John Mecklin
When I first started thinking about an issue of the Bulletin focused on the changes the second Trump administration has wrought on the international order, the first expert who came to mind as a table-setter for the discussion was Graham Allison. He’s long been recognized as a top analyst of international security policy, advising or serving in the US Defense Department, State Department, and CIA, and leading and teaching at the Harvard Kennedy School for more than 40 years. His widely acclaimed book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?, has helped shape thinking about the confrontation of the world’s two leading powers since its publication in 2017. And his understanding of when history can and cannot be useful in crafting policy for the present and future is, to my way of thinking, unparalleled.
He and I spoke in July, when the vicissitudes of the Trump administration’s approach to international trade and security seemed to be approaching a zenith of unpredictability.
John Mecklin: I’m going to start with a general question, and then we’ll go into specifics. It’s just my assumption, from looking from the outside, that most people would think Donald Trump in this term has actually changed the world order—how the major powers relate to one another—in some fairly significant ways. But how do you see it? I mean, that’s the popular view, but maybe you don’t agree.
Graham T. Allison: I would say mainly “yes,” but with a reservation. The question of the state of the international security order and the future of the international security order is one that was of great concern before Trump—and then Trump adds to the picture. But you need to kind of start with the big picture. To make this vivid, consider 80, 80, and 9. If you can identify the questions to which each of these numbers is the answer, you’ll have the big picture about the international security order during the whole of the lifetime of almost all Americans today.
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