Mega Dams and the Narmada River

E-International Relations | Stephen McGlinchey

India’s Sardar Sarovar dam project on the Narmada River triggered widespread transnational civil society opposition led by the activist movement Narmada Bachao Andolan. Initiated in the mid-1980s as part of a multi-thousand-dam river development plan, the project caused severe displacement and environmental concerns. Local activism quickly escalated into a global campaign that exposed systemic environmental non-compliance and opacity.

Activist pressure directly forced the World Bank to perform an independent review and withdraw its $450 million funding package in 1993. This was an unprecedented reversal. Though New Delhi resumed construction in 1999, the mobilization permanently reshaped global development financing standards. It directly inspired the creation of the World Commission on Dams to enforce multistakeholder governance. Similar transboundary water friction remains evident today in Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam along the Nile, where Egypt relies on the river for 90 per cent of its fresh water.

Pakistan’s Punitive Gamble in Afghanistan: An Open War With No End in Sight

The Diplomat | Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Pakistan launched a punitive military gamble in Afghanistan, entering an open confrontation as Islamabad’s persistent demands regarding cross-border terrorism and militant sanctuaries go completely unheeded by Kabul. The Afghan Taliban possess little incentive to accede to Pakistani demands, resulting in recurring military clashes and a rapid breakdown of bilateral ties.

Months of diplomacy and external mediation have failed. To establish deterrence, Pakistani forces conducted strikes targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) camps located deep inside Afghanistan. Islamabad increasingly frames these safe havens as severe threats to both domestic and international stability. Disappointed expectations on both sides have turned former allies into direct foes along the contested frontier. The failure of coercive aerial strikes to compel Kabul leaves Islamabad trapped in an unsustainable cycle of tactical retaliation. With the Taliban unwilling to sacrifice fraternal insurgent alliances, the cross-border campaign risks entrenching an intractable, open-ended war.

Five takeaways from Trump's summit with Xi in Washington

Channel NewsAsia

US President Donald Trump hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington on September 25, 2026, for a high-stakes bilateral summit aimed at addressing escalating trade tensions and regional security friction. The summit produced five major takeaways, centered on stabilizing economic relations while maintaining strategic competition in key technology sectors.

This high-level dialogue marked a critical effort to prevent trade disputes from spiraling into broader macroeconomic instability. Key outcomes included preliminary agreements on tariff adjustments, managed export controls on critical materials, and renewed commitments to military-to-military communication channels. Both leaders reaffirmed their respective national interests while seeking predictable boundaries for strategic rivalry. Tensions remain unresolved over Taiwan. However, the resumption of leader-level talks provides a structured diplomatic mechanism to manage sudden geopolitical crises. Ultimately, the Washington summit reflects a tactical pause in bilateral friction rather than a fundamental shift in long-term strategic competition between Washington and Beijing.

The Guardian view on Trump and Xi: a show of friendship, but no real attempt to address the tensions

The Guardian

Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a bilateral White House summit with US President Donald Trump, yielding a two-month trade war truce extension alongside the lease of two giant pandas to Zoo Atlanta for $1m annually. The high-profile meeting masked unresolved structural frictions across core geopolitical fault lines. Both powers remain deeply entrenched in an escalating technological contest centred on artificial intelligence development.

Beijing's export curbs on rare earths and domestic economic strain tempered immediate tariff escalations, yet neither leader yielded strategic ground. Diplomatic drift creates substantial operational peril. Trump rejected restrictions on artificial intelligence, insisting the leading nation dominates the sector, despite a recent incident where partially automated intelligence mistakenly flagged a Chinese Middle East cargo vessel for carrying nuclear components. Scott Bessent proposed a safety notification hotline, but institutional controls remain minimal as bilateral friction persists regarding Taiwan and Iranian trade.

THE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY IN A NEW ERA

Institute for National Strategic Studies | Joel Wuthnow, Derek Grossman, Phillip C. Saunders, Andrew Scobell, Andrew N.D. Yang

China’s People’s Liberation Army expanded its naval fleet by 60 combat ships — including three aircraft carriers — between 2012 and 2023 while increasing its nuclear warhead inventory from 200 in 2020 to over 600 in 2024. These rapid force modernisations underpin Xi Jinping’s military vision of achieving the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation by 2049.

