Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA

Phillips's Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien

The United States military concluded a thirteen-day campaign of kinetic airstrikes against Iranian targets on 23 July 2026, amid growing concerns over depleted American precision munitions stockpiles. This operational pause has exposed critical vulnerabilities in regional deterrence, prompting immediate retaliatory strikes from Tehran and its regional proxy network against allied infrastructure.

Decades of underinvestment in industrial manufacturing capacity have left Western defense supply chains unable to sustain prolonged, high-intensity bombardment campaigns without compromising domestic readiness. Consequently, Iranian forces capitalized on this perceived hesitation by launching Arash one-way attack drones against Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain and Al-Azraq in Jordan. Simultaneously, Houthi militants targeted Saudi Aramco refineries in Jizan and Yanbu, while Iraqi militias struck eastern energy transit pipelines. Although Washington attempted to de-escalate by restricting its retaliatory strikes to proxy positions in Iraq, Tehran's persistent strikes on Jordan signal a calculated effort to lock the Trump administration into a costly war of attrition.

Brian Kennedy: Removing Iran's Uranium Would Require Thousands Of U.S. Troops

RealClearPolitics  |  Ian Schwartz

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump amid escalating tensions following a reported Ukrainian strike on an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. Tehran has warned that the attack, which killed a sailor, will not go unanswered, accusing Kyiv of acting at Israel's behest to draw Europe into a wider conflict.

This maritime confrontation highlights the deeply entrenched strategic alliance between Moscow and Tehran, which has facilitated joint military and nuclear development for nearly three decades. While Kyiv intends to present evidence of this cooperation, Washington faces the complex challenge of deterring Iranian retaliatory capabilities without triggering a broader regional war. Securing or extracting enriched uranium from facilities like Pickaxe Mountain remains highly problematic, as any ground operation would require thousands of American troops. Such a deployment would expose personnel to ballistic missile strikes, especially given potential shortages of U.S. air defence interceptors.

War In Iran: The Ignorance Of American Political Decision-Makers

Eurasia Review  |  Richard Rousseau

The United States military intervention against Iran beginning in February 2026 exposed critical vulnerabilities in American air defence doctrine as low-cost Iranian Shahed-136 drones depleted expensive Patriot and THAAD missile inventories. This asymmetric mismatch resulted in American casualties in Kuwait and Jordan, revealing a systemic failure to adapt to cheap, high-volume precision strike technologies.

Despite observing similar drone-dominated attrition dynamics in Ukraine since 2022, Pentagon planners failed to integrate inexpensive interceptors into their established force structures. Instead, Western military institutions and defence contractors like Rheinmetall maintained a preference for sophisticated, high-cost platforms over rapid, low-cost innovation. This intellectual inertia and doctrinal rigidity risk rendering billions of dollars in conventional military procurement obsolete on modern battlefields. Consequently, future Western defence efficacy depends on overhauling rigid doctrines to match the rapid, decentralized pace of contemporary technological adaptation, ensuring that strategic planning aligns with actual battlefield realities rather than outdated industrial-era paradigms.

The magnificent ten: A coalition of the willing to drive the EU’s next enlargement

European Council on Foreign Relations  |  Engjellushe Morina, Gabrielė Valodskaitė

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s July 2026 summit highlighted the urgent need for a concrete European Union enlargement strategy. A proposed 'Team Enlargement' coalition of ten key member states, led by Germany, aims to drive a new accession framework over the next 18 months to integrate Ukraine, Moldova, and the Western Balkans.

This initiative responds to a shifting geopolitical landscape where EU membership is increasingly viewed as an indispensable component of any future Ukrainian peace settlement. However, the bloc faces deep internal divisions over accession models, ranging from gradual integration to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s proposed associate membership. To overcome public skepticism and counter transactional US policies that undermine rule of law conditionality, the proposed ten-nation coalition must establish a strict merit-based framework. By implementing a coordinated four-step timetable through 2027, these member states seek to secure the EU's eastern flank while safeguarding internal cohesion and funding structures.

