Aparna Pande & Bill Drexel
On April 2, 2025, which the White House dubbed “Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump announced broad, sweeping tariffs on over 90 countries. While the president’s announcement caused anxiety in foreign capitals, officials in New Delhi remained relatively calm. United States–India relations had been improving for more than two and a half decades, and the US had become India’s largest trading partner. By most accounts, President Trump respected Prime Minister Narendra Modi—even going so far as to refer to his Indian counterpart as his “good friend.”
Furthermore, during an official visit in February 2025, President Trump and Prime Minister Modi announced a series of trade targets suggesting that a wider trade deal was imminent. The two leaders pledged to pursue $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030—more than double the current volume—and promised to deepen US arms sales to India, including by laying the groundwork for future acquisitions of F-35 fighter jets. Prime Minister Modi committed to increasing energy imports from the US and reducing tariffs on American goods. India, by most accounts, was eager to address the Trump administration’s concerns about trade imbalances, and the two sides set fall 2025 as a target for finalizing a bilateral trade agreement.
Meanwhile, due to strong messaging from the Trump team against production based in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Apple announced plans to shift all assembly of its US-bound iPhones to India. Prime Minister Modi also spoke with Elon Musk to discuss providing Tesla with access to Indian markets. Vice President JD Vance even visited India in late April 2025, and lauded the country’s “sense of infinite possibility.”
So, officials in New Delhi had many reasons to believe their country would emerge unscathed from President Trump’s Liberation Day.
Yet roadblocks in negotiations have tempered that initial optimism. Reporting has suggested that Indian negotiators offered their US counterparts a series of concessions over five rounds of technical talks. These included zero tariffs on industrial goods, a phased reduction of tariffs on US automobile and alcohol imports, and fixed energy and defense purchases meant to narrow the trade deficit between the two countries. In July, Indian officials left negotiations with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer with the impression that the two sides had agreed to a deal in principle.
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