta Goussac from SIPRI argue that this focus risks states over-relying on industry for IHL compliance.

All non-drone militaries are now obsolete

Asia Times  |  Noah Smith

The Ukraine war has decisively demonstrated that all non-drone militaries are now obsolete, with drones inflicting casualty rates as high as 5 to 1 on the Russian army, causing an estimated 96% of casualties. Ukraine escalated its FPV drone usage from thousands to approximately 60,000 daily, proving drones are the supreme weapon due to their

Smaller, easier, smarter: what special operators want from AI

Defense One  |  Patrick Tucker

United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) are articulating clear requirements for Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, prioritizing solutions that are 'smaller, easier, and smarter' for integration into their demanding operational environments. The core demand centers on AI agents that are compact enough to fit within a soldier's pack, underscoring a critical need for miniaturized, low-power, and edge-processing capabilities.

VIEWPOINT: Maximizing Airpower: Flexibility in Weapons and Platforms

National Defense Magazine  |  Megan Hainline

The Joint Force is not maximizing airpower combat options due to insufficient weapons interoperability, stemming from "systematic tribalism" and flawed incentive structures. Policymakers expect global precision strikes, yet the U.S. military's current approach hinders flexibility. The Pentagon's existing acquisition reforms, like portfolio executives and modular open system approaches, are insufficient.

Peraton IRIS™: AI-Powered Decision-Support Platform Redefining Operations in the Information Environment

Peraton

Peraton announced the commercial availability of Peraton IRIS™, an AI-enabled decision-support platform designed for analysts, mission planners, and commanders operating in the complex information environment. This platform, at Technology Readiness Level 9 and approved for CUI use at IL5, with IL6 approval by July 2026, has been operational at U.S.

This Is How the Iran War Ends

The Free Press  |  Michael Doran

President Donald Trump has announced that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is "largely negotiated," facing immediate criticism from both Republican and Democratic factions. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican ally, expressed concern that such a deal could be perceived as an "ignominious retreat," making Iran a dominant force and creating a "nightmare for Israel."

India, China, and Claims over Tawang: Views From a Field Visit to Arunachal Pradesh

The Diplomat  |  Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

India is actively transforming Arunachal Pradesh, a geopolitically sensitive frontier, into an integral part of the Indian nation to counter China's irredentist claims over the territory, particularly Tawang. New Delhi's strategy aims to solidify its sovereignty and presence in the region, which Beijing considers "South Tibet." This initiative involves significant efforts to integrate the border

Colour Revolutions: How the US Deep State is Reshaping South Asia to Contain China and Isolate India

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The United States has systematically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of South Asia through engineered political upheavals in sovereign nations like Bangladesh and Nepal, employing coordinated tactics such as youth mobilization, digital agitation, foreign-funded NGOs, and anti-corruption narratives. In Bangladesh, the August 2024 ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, framed as a student uprising, installed Muhammad Yunus, advancing US access to strategic Bay of Bengal assets and consolidating Islamist forces.

Pakistan's Hajj Operators Are Robbing Pilgrims. The Ministry Calls It Under One Percent.

Brief.pk

The Pakistan Hajj Mission, operating in Makkah, recently recovered 5.5 million rupees from private tour operators, who were found to have overcharged pilgrims during their Hajj pilgrimage. This direct intervention resulted in formal notices being issued to thirty-five distinct companies implicated in these financial malpractices. The article explicitly states that Pakistan's Hajj operators are "robbing" pilgrims through these overcharging schemes.

Bangladesh: Terrorist Nexus In Rohingya Camps – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Shivangi Sharma

Bangladesh's Rohingya refugee camps are experiencing escalating violence and fragmentation among armed groups, including ARA/Nabi Hossain Bahini, ARSA, ARO, Saddam Bahini, and Zakir Bahini, competing for territorial dominance and control over camp governance. In May 2026 alone, multiple killings occurred, such as Hasan Ahmed, Mohammad Kamal Prakash Noor, and ARO 'commander' Kefayet Ullah Halim.

Why Pakistan's biggest military deployment in Gulf in years is a geopolitical alarm

India Today  |  Pradip R. Sagar

Pakistan's reported deployment of a large military contingent, including F-16 and JF-17 Thunder aircraft and elements of the 25 Mechanized Division, in Saudi Arabia has raised concerns over Islamabad's strategic posture amidst West Asia tensions and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran. Regional observers view this as a significant commitment, with the F-16s likely bearing the heavier operational burden while JF-17s perform defensive roles due to China's engagement with Iran.

Mediation And The Geopolitical Positioning Of Belarus And Pakistan In The Multipolar Order – Analysis

Eurasia Review

The contemporary international order is undergoing a profound structural reconfiguration from unipolar dominance to a complex, networked multipolar system, where mediation diplomacy is increasingly vital for global governance. Its effectiveness stems from the ability to foster dialogue and build trust through perceived neutrality, institutional predictability, and sovereign autonomy, rather than military or economic superiority.

Did Pakistan Actually Open Its Transit Corridors to Iran?

FrameTheGlobeNews

Pakistan launched the Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridor last month at a ceremony in Karachi, where Director General of Transit Trade Customs Sanaullah Abro and Director Transit Muhammad Rashid flagged off the initiative. Islamabad had announced six transit routes, prompting shipping lines to reroute thousands of containers to Pakistani ports like Karachi and Gwadar.

The Iran Deal Nobody Agrees On

Frame the Globe News

Pakistan's military personnel were targeted on May 24 in Quetta, Balochistan, when a bomb detonated on a shuttle train, killing at least 24 people, including army servicemen, and wounding over 50. The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a US-designated foreign terrorist organization based in Afghanistan, claimed responsibility, consistent with its objective of Baloch independence and targeting Pakistani state integration projects in the resource-rich province carrying CPEC.

A ‘New Beginning’ for Xi’s Assimilationist Agenda

Jamestown | Arran Hope

China's _Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law_, passed by the National People’s Congress in March and effective July 1, establishes statutory obligations for Beijing's comprehensive assimilationist agenda. This law, building on over 20 provincial regulations, transforms ethnic unity work from "policy guidance" to "legal norms" and a "hard constraint," compelling officials to "forge a common Chinese national consciousness."

Iran Previews China’s Cyber Playbook

National Interest  |  Andrew Harding, Josiah Guajardo

Iran's "Operation Epic Fury" cyberattacks offer a critical preview for Taiwan regarding potential Chinese threats. China, possessing a highly capable cyber arsenal, considers cyberspace a "critical domain" and "the core center for winning wars," actively launching 2.63 million daily cyberattacks against Taiwanese critical infrastructure in 2025. Iranian-tied groups conducted 5,800 attacks against American and Israeli companies, manipulating internet-facing programmable logic controllers to cause operational disruptions and financial losses.