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Lead Moscow to Revive Idea of Buffer Zone in Border Areas

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Paul Goble

Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting critical infrastructure deep within the Russian Federation have prompted the Kremlin to revive proposals for a demilitarised buffer zone along the bilateral border. This proposed security corridor, publicly backed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, aims to shield western Russian oblasts and occupied Ukrainian territories from increasingly frequent aerial attacks.

Historically rooted in the Minsk Accords, the buffer-zone concept resurfaced following Ukraine's 2024 offensive in Kursk oblast but now faces severe operational and political hurdles. Domestic critics, including prominent commentators on outlets like RIA Novosti, argue that stopping modern UAVs with a projected 10,000-kilometre range would require an unfeasible 300-kilometre-deep depopulated zone. Consequently, implementing this policy would necessitate a general military mobilisation and the forced relocation of up to 300,000 residents to the Urals or Far East, sparking public backlash and eroding central political authority. While the Kremlin utilizes the proposal to manage domestic anxieties, the lack of concrete planning suggests the initiative may stall.

Europe Could Help Get Ukraine and Russia to the Negotiating Table

RAND Corporation | Samuel Charap

European governments must seize the diplomatic initiative to convene Russia and Ukraine in a continuous negotiation process, leveraging Moscow's economic vulnerabilities and battlefield stagnation to secure a ceasefire. This diplomatic push, endorsed by the United States, aims to prevent further military escalation and transform recent Western aid packages—including a ninety-billion-euro European Union loan—into tangible political leverage.

Although U.S. President Donald Trump previously initiated direct talks between the warring capitals, Washington's diplomatic bandwidth has since been severely constrained by the escalating U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. Consequently, the UK, France, and Germany have called for active participation to break the episodic nature of prior peace efforts and establish a resilient framework. While critics fear potential manipulation by Moscow, delaying structured negotiations risks prolonged attrition, unpredictable leadership changes in Kyiv, and an elevated danger of a direct NATO-Russia conflagration. Ultimately, combining active defense with persistent diplomacy remains the only viable path to resolve Europe's bloodiest conflict since the Second World War.

Zelensky to Axios: Ukraine needs missile interceptors to head off winter disaster

Axios | Barak Ravid

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has requested an emergency winter package of Patriot air defense interceptors from U.S. President Donald Trump to protect depleted energy infrastructure against escalating Russian ballistic missile strikes. Without these critical interceptors, Ukraine faces a severe humanitarian crisis as winter approaches, with power plants highly vulnerable to destruction.

The systemic depletion of Kyiv's air defense stockpiles stems from intense Russian bombardment coupled with diverted U.S. military supplies amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. To mitigate this dependency, the two leaders discussed licensing domestic Ukrainian production of Patriot interceptors, though local manufacturing would require one to five years to scale. Consequently, Kyiv is exploring modifying domestic ballistic missiles into cheaper, faster-to-produce interceptors. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have disrupted fuel supplies, even as Moscow reportedly prepares to mobilize 500,000 additional troops and integrate North Korean forces, complicating future peace negotiations mediated by Washington.

How the UK is helping Ukraine hit Russian targets

Defense One  |  Patrick Tucker

A new technology-sharing agreement between the United Kingdom and Ukraine will allow Kyiv to mass-produce a British-designed radar jammer called Stone Cloak to accelerate long-range drone strikes against Russian air defences. This intellectual property transfer marks a significant shift from donating physical weapons to sharing technical designs directly with Ukrainian manufacturers.

Previously, allied assistance relied on costly, slow-to-produce systems like the Storm Shadow cruise missile, which required complex multinational supply chains and years of development. To bypass these bureaucratic and financial bottlenecks, the bilateral Breakstop initiative aims to deliver rapidly designed, low-cost strike munitions within a compressed twenty-four-month timeline. By integrating frontline feedback in under ten days, Ukrainian developers are outpacing traditional Western procurement cycles. This rapid adaptation loop, combined with domestic innovations like the Flamingo long-range missile, is transforming the bilateral security partnership into a co-development model that enhances Ukraine's strategic strike autonomy while providing invaluable electronic warfare data to NATO allies.

