Easy Victories, Hard Defeats: Fragile Adversaries and the Lessons of War and Society

Siamak Naficy

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For most of recorded history, China was the dominant civilization in East Asia. Then came the Meiji upstart: Japan rose, China stumbled, and the balance reversed—with profound consequences for the region and the world. Today, we are watching another reversal of the reversal, as China reasserts itself and seeks to constrain Japan’s strategic space. That raises an enduring question: why do these shifts happen, and what do they tell us about the interplay of war, society, and power?

The hillside was slick with blood. At 203-Meter Hill above Port Arthur (Lüshunkou) in December 1904, Japanese troops clawed their way up under Russian fire, charging again and again until the ground itself seemed made of corpses. When the crest finally fell, Japanese artillery could at last rain shells onto the harbor, sinking the Russian Pacific Fleet. The victory was decisive, but it cost over 11,000 Japanese dead (and almost 10,000 wounded). General Nogi, who lost both his sons in the war, later wrote that he had won a “mountain of corpses.”

That image captures both the brilliance and the fragility of Japan’s early rise. The victory at Port Arthur was hailed worldwide as proof of Asian modernity, yet Japan was already nearing exhaustion. Only deft diplomacy and U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt’s mediation prevented the war from sliding into defeat. Success was real—but it was contingent, narrow, and deeply dependent on timing, alliances, and restraint.

As an anthropologist, I am interested in what is particular and local but also in what is true across time and space. Japan’s rise and fall illustrate both. This particular story is about Meiji reforms, battlefield victories, and diplomatic finesse. The broader truth is about war and society: how institutions mobilize power, how restraint preserves success, and how hubris—fueled by victories over cooperative adversaries—can drive states into ruin.

Building a Modern Power

Japan’s rise began with the Meiji reforms (1869–1890). Faced with the humiliations of the treaty-port system, Japanese leaders recognized that survival required more than rifles and ships: it required Western-style institutions that could mobilize society and, crucially, both manufacture and manage modern technology.