Thomas Graham
A lasting Russia-Ukraine peace requires private diplomacy, broader European security talks, active US leadership, and continued military aid to Ukraine, prioritizing stability over ideal outcomes or total justice.
Unsurprisingly, the talks between Kyiv and Moscow in Istanbul on June 2 failed to bring the Russia-Ukraine war closer to a ceasefire. Both sides stuck to their maximal demands, with little indication of flexibility, and Ukraine still wants a ceasefire as a prelude to peace negotiations.
Russia insists the root causes of the conflict have to be resolved before a ceasefire is put in place. Meanwhile, the fighting escalates with more intense Russian aerial bombardment of Ukraine and Ukrainian acts of sabotage deep inside Russia.
Nevertheless, the situation is far from hopeless.
To President Donald Trump’s credit, he has focused on the requirements for peace, even if he grossly underestimated the task’s difficulty. While the Ukrainians and Russians are separated by a chasm in their demands, there is a way forward to a ceasefire and an enduring settlement.
What Are the Requirements for a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire?
First, confidential negotiations, not public spectacles such as in Istanbul, must commence in earnest.
The sensitive compromises necessary to hammer out an agreement can only be reached in private. This does not mean there is no place for talks in the public glare. The Istanbul talks yielded valuable agreement on prisoner exchanges, but more importantly, they can cover quiet diplomacy by distracting media attention.
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