How Ukraine's Strike on a Russia-Iran Supply Route Sparked an Information War

Unmasking Russia  |  Olga Lautman

Ukraine's weekend strike against Russian vessels in the Caspian Sea disrupted a critical military logistics corridor used to transport Iranian Shahed drones and missile components to Russian forces. This tactical operation immediately triggered a coordinated information campaign aimed at shifting the international narrative away from the illicit maritime supply chain.

Historically, Kyiv has warned the international community about the strategic significance of this Caspian Sea route, which has facilitated uninterrupted military transfers between Moscow and Tehran since the 2022 invasion. By summoning diplomats and leveraging state media, Tehran successfully redirected global attention, framing the defensive interdiction as a direct attack on Iran designed to drag Western powers into a broader conflict. Major Western outlets, including The New York Times and Reuters, adopted this escalatory framing, illustrating how effectively hostile information operations exploit media sensationalism to obscure bilateral military cooperation and complicate allied diplomatic responses.

How the UK is helping Ukraine hit Russian targets

Defense One  |  Patrick Tucker

The United Kingdom and other Western allies are transitioning their military assistance to Ukraine from direct missile donations to sharing technical weapon designs. This strategic shift in security assistance aims to help Ukrainian forces strike Russian targets more effectively by leveraging local production lines that now outpace the manufacturing capabilities of their foreign donors.

As the conflict demands rapid adaptation, the transfer of intellectual property and blueprints allows domestic defense facilities to bypass international supply chain bottlenecks. This evolving collaborative model reflects a deeper integration of allied technological expertise with Ukrainian industrial capacity, particularly in fields like electronic warfare and drone development. By localising the assembly of advanced systems, the partnership reduces reliance on dwindling Western stockpiles while accelerating the deployment of customized countermeasures on the battlefield. Ultimately, this transition from physical transfers to co-development establishes a highly resilient, self-sustaining defense ecosystem capable of sustaining long-term operations against Russian forces.

Safeguarding the Future in the AI Era: Q&A with Sella Nevo

RAND Corporation

The RAND Center on AI, Security, and Technology (CAST) is warning that autonomous artificial intelligence models capable of executing end-to-end cyber operations without human intervention could soon be diffused to global cybercriminals. This imminent shift threatens to eliminate existing technical bottlenecks for cybercrime, enabling unprecedented scales of automated network compromise.

To address these emerging threats, CAST director Sella Nevo is leading critical policy and technical initiatives to secure frontier AI model weights and establish robust physical and digital data center standards capable of resisting sophisticated nation-state attacks. Collaborative evaluations under the Canary initiative with METR reveal that advanced models are also approaching the capability to autonomously synthesize pathogens. Consequently, the center is prioritizing the integration of agent-based testing and open-source model evaluations to help international governments and private industry partners secure critical digital and biological systems before offensive capabilities permanently outpace defensive safeguards.

Digital and technology policy and national sovereignty

House of Lords Library | James Tobin

The United Kingdom is facing critical challenges to its national sovereignty as global digital infrastructure becomes increasingly concentrated under the control of a small number of American and Chinese technology conglomerates. This dependency exposes British public sector data and critical IT systems to extraterritorial legal jurisdictions and potential service disruptions during geopolitical disputes.

Historically, the physical, code, and data layers of the digital economy have evolved without centralized national oversight, leaving European states reliant on foreign cloud providers like Microsoft and Amazon Web Services. Recent diplomatic friction over the Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data (CLOUD) Act 2018 and the implementation of digital services taxes have intensified these vulnerabilities. While some European nations advocate for strict data localization, the British government has avoided an explicit digital sovereignty strategy, opting instead to build domestic artificial intelligence capabilities while maintaining international collaborations to secure its technological future.

Red Kraken: The Coming Age of Agentic Cyber Strategy

Center for Strategic and International Studies  |  Benjamin Jensen, Emily Harding

A custom artificial intelligence agent representing China, named Red Kraken, successfully disrupted West Coast ports and military logistics networks during a simulated 2027 Taiwan crisis conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. This exercise demonstrated how adaptive cyber adversaries can exploit critical transportation infrastructure to delay United States military mobilization and create domestic political pressure.

