Kurniawan Arif Maspul
The strike on Doha in September 2025 was more than just a headline — it was a geopolitically seismic event that shattered a fragile structure of mediation and revealed a dangerous new approach in the Middle East. For twenty years, Qatar built a rare strategic asset: credibility as a mediator capable of engaging with everyone — Washington and Tehran, Israel and Hamas — and, importantly, getting results. Doha’s shuttle diplomacy and aid to Gaza (estimated at over US$1 billion since 2014) helped maintain humanitarian corridors, secured hostage releases, and created a channel for discreet, challenging diplomacy. The Israeli strike changed that approach overnight. It not only killed people and the fragile hope of a pause but also undermined the implicit deal that made Doha a safe space for adversaries to meet.
The immediate political impact was predictably corrosive. Qatar’s government, stunned and angered, stepped back from mediation; Gulf capitals rallied to Doha’s defense; European partners condemned the violation of sovereignty; and the already slim prospects for a Gaza ceasefire were further eroded. Analysts from major centers all reached the same blunt conclusion: striking a host capital destroys the back-channels negotiators rely upon and reduces the incentives for either side to trust mediated deals. The cost is not just diplomatic prestige; it is the loss of practical routes that save lives on the ground.
This episode also forced a painful reckoning about the limits of hedging in small-state diplomacy. Qatar’s “friend-of-all” posture was always a high-wire act. It bought leverage and relevance, but it also made Doha vulnerable. When the state that one side hates most feels empowered to strike across borders, the calculus for small mediators shifts from “how much influence can we build?” to “how safe is our soil, our people, our role?” Gulf leaders now face a binary choice: accept greater risk in the name of mediation, or recalibrate their policies and the guarantees that underpin them. Either path matters for regional stability.
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