Indian Airpower in the Age of Denial Lessons from Operation Sindoor, the Unmanned Imperative and the Way Ahead

CAPSS India  |  Sameer Joshi

Operation Sindoor in May 2025 demonstrated that classical air superiority is no longer achievable against capable adversaries, ushering in a "Zone of Ambiguity" characterized by mutual denial, political indecision, operational challenges from layered air defenses, and contested information narratives. Despite this, Indian airpower proved uniquely capable of delivering rapid, precise strategic effects, forcing Pakistan to request a ceasefire within 88 hours after an Indian S-400 destroyed a PAF AEW&C platform at 300 kilometers and BrahMos missiles cratered five Pakistani airbases.

Quasi-Quarantine Operations Held East of Taiwan

Jamestown | Ying Yu Lin

China Coast Guard (CCG) and Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) agencies launched "law enforcement patrols" and a "special maritime traffic law enforcement operation" east of Taiwan in June. These operations test a "quasi-quarantine" model, projecting PRC maritime jurisdiction beyond the Taiwan Strait and building an interagency toolkit for gray-zone pressure around Taiwan.

SASC advances provision to allow contractor cyber operations

Breaking Defense | Mark Pomerleau

The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) has advanced a provision in its annual defense policy bill to authorize a pilot program for the US government to partner with civilian contractors for cyber operations. This initiative aims to assess the feasibility of using civilian hackers with their own infrastructure to gain access to systems, all under the operational direction of US Cyber Command (CYBERCOM).

The U.S. Is Losing the AI Credibility War—to Itself

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Matthew Ferren

The Trump administration's recent restrictions on Anthropic's advanced AI models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, are undermining critical U.S. cybersecurity outcomes and credibility. This policy shift, following Anthropic's silent response limitations and subsequent global model disablement due to a foreign national ban, highlights serious cybersecurity risks. However, an overemphasis on risk without a clear strategy could cause the United States to miss a generational opportunity to improve national cyber defenses.

Losing the War of the Future: How New Technologies Threaten America’s Military Advantage

Foreign Affairs  |  Paul Scharre

The United States' technological dominance is eroding, as evidenced by a 39-day conflict against Iran from February 28 to April 8. Despite 13,000 U.S. strikes, Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones, destroying or damaging eight U.S. aircraft and killing seven service members, while maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Why “China First” Will Fail: The Limits and Lessons of a Transactional Foreign Policy

Foreign Affairs  |  Patricia Kim

The United States' retreat from global leadership under "America first" has created a vacuum, with some allied countries showing increased favorability towards China. However, China's "China first" strategy, prioritizing narrow national interests, suggests Beijing is not seeking to replace Washington as a global leader or assume superpower burdens.

Why Is Alibaba on a Pentagon Blacklist?

Foreign Policy  |  Charles Sun, Christopher Nye

The Pentagon's recently updated list of "Chinese military companies" includes the e-commerce giant Alibaba, a designation that appears strangely out of place compared to entities like the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC). While AVIC's inclusion is based on direct state ownership and control, the Pentagon's two-sentence rationale for Alibaba's designation as a "military-civil fusion contributor" is "flimsier."

The Mirage of China’s Military Edge: Panic Is Misguided—and Counterproductive

Foreign Affairs  |  Dennis Blair

China's ability to seize Taiwan by force is currently insufficient, despite its significant military buildup over the past 30 years. Alarmist predictions about China's military outpacing the United States are misguided, as current military technology trends favor Taiwan and the U.S. China's investments have been distributed across multiple objectives, including global power projection and maritime defense, rather than solely focusing on a Taiwan invasion.

The Middle East enters the G-Zero

GZERO Media  |  Ian Bremmer

The United States and Iran announced a deal on June 14 to end their recent war, with a signing ceremony set for Friday. Key terms include an immediate ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, an Iranian pledge against nuclear weapons, and financial payout.

De-escalation Without Resolution: Iran and the Limits of American Power

Geopolitical Monitor | László Csicsmann & Scott N. Romaniuk

The planned diplomatic negotiations in Geneva between the US and Iran have been called off, underscoring the fragility of the current diplomatic process and the difficulty of translating military pressure into a sustainable political settlement. This conflict highlights a paradox of American power in the Middle East: unmatched military capabilities are insufficient to create a stable political order, illustrating the limits of US influence and the growing role of regional actors.

Trump thinks his freshly signed ceasefire deal is a victory. It is – for Iran

The Guardian  |  Simon Jenkins

Donald Trump is actively working to end the catastrophic four-month war on Iran, which he initiated with Benjamin Netanyahu, by offering Tehran's military regime a $300bn rebuilding fund, an end to economic sanctions, and a promise of non-interference in its internal affairs. This move signals a US readiness to accept defeat in a potentially "forever war," preventing it from escalating like Vietnam, Afghanistan, or Iraq.

How America’s war crowned Iran as the Gulf’s new hegemon

Asia Times  |  Leon Hadar

The United States' February 2026 war, intended to destroy Iran as a regional power, inadvertently cemented its dominance in the Persian Gulf. This outcome follows a historical pattern in American Middle East policy, previously seen with the 2005 Iraq invasion which magnified Iranian power by eliminating its primary regional counterweight.