The simulation highlighted a shift in Beijing's doctrine from direct physical sabotage to corrupting the underlying data and workflows of AI-enabled logistics software. By targeting undefended commercial services, the agent mimicked real-world operations of state-sponsored groups like Volt Typhoon and Silk Typhoon to manipulate decision-making information. To counter this evolving threat, the authors recommend that Congress pass the PILLAR Act and the Guaranteeing Universal Access to Cybersecurity Act to strengthen local defenses. Additionally, the executive branch must map the commercial software supporting military mobilization and utilize agentic gaming to anticipate future adaptive adversary campaigns.

Entangled Frontiers: Quantum-AI Convergence in Defence and International Security

UNIDIR  |  Wenting He

The convergence of quantum technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to reshape future military competition by unlocking symbiotic capabilities that far exceed the individual potential of either technology. This technological integration threatens to exacerbate existing security risks, introducing heightened unpredictability, opaque decision-making, and severe challenges to legal compliance and accountability on the battlefield.

To address these emerging dynamics, the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) has initiated cross-disciplinary monitoring to track conceptual and early-stage defence use cases. While practical military applications remain in their infancy, the rapid pace of development in both fields demands proactive policy frameworks. Ultimately, the dual-use nature of these systems complicates international efforts to establish clear boundaries for autonomous warfare, creating a critical need for sustained technical and legal oversight to prevent destabilising escalation in future conflicts and ensure strict compliance with international humanitarian law.

From Arrowheads to Algorithms

Real Clear Defense  |  Jon Deacon Panamaroff, Haven Harris

Native American federal contractors are increasingly securing critical roles within the United States defense industrial base, delivering advanced cybersecurity, logistics, and mission support to the Department of War. These tribal enterprises provide highly specialized, niche capabilities that directly enhance the operational readiness and resilience of elite deployed forces.

For instance, subsidiaries of the Bering Straits Native Corporation have provided crucial training support for Navy Basic Underwater Demolition/SEAL (BUD/S) programs since 2011, while the Mashantucket Pequot Tribal Nation’s Command Holdings assists U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) with large-scale exercises like Emerald Warrior and Jaded Thunder. Supported by the Small Business Administration’s 8(a) Business Development Program, these entities help prevent industrial consolidation, which often stifles agility and innovation. This enduring contribution represents a modern evolution of a 250-year history of Native American military service, transitioning from historical battlefield scouts and Code Talkers to contemporary software engineers and defense contractors.

How a 180-Foot Drone Ship Could Change Hypersonic Warfare at Sea

SOFREP  |  Guy D. McCardle

Saronic Technologies and Castelion plan to conduct a maritime demonstration in 2027 integrating the Blackbeard hypersonic missile with the Marauder autonomous surface vessel. This integration aims to establish a low-cost, crewless strike capability that can deploy lethal payloads without exposing crewed warships to enemy targeting. The initiative leverages a 180-foot robot ship with a 150-metric-ton payload capacity to act as a mobile magazine, shifting launch coordinates across vast ocean expanses.

While the platform offers significant range and payload flexibility, engineers must overcome severe technical hurdles, including managing rocket exhaust, deck motion, and maintaining secure communications under active electronic warfare. If successful, this distributed lethality concept could allow the US Navy to rapidly scale its hypersonic strike capacity. However, the system remains vulnerable to cheap adversary drones, signal jamming, and network disruption, meaning its ultimate operational utility depends on resilient, human-in-the-loop targeting networks.

Why Japan Is Now the Most Important US Ally in Asia

National Interest  |  Jagannath Panda

The United States Department of Defense's decision on June 16, 2026, to rename US Indo-Pacific Command to US Pacific Command signals a major strategic pivot that demotes India as Washington's premier regional partner. This command restructuring coincides with India's refusal to sign a joint statement reaffirming the 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling against China.

As bilateral tensions between Washington and New Delhi mount, Japan has emerged as the primary anchor for American containment efforts against Chinese maritime expansion. Tokyo is actively backing the Trump administration's "Peace through Strength" doctrine, supported by a record-high defense budget exceeding $58 billion and expedited revisions to its national security documents. With Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi securing public support for a stronger deterrence posture, the archipelago's critical geography will remain central to securing commercial access in a Pacific region that drives 60 percent of global economic growth.