Political consolidation allowed Beijing to restructure joint command elements and deploy advanced capabilities like J-20 stealth fighters and DF-27 hypersonic glide missiles. However, institutional inertia and ideological requirements continue to limit operational agility across theater commands. Officer development remains compartmentalised within traditional service branches. Crucially, political commissars retain extensive control. Meanwhile, China maintains stable defense spending below two percent of gross domestic product and preserves foundational doctrine centered on deterring Taiwan independence and preparing for potential United States intervention. Consequently, structural reforms yield mixed results, balancing technical sophistication against persistent Leninist party command constraints.

‘China’s SpaceX’ Spins Off Amid Commercial Competition

Jamestown Foundation | John S. Van Oudenaren

China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation subsidiary CASIC Sanjiang sold a 29.6 percent stake in ExPace to municipal state-owned Wuhan Investment Holdings Group for RMB 3.3 billion ($490 million) in early 2026. The transaction represents the largest recorded equity deal in China's commercial space sector. This ownership restructuring reduced CASIC Sanjiang’s controlling share to 26.8 percent while positioning the municipal investor as the firm's largest shareholder.

Originally established in 2016 to commercialize solid-fueled space launch vehicles derived from Dongfeng-21 medium-range ballistic missiles, ExPace faced severe financial losses and schedule delays with its Kuaizhou-11 rocket. Competition intensified. Emerging private launch firms and state-backed rivals eroded ExPace's early market advantage in satellite deployment. The divestment reflects a strategic shift from central state-owned enterprise dominance toward sub-national capital financing across Beijing's space-industrial base. Rebranded as Kuaizhou Aerospace Technology, the enterprise is currently preparing for an initial public offering to secure market-driven capital.

The Wrong Race: The US, China, and AI Competition

Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft | Alvin W. Graylin

The United States and China are currently locked in a high-stakes competition over artificial intelligence that underwrites nearly one trillion dollars in annual capital expenditures and sweeping export control regimes. American capability leads over Chinese models have shrunk from 12–14 months to just 2–3 months despite expanding export restrictions on high-bandwidth memory and lithography equipment.

Chinese open-weight architectures like DeepSeek V4 Flash now achieve performance parity with American frontier models at one-tenth the application programming interface cost. Intelligence is cheap. This technological convergence demonstrates that high-end hardware denial fails to secure a permanent military or strategic advantage between nuclear-armed rivals. Furthermore, small specialized models deployed by non-state actors present a far more immediate existential threat than state-sponsored artificial general intelligence. Achieving long-term security requires Washington and Beijing to abandon winner-take-all frameworks during upcoming bilateral summits and establish shared international safety protocols alongside domestic labor protections for automated workforce displacement.

The Coming Taiwan Crisis: Use Today’s Calm to Prepare for the Next Perfect Storm

Foreign Affairs | Jonathan Czin

Taiwanese and American presidential elections in 2028 will trigger a critical cross-strait flashpoint, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces mounting frustration over Beijing's stagnant reunification strategy. While Chinese military coercion has temporarily slowed following the 2022 Pelosi visit, Beijing remains focused on long-term force organization to compel annexation without a full-scale invasion.

This temporary lull presents a vital two-year window for Washington to bolster Taipei's military posture. The White House must immediately approve a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Taipei has already expanded its own defense commitments, passing a $25 billion supplemental budget to scale domestic drone production and strengthen whole-of-society resilience. China may respond to political disappointment in 2028 with maritime exclusion zones, interdiction of foreign shipping, or island seizures short of a full blockade. Time is running out. Strategic focus must shift from 2027 military readiness timelines toward preparing for post-2028 cross-strait escalation.

The US-China tectonic plates have shifted

Semafor | Andy Browne

United States President Donald Trump welcomed Chinese leader Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews with a 21-gun salute and B-1B bomber flyover, signaling a structural power shift toward Beijing. The lavish greeting followed Beijing's threat to choke off rare earths after Washington imposed tariffs exceeding 140%. China demonstrated its status as a true peer capable of coercing American industrial supply chains.

This summit established a lower diplomatic ceiling despite ceremonial gestures and a state dinner attended by tech executives Tim Cook, Elon Musk, and Jensen Huang. Beyond offering two pandas, Xi secured a two-month trade truce extension while continuing to supply dual-use technology to Russia and rocket propellant to Iran. Beijing is restricting rare earth flows. Meanwhile, bilateral initiatives like an AI risk hotline face severe operational doubt. American leverage has eroded. Washington yielded diplomatic capital for meager deliverables from Beijing despite granting significant political capital and protocol concessions.

