Joseph Trevithick
What looks to be a new Chinese road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) dubbed the DF-61, or at least a transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) for it, has emerged amid last-minute preparations for a massive military parade in Beijing. There have been reports for some time now that China has been developing next-generation ICBMs, including a successor to its road-mobile DF-41 ICBM, as part of a larger buildup of its nuclear deterrent arsenal.
Imagery showing 16-wheeled TELs loaded at least with canisters marked DF-61 (whether or not there is an actual missile inside is unknown) is now beginning to circulate online. It is currently early morning on September 3 in Beijing. Preparations for the imminent parade, which will mark the 80th anniversary of the country’s victory over Japan in World War II, have been going on for months now, and various new capabilities have already surfaced.
No hard details have yet to emerge about the DF-61, and it is unknown at this time whether or not it is said to be in service. A point of reference, the DF-41 was first shown to the public at another major parade in 2019, but its development is understood to have started before 2000, and it had reportedly begun entering operational service in 2017. The DF-41 is some 20 meters long, has an estimated range of between 12,000 and 15,000 kilometers, and can be loaded with up to 10 multiple independently-targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads, according to the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.
DF-41s, or at least their TELs, at a previous Chinese military parade. via Global Times
A story last year from The Washington Times said that references to a DF-41 successor, referred to at that time variously as the DF-45 and DF-51, have appeared on the Chinese web since at least 2020. That piece came after U.S. Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command, reportedly told members of Congress that China was developing a “new generation of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles” at a closed-door hearing.
“Sometimes called the DF-45 or DF-51, it is clearly intended to outperform the DF-41,” Rick Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center think tank, told The Washington Times at that time. “Such an ICBM would not be much larger than a DF-41 to preclude a road-mobile version.”
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