America’s Changing Policy on Afghanistan

The Diplomat  |  Muhammad Murad

The United States government has transitioned its Afghanistan policy from promoting human rights to conducting selective, case-by-case diplomatic contacts with the Taliban, handing the de facto regime a significant political victory. This shift prioritises discrete security issues, counterterrorism, and prisoner releases over broader governance reforms, effectively cementing the Taliban's domestic authority despite ongoing international sanctions.

Following the chaotic August 2021 military withdrawal, Washington suspended formal embassy operations in Kabul, transferring its diplomatic representation to the Afghanistan Affairs Unit in Doha. Under the current administration, the termination of all foreign assistance in mid-2025—following over $3.8 billion in aid disbursed since October 2021—and the closure of the Office of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts have further isolated the population. While the State Department characterises these limited interactions as necessary hostage diplomacy—highlighted by a January 2025 prisoner swap—the Taliban leverages them to demonstrate governing legitimacy, prompting regional powers like Russia and India to normalize relations with Kabul.

Beijing’s Next Play for the South China Sea: How China Is Normalizing Its Control

Foreign Affairs | Lynn Kuok

Chinese coast guard personnel landed on Sandy Cay in April 2025, marking Beijing's first formal, on-the-ground sovereignty assertion over an unoccupied Spratly Islands feature in over a decade. This landing, alongside extensive dredging at Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands, signals a strategic shift from maritime rights disputes to contesting and normalizing control over uninhabited land features.

These activities strain the nonbinding 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which previously restricted claimants from occupying uninhabited features. By exploiting legal gray zones on land where sovereignty remains unresolved, China complicates the defensive calculus of neighboring coastal states like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Consequently, quieter tactics such as deploying research vessels and establishing nature reserves allow the power to consolidate administrative authority without triggering direct military escalation. This incremental consolidation threatens to undermine the rules-based regional order and weakens the United States' strategy of rallying regional partners through public exposure of coercive behavior.

What does deeper tech integration during US-led Rimpac mean for China?

South China Morning Post | Gabriel Dominguez

The US-led Rim of the Pacific (Rimpac) military exercises around Hawaii integrated advanced uncrewed systems, long-range missiles, and digital manufacturing networks to counter China's growing anti-access/area-denial capabilities in the Western Pacific. This massive 30-nation biennial drill demonstrated unprecedented tactical coordination by linking multinational land, air, surface, and undersea assets into a single target-tracking network.

These operational advancements respond directly to American defense assessments warning that Chinese long-range radars and precision missiles could strike allied forces before they can close distance. To enhance coalition cohesion, the drills expanded leadership roles, appointing a South Korean rear admiral to command the multinational maritime component alongside Canadian, Japanese, and Chilean deputies. Furthermore, Japan deployed its mobile Type 12 anti-ship missiles near key waterways, while autonomous vessels successfully replenished moving warships to test resilient methods of sustaining dispersed forces under active threat. Ultimately, these exercises demonstrated a level of interoperability and trust that stands in sharp contrast to Beijing's unilateral regional posture.

The Loneliest Island: Will America Truly Defend Taiwan?

Foreign Affairs | Bonny Lin

China escalated its gray-zone coercion against Taiwan through "Justice Mission 2025," a massive military exercise that encircled the island and disrupted international air traffic. This operation, alongside a 22 percent increase in airspace intrusions and a June maritime quarantine rehearsal, threatens to permanently alter the cross-strait status quo before the 2028 Taiwanese presidential election.

Beijing's pressure campaigns, supported by military purges to accelerate readiness, aim to politically undermine President Lai Ching-te and weaken the Democratic Progressive Party in upcoming local and national elections. To counter these incremental tactics, scholar Eyck Freymann proposes a strategy of "structured ambiguity" where the United States imposes proportional political and economic costs for every Chinese revisionist action. However, implementing such deterrence remains highly challenging, especially as Washington's recent concessions on tariffs in the face of Beijing's rare-earth export threats highlight a reluctance to bear the severe economic costs of a potential escalation spiral.