Inside Yemen's front-line city as Houthis battle for control

BBC News | Nawal Al-Maghafi

Houthi fighters in Yemen seized the strategic Red Sea port of Mokha on 10 September, advancing 85 kilometres east toward Taiz and securing critical territory overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This offensive broke a four-year ceasefire, threatening vital international shipping lanes, driving up global oil prices, and prompting retaliatory Saudi airstrikes.

The operational push highlights the group's integration of Iranian-supplied drone technology and heavy artillery against fragmented government forces. Control over the mountain routes surrounding Taiz remains heavily contested as both factions prepare for expanded offensives across south-western Yemen. The third-largest city sits at a crucial intersection between Houthi-controlled northern territory and government-aligned southern regions. Human displacement has escalated rapidly across the region. The United Nations reported that more than 130,000 people were displaced during September, adding to 5.2 million already uprooted by the civil war. With an estimated 100,000 more civilians at risk, the escalation threatens complete humanitarian collapse around Taiz.

How Iran Changed War: The Lessons of Tehran’s Use of Precise Mass

Foreign Affairs | Michael Horowitz

American and Israeli airstrikes targeting 13,000 Iranian positions over 37 days failed to collapse Tehran's regime or disable its strike capacity. Instead, the Islamic Republic retaliated using low-cost precision weapons and closed the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy prices. Pre-positioned underground missile networks and dispersed manufacturing hubs enabled Iran to absorb high-volume bombardments while exhausting Western air defences.

Defending against $35,000 Shahed-136 attack drones with $4 million Patriot interceptors rapidly depleted United States stockpiles, consuming 65 percent of available Patriot and 35 percent of THAAD inventories. Offense is currently cheaper than defense. This cost asymmetry allows weaker states to challenge conventionally superior militaries relying on exquisite, expensive platforms like Tomahawk missiles and F-35 aircraft. While American artificial intelligence systems like the Maven Smart System accelerated target processing, strategic victory requires mass production. States worldwide, including Poland with a $6.9 billion drone budget, are now adopting cheap, disposable precision weaponry.

The End of the United Nations

Foreign Policy | James Traub

The United Nations faces existential institutional paralysis amid escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza alongside shifting diplomatic priorities under the Donald Trump administration. Major geopolitical fractures have severely compromised the multilateral body's authority, raising fundamental questions regarding its ultimate survival and future international relevance. To its most powerful member, the United Nations remains significantly more valuable alive than dead despite diplomatic friction.

Institutional mechanisms inside the Security Council continue to reflect deep ideological divides over regional security, international law, and global governance structures. Power politics shape these diplomatic outcomes. U.S. foreign policy decisions directly impact the functional trajectory of multilateral peace enforcement, international assistance frameworks, and global crisis management initiatives across contested regions. While structural inertia and sovereign national interests hinder comprehensive institutional reform, member states continue leveraging the organization for selective diplomatic alignment and strategic communication. Consequently, the organization endures as a contested arena rather than an effective guarantor of collective international security.

Glass House Leadership in the Digital Environment

NCO Journal | Kymberly L. Blanco-Forsythe

U.S. Army leaders face an expanded sphere of professional accountability as persistent digital visibility on social media platforms continuously alters subordinate, peer, and public perceptions of command credibility. Off-duty online interactions such as casual group chat participation, political commentary, or inappropriate post sharing frequently bleed into workplace command climate, eroding authority and organizational discipline across military formations.

Army Doctrine Publication 6-22 establishes that military personnel must demonstrate character, presence, and intellect continuously across both physical and digital operating environments. Personal online conduct alters professional trust. Uncontrolled audience interpretation creates secondary and tertiary effects on unit cohesion, transforming individual digital footprints into lasting measures of leader judgment. Completely disengaging from online platforms risks operational isolation from a digitally native force, whereas oversharing erodes referent and legitimate social power bases. Sustained leadership effectiveness therefore requires consistent self-awareness, emotional intelligence, and deliberate boundary management to preserve authority across all observable professional domains.