Analysis: Everything points to Burnham becoming PM within weeks

BBC News  |  Jack Fenwick, Henry Zeffman, Harry Farley, Nick Eardley

Andy Burnham confirmed his intention to stand as the next Labour leader and UK Prime Minister shortly after 10 o'clock this morning. His most likely rival, Wes Streeting, subsequently backed Burnham, significantly diminishing the prospect of a full leadership contest, which Sir Keir Starmer had appeared to advocate.

Germany, Poland and the Limits of Rapprochement

Geopolitical Futures  |  Antonia Colibasanu

Germany and Poland on June 17 signed a defense agreement, reflecting the evolving European security landscape following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This pact signifies Berlin’s acknowledgment of Warsaw’s critical strategic importance as a primary military power on NATO’s eastern flank.

The Next Russia Threat: Moscow’s Military Power After Ukraine

Foreign Affairs  |  Michael Kofman

The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has reached another inflection point, with Russian forces visibly struggling on the battlefield as Kyiv’s strategy of making the war futile for Russia is proving effective. Despite these battlefield challenges, Russia will remain the primary threat to European security for years to come, even if defeated in Ukraine.

Ukraine's Clausewitzian Strategy

Real Clear Defense | Frank A. Rose

Ukraine has dramatically improved its offensive drone strike capability, enabling sustained, coordinated attacks deep inside Russian territory against strategic targets like energy infrastructure and naval installations. This operational transformation reflects a sophisticated political-military strategy, deeply Clausewitzian in its logic, designed to target Russia's "center of gravity." Ukraine's drone campaign, exemplified by strikes on St.

Ukrainian Strikes Expose Russia’s Weakness Amid Growing Pressure for Compromise

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Pavel K. Baev

Ukrainian strikes on June 17 and 18 against Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery, alongside attacks on the Kronstadt naval base and St. Petersburg refineries, have significantly undermined the Kremlin’s narrative of victory and exposed Russia’s military vulnerabilities. These synchronized high-profile attacks, timed with major diplomatic and economic events like the St.

Putin Has a Problem: For Years, Moscow Could Pretend the Ukraine War Wasn’t Happening. The Drones Over the City Ended That

National Security Journal  |  Reuben Johnson

Ukrainian drone strikes, particularly on refineries ten miles from the Kremlin, have ended Moscow's ability to pretend the Ukraine war wasn't happening. This development, marked by "black, oily rain" falling on the capital, has led to Russians mocking President Putin online for discussing a "multipolar world" while his city burned, effectively cracking the "Putin myth."

Interview – Andrea Miotti

E-International Relations  |  Sebastian Boyd

Andrea Miotti, founder and CEO of ControlAI, warns that the AI industry's rapid development of superintelligence poses an extinction risk to humanity, a concern echoed by leading AI scientists and company CEOs. ControlAI advocates for a global prohibition on superintelligent AI, informing governments and the public. In January 2026, ControlAI supported two UK House of Lords debates on this threat, gaining backing from over 100 cross-party UK parliamentarians for an international moratorium.

Five Eyes intelligence alliance warns of threats from new AI models

Al Jazeera

The Five Eyes intelligence alliance, including US, UK, Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand officials, warned on Monday that frontier AI models are rapidly transforming offensive cyber capabilities. These models are expected to exceed current industry expectations, with the threat timeline measured in months, not years. Officials stressed urgent action is needed, as cutting-edge AI is poised to supercharge hacking capabilities.

Lebanon ceasefire shows need for IDF rethink on slow war doctrine - analysis

The Jerusalem Post  |  Seth J. Frantzman

A new ceasefire in Lebanon and discussions of Israeli withdrawal are prompting questions about the IDF's current "slow war" doctrine, implemented over 989 days since the October 7, 2023 massacre. This protracted approach, characterized by slow, incremental advances akin to World War I tactics, contrasts sharply with Israel's historical preference for rapid, decisive conflicts like the Six Day War or the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

The Middle East Power Paradox

Foreign Affairs  |  Dana Stroul

The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, culminating in an April 8 cease-fire, served as a significant demonstration of Washington's conventional military superiority. President Donald Trump’s administration emphasized the quantitative successes achieved, with the United States alone conducting over 10,000 air sorties and hitting more than 130,000 targets. Crucially, U.S.

Drones Are Not the Future of War—They Are the Problem to Be Solved

Modern War Institute  |  Eric Wesley

The Russia-Ukraine War has become the world’s most intensive laboratory for drone warfare, yet the front line moves only in increments of hundreds of meters per month, demonstrating that drones are a tool of attrition, not decision. While drones have made maneuver more costly, they have not made it less necessary, as they cannot seize or hold ground, nor compel a population to submit.