Saudi Arabia's dilemma as it tries to stay out of US-Iran war

BBC  |  Frank Gardner

Saudi Arabia has carried out joint strikes with the US on Iranian proxy militias in Iraq following persistent hostile drone attacks on the Kingdom. This sudden operational shift threatens Riyadh's long-standing diplomatic effort to remain neutral in the wider conflict currently consuming Washington and Tehran, raising the stakes for Gulf security.

The escalation directly threatens Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic diversification strategy, which relies heavily on attracting foreign investment and protecting vulnerable domestic infrastructure like high-tech data centres. Recent drone strikes on the Abqaiq oil facility and Houthi attacks on commercial Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab El Mandeb strait have exposed the critical vulnerability of Saudi energy exports. Although Riyadh previously secured a fragile 2022 truce with the Houthis, this multi-front threat from Yemen and Iraq forces a difficult strategic choice between continued military deterrence and expensive diplomatic de-escalation.

Trump has four bad choices on Iran. Here’s the least horrible one

MSN  |  Bobby Ghosh

United States President-elect Donald Trump faces an immediate national security crisis concerning Iran's rapidly advancing nuclear enrichment program and its regional proxy network. The incoming administration must choose between launching direct military strikes, greenlighting a preemptive Israeli offensive, resuming maximum pressure sanctions, or negotiating a new diplomatic agreement.

Decades of mutual hostility and the collapse of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action have left Tehran closer than ever to weapons-grade uranium. While military options risk triggering a catastrophic regional war and sanctions alone have failed to halt enrichment, a transactional diplomatic settlement represents the least destructive path forward. This pragmatic framework would trade targeted sanctions relief for verifiable caps on nuclear development and a cessation of hostile proxy activities. Ultimately, pursuing a negotiated deal allows Washington to contain Iranian ambitions while avoiding another costly, protracted military entanglement in the Middle East.

Restoring America's Service Academies and War Colleges

Restore the Military

U.S. service academies and war colleges face a comprehensive restructuring under a proposed four-pillar reform agenda designed to refocus officer training exclusively on warfighting lethality. This policy initiative builds on Executive Order 14173 to eliminate race- and sex-based admissions considerations while prioritizing physical fitness, demonstrated leadership records, and cognitive aptitude.

Decades of institutional drift toward civilian academic norms have diluted the primary mission of producing officers capable of winning the nation's wars. To correct this, the proposal mandates a strict 75/25 curriculum split, dedicating three-quarters of academic credits directly to tactical, operational, and strategic military competencies, including military history and strategy. Non-essential social science electives will be permanently purged, and participation in the Rhodes Scholarship Program will cease to prevent ideological distraction. Ultimately, these statutory changes aim to restore colorblind, merit-based admissions and cultivate senior leaders who prioritize battlefield victory over civilian credentialism.

Trump can still win the Iran war

UnHerd  |  Edward Luttwak

President Donald Trump is facing mounting frustration five months into the war in Iran as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintains its grip on Tehran. A loosely worded memorandum of understanding negotiated in Pakistan inadvertently triggered the conflict by prompting unprecedented Iranian sovereignty claims over the entire Persian Gulf and demanding transit fees.

To counter these maritime disruptions, the United States enforced a total embargo on oil exports from Kharg Island and Jask, collapsing the rial and restricting military imports from China. This economic strangulation has severely degraded funding for regional proxies, including Hezbollah and the Houthi militia, who now threaten the Bab-El-Mandeb strait and global energy prices. While Washington currently targets infrastructure, the regime's true vulnerability lies in its leadership. Leveraging Israeli targeting capabilities to eliminate top commanders offers a direct path to ending the conflict without deploying American ground forces to the Gulf.

Technology and Military Disruption: Inbound from the Space Frontier

Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies | Jess Sponable and Priyanka Mishra.

Proliferated Low Earth Orbit (pLEO) constellations and commercial space technologies are rapidly disrupting traditional military paradigms, forcing a shift away from legacy orbital architectures. This technological evolution compels the United States Space Force to transition from high-value, exquisite satellites to resilient, distributed networks to maintain space superiority. This architectural shift responds directly to the rapid proliferation of Chinese and Russian kinetic and non-kinetic counterspace weapons designed to degrade American orbital assets.