As A.I. Accelerates, Governments Are Increasingly Being Left Behind

The New York Times | Adam Satariano, Cecilia Kang

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen convened senior officials outside Brussels on Sept. 4 to address accelerating artificial intelligence capabilities and the widening global regulatory policy vacuum. Unresolved debates over balancing economic competitiveness against emerging technological safety risks continue to stall actionable policy across the 27-nation bloc.

Newly appointed A.I. czar Jim Hagemann Snabe, chairman of industrial firm Siemens, advocated leveraging models for regional economic growth during the strategic retreat. Other attendees expressed deep concerns over escalating security dangers and structural governance gaps. Policy paralysis persists. In her Sept. 16 State of the Union address, von der Leyen emphasized that unlocking technological potential remains impossible without mitigating systemic operational hazards. Unilateral European Union enforcement risks placing member states at a competitive disadvantage if other global powers fail to institute reciprocal regulatory guardrails, complicating international alignment and leaving critical technology governance frameworks deeply fragmented.

Narrative Failure: Russia and the West have a Storytelling Problem

CEPA | Thomas Kent

Russian and Western strategic communications face structural breakdown as competing narrative frameworks fail to persuade key non-aligned audiences in the Global South. Moscow relies heavily on historical grievances, anti-colonial rhetoric, and state-backed disinformation campaigns to undermine Western diplomatic cohesion. Meanwhile, Western governments struggle to counter these influence operations effectively, often deploying fragmented messaging that fails to resonate beyond traditional allied blocs.

Institutional inertia hampers rapid crisis response. This communication deficit exposes broader strategic vulnerabilities in contemporary hybrid warfare. Beyond immediate propaganda battles, the inability to control strategic messaging directly threatens international consensus on sovereignty, sanctions enforcement, and territorial integrity. Consequently, third-party nations increasingly view both Russian assertions and Western diplomatic counter-arguments with skepticism, diluting democratic norm projection. Operational effectiveness in the modern information domain requires integrated, cross-agency narrative strategies that link public diplomacy directly with defense policy, intelligence sharing, and economic engagement to rebuild long-term strategic credibility across contested geopolitical theaters.

Russia strikes at heart of Ukraine’s digital economy with attacks on ISPs and datacentres

The Guardian | Pjotr Sauer

Russian drone strikes hit several major datacentres and internet service providers across Kyiv, temporarily cutting off digital connectivity for about 100,000 households as winter approaches. The attacks killed four people at the headquarters of telecommunications firm Datagroup and coincided with a suspected sabotage attack on a Polish Starlink satellite station serving Ukraine.

Targeting commercial digital nodes represents a deliberate operational effort to disrupt the communications backbone sustaining Ukrainian financial institutions, online payment platforms, and vital government administration. Physical destruction now complements long-range bombardment strategies. Although Ukraine’s decentralized network topology previously mitigated widespread systemic outages, persistent kinetic strikes using advanced jet-powered drones threaten to overwhelm local emergency power backup systems. Foreign and domestic intelligence officials note that disabling civilian internet exchange points creates compounding operational friction for civic logistics during seasonal grid heating collapses. Russian strategic planners remain intent on exhausting Ukrainian economic endurance by neutralizing urban telecommunications infrastructure.

Inside Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi That Sees Its Troops Gaining Ground In The East

The War Zone | Howard Altman

Ukrainian forces from the Third Army Corps regained 125 square kilometres of territory near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast during Operation Vivaldi. Spearheaded by Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky, the counteroffensive demonstrated how structural command reforms can overcome persistent frontline infiltration by Russian mechanized forces. Commanders abandoned rigid Soviet-era leadership models to streamline tactical decision-making cycles and empower non-commissioned officers across degraded subordinate brigades.

This operational overhaul allowed Ukrainian forces to stabilize forward positions, integrate Special Operations Forces and Defense Intelligence units, and stockpile critical strike munitions. Unmanned aerial systems targeted Russian fuel depots and supply pipelines, forcing enemy logistics to re-route prior to Ukrainian ground maneuvers. Russian units retreated toward the Zherebets River. Simultaneously, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported to the United Nations General Assembly that Russian forces suffered 248,964 casualties in eight months, despite launching over 2,100 missiles and 7,700 jet-powered Shahed drones against Ukrainian infrastructure.