Preventing Iran’s Military Reconstitution

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Kate Koren, Patrick Panjeti, Emma Surnow, Kevin Kurland, and Omar Al-Ghusbi

U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2026 inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military, particularly its conventional naval surface fleet, shipyards, and aboveground weapon production sites. Despite retaining 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile and 40 percent of its drone arsenal, Iran faces extensive reconstitution needs. Tehran will likely reroute procurement of dual-use and commercial items through Pakistan, the Caspian Sea, and China, as traditional UAE routes become unviable.

The Strange Defeat of Nuclear Deterrence

Foreign Affairs  |  Rose Gottemoeller

In June 2025, Ukraine’s security services executed an audacious strike within Russia, infiltrating the country to hide short-range attack drones near Russian air bases, including those in the Amur region near China. Utilizing Russia’s mobile phone network, Ukrainian operatives remotely launched these drones, successfully destroying at least ten Russian strategic heavy bombers and damaging a total of 41 aircraft, including some vital for nuclear command and control, according to Ukrainian assessments.

The Red Corridor: The Anatomy of India’s 59-Year-Old Maoist Insurgency

Small Wars Journal | Pradeep Barua

India's decades-long Naxalite insurgency, which has claimed thousands of lives and ravaged large swathes of the country, originated in March 1967 with tribal peasants seizing land in West Bengal's Naxalbari block. Led by Charu Majumdar and influenced by Mao Zedong Thought, the movement spread rapidly, forming the "Red Corridor" across central and southern India, affecting over 200 districts by the early 2000s.

The Inevitability Trap: How Narrative Reframing of Destiny Shapes Cognitive Warfare in the Taiwan Strait

Small Wars Journal | Tang Meng Kit

The People's Republic of China (PRC) employs inevitability narratives as a core tactic in cognitive warfare against Taiwan, aiming to portray unification as an unavoidable historical outcome and resistance as futile, a message President Xi Jinping reinforced in his 2026 New Year address. This message is amplified through digital campaigns, with Taiwan's National Security Bureau (NSB) identifying over 45,000 coordinated fake accounts and two million pieces of disinformation promoting China's unstoppable rise and unreliable foreign support.

China is counting its wins from the Iran war

CNN | Simone McCarthy

Nearly four months after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Beijing successfully weathered the ensuing energy crisis and strategically positioned itself as a global champion of peace. China's diplomatic clout significantly rose, with President Xi Jinping hosting multiple foreign leaders and earning repeated praise from US President Donald Trump for its neutrality during the conflict.

US fears China has obtained vital AI machine from Europe

The Telegraph  |  Hans van Leeuwen

The US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, has reportedly expressed concerns that Dutch semiconductor giant ASML may have illegally shipped an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine to China, a major violation of US export controls. These machines are critical for advanced chip manufacturing, and their transfer to restricted markets like China is banned.

China’s New Structure At Scarborough Reef Sparks Alarm And Triggers Collective Response

Eurasia Review

China's apparent installation of a floating structure at Scarborough Reef in late May 2026 has sparked alarm, suggesting Beijing may be preparing a permanent presence at this sensitive South China Sea flashpoint. Philippine officials confirmed a 6-by-6 meter floating platform with personnel and an antenna, triggering diplomatic protests from Manila and increased vigilance from Allies and Partners.

Systems Over Steel: How China is Redefining Amphibious Armor Survivability

Modern War Institute | Joshua Arostegui

China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) maintains a sustained commitment to amphibious armor, exemplified by the discovery of a new mine-clearing variant on its successor chassis to the Type-05 series. This defies Western strategic consensus, which focuses on asymmetric measures like Taiwan's "hellscape" defense using autonomous loitering munitions against vulnerable amphibious vehicles.

Fixing America's Navy

Real Clear Defense | Gary Anderson

The United States Navy faces its first significant post-WWII threat to naval superiority from China, which aims to project global naval power beyond the South China Sea. China's rapid shipbuilding outpaces the U.S., while the U.S. fleet is spread thin and decommissioning Ticonderoga-class destroyers without replacement. Despite these challenges, the U.S.

China wins the Iran war without firing a shot

Asia Times  |  Hriday Sarma

The signing of the first-stage US-Iran memorandum of understanding, noted by Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian, signals a strategic shift primarily benefiting China, which has positioned itself to profit from the US-Iran peace without direct military involvement. This agreement is crucial for restoring global energy flows and ending regional conflict, particularly impacting the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy corridor.

The ‘Tibet Aid’ Cadres System as a Mechanism for Political Control in Tibet

The Diplomat  |  Kalsang Dolma

The Tibet Aid Program (TAP), launched in 1994 for economic development in China's Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), has transformed under Xi Jinping from simple economic assistance to a mechanism for intensified cultural and political control. This shift is implemented through the 15th Five Year Plan (2026-2030), "group style" aid cohorts, and leveraging frontier governance for Han Chinese cadres' career advancement.

Uncertainties In US-Taiwan Defence Relations – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

Taiwan faces growing uncertainties in its defense relations with the United States as Washington reevaluates the island's strategic importance amid closer ties with Beijing to mitigate economic challenges. China's massive military buildup has shifted the cross-Strait balance, dramatically increasing the costs and risks of a US intervention, leading Brookings to suggest replacing "strategic ambiguity" with explicit non-intervention.