By integrating commercial remote sensing, tactical communications, and rapid launch capabilities, the joint force aims to establish a dynamic, self-healing orbital infrastructure. Consequently, these advancements redefine deterrence in the space domain, requiring updated operational doctrines, enhanced cyber defenses, and flexible procurement strategies to outpace adversary developments. Ultimately, securing these critical orbital frontiers ensures uninterrupted precision navigation, early missile warning, and secure tactical communications for global multi-domain operations, safeguarding allied power projection capabilities.

When Lethality Isn’t Enough: The Army and the Missing Element of Combat Power

Modern War Institute | Jonathan Buckland

The United States Army faces a critical strategic fragility as its modernization initiatives prioritize weapon system lethality over operational availability, leaving advanced platforms vulnerable to disruption in peer conflicts. A 2025 Government Accountability Office report revealed that none of the service's major ground combat vehicles met operational availability objectives due to declining mission-capable rates.

This systemic vulnerability stems from a growing reliance on complex civilian contractor support, proprietary software diagnostics, and just-in-time supply chains that cannot survive contested environments. Historical precedents from World War II demonstrate that highly reliable, standardized platforms like the M4 Sherman consistently outperform over-engineered systems like the German Tiger tank in prolonged combat. Modern platforms like the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle and the Javelin antiarmor system risk single points of failure due to exquisite maintenance requirements. To mitigate these risks, the service requires a high-low capability mix, integrating disposable systems like the M72 LAW to ensure resilient, distributed combat power.

Trump Backs New Iran Talks but It’s Unclear What He Hopes to Achieve This Time

The New York Times  |  Michael Crowley

President Trump announced on July 27, 2026, that a new round of diplomacy with Iran could yield a breakthrough, warning that the United States would resume paused airstrikes if negotiations fail. This diplomatic push aims to restore free navigation to the Strait of Hormuz following two weeks of renewed American military attacks.

Tehran quickly denied claims of requesting these discussions, signaling a refusal to offer concessions or engage directly with American officials as regional tensions remain high. With the November midterm elections approaching, former United States officials suggest the Iranian government perceives Washington's leverage as rapidly waning, even as some top Republican lawmakers urge a swift resolution to the conflict. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to visit the White House on Tuesday to advocate for continuing the war, presenting a direct counterwind to these diplomatic efforts.

Why Iran Is in No Rush to Return to Talks With United States

The New York Times  |  Yeganeh Torbati

Iranian officials are refusing to hold direct negotiations with United States negotiators following a recent escalation in military hostilities, betting they can withstand economic and military pressure better than President Trump. This diplomatic impasse persists despite a temporary reprieve in airstrikes, as Tehran seeks formal recognition of its control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz waterway.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has solidified its domestic political and military control during the two-week conflict, framing the halt in US attacks as a strategic victory. However, this prolonged state of limbo between peace and full-scale war poses severe systemic challenges for the Islamic Republic. A continuous United States naval blockade and wartime destruction are projected to severely degrade the Iranian economy, even as military leaders maintain a highly defiant posture. With no formal cease-fire established, the risk of renewed kinetic conflict remains high, leaving the region vulnerable to sudden escalation.

Armed forces: UK future capability and requirements

House of Lords Library

The United Kingdom’s Strategic Defence Review 2025 mandates an immediate transition to warfighting readiness to counter escalating geopolitical threats from Russia and China. This policy shift requires the British armed forces to rapidly integrate conventional combat platforms with autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and digital networks to deter and successfully win high-intensity conflicts.

This modernization drive responds directly to systemic vulnerabilities in force readiness, recruitment, and ammunition stockpiles caused by years of hollowing out. To implement these reforms, the 2026 defence investment plan targets major funding toward cyber defence, advanced missile systems, munitions, and domestic industrial capacity. However, European allies must assume greater responsibility for collective security as the United States shifts its primary international focus away from the region. While parliamentarians support this strategic direction, experts question whether current funding and implementation timelines are sufficient to meet NATO commitments and counter hybrid warfare tactics amid a volatile global security landscape.