As Russia adapts to Ukraine's middle strikes, elite drone units stay ahead of the curve

The Kyiv Independent | Francis Farrell

Ukraine's 422nd Unmanned Systems Regiment is utilizing custom middle-strike loitering munitions to establish operational fire control over Russian logistics routes across occupied southern territory. Operatives employ Starlink-guided Hornet loitering munitions and heavy 50-kilogram Zozulia strike drones to interdict military transport along the strategic E58 highway leading to occupied Crimea.

Operating between tactical 35-kilometer FPV limits and 300-kilometer deep-strike zones, these uncrewed systems compress the operational depth previously available to rear echelons. Russian forces responded by deploying mobile fire teams and elite Rubicon interceptor units to protect vulnerable vehicle columns from constant aerial attack. Ukrainian crews countered by prioritizing those mobile air-defense vehicles as primary targets. Supplies to front lines have slowed. While Moscow increasingly relies on mesh radio modems and its emerging Rassvet satellite constellation following SpaceX terminal restrictions, Ukrainian drone units maintain mid-range aerial superiority across the open southern theater.

More than 100K personnel use Maven Smart System: Pentagon official

DefenseScoop | Jon Harper

The Pentagon has expanded its user base for Palantir’s Maven Smart System to over 100,000 personnel following operational demands during Operation Epic Fury. The AI-powered software fused disparate data streams and targeting workflows, enabling U.S. forces to strike 13,000 targets across a 38-day campaign. To solidify this capability, Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg directed the transition of the platform into a formal program of record by fiscal year-end, following a contract ceiling increase past $1 billion.

However, expanding AI capabilities across combatant commands has exposed critical hardware constraints. Severe compute bottlenecks remain. Consequently, Deputy Undersecretary James Mazol is petitioning Congress to fund the AI Arsenal initiative for secure, government-owned sovereign data centers. Simultaneously, Chief Digital and AI Officer Cameron Stanley emphasized leveraging data architecture to streamline end-to-end logistics, aiming to better prepare military supply chains for high-intensity, multi-month conflicts.

Competitive Intelligence Has a Blind Spot: Narrative Intelligence

EdgeTheory | Edge Theory

EdgeTheory's intelligence framework combines traditional Competitive Intelligence with Narrative Intelligence to eliminate critical strategic blind spots across corporate market environments. Downstream signals such as pricing adjustments, executive resignations, and product releases reveal visible competitor actions, but upstream signals, including evolving claims, emotional audience reactions, and emerging category terminology, shape market perception well before official developments manifest.

Evaluating these early narrative dynamics allows organizations to trace information origins, map influential network actors, and measure claim durability across digital platforms. Information environment context transforms raw data into actionable insight. Consequently, integrating upstream narrative tracking with traditional competitor monitoring enables corporate leadership teams to refine messaging, adjust product positioning, and prepare sales enablement resources before market shifts take hold. By systematically implementing a Detect, Assess, and Shape analytical framework, modern enterprises convert unstructured public commentary into decision-ready strategic intelligence, securing an operational advantage over industry rivals.

We tested how AI chatbots would handle foreign propaganda. They did surprisingly well

NPR | Huo Jingnan

An empirical study by NPR and NewsGuard evaluated how artificial intelligence chatbots and search engine summaries handle foreign state disinformation from China, Iran, and Russia across 30 specific queries created between December 2025 and July 2026. Conversational AI tools like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini successfully debunked false state-backed narratives roughly three-quarters of the time, outperforming traditional web search results.

AI summaries delivered spotty results. Search-embedded summaries from platforms like Microsoft Bing failed to challenge false claims at higher rates than conventional search links, whereas Google's AI Overview maintained stronger debunking capabilities. Digital literacy researchers from the University of Washington found that chatbots frequently cited authoritative sources and effectively parsed foreign-language debunks. However, performance degraded significantly when questionable sources saturated the information ecosystem or when queries were submitted in Chinese. Verification against primary sources remains essential because about 1 in 9 claims in AI search overviews lacked direct source support.

Beyond the Memory Cycle: AI, HBM, and the New Semiconductor Shortage

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Sujai Shivakumar, Charles Wessner, and Thomas Howell

Global memory manufacturers Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating fabrication capacity toward High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) to meet surging artificial intelligence data center demand, triggering a structural global semiconductor shortage projected to persist into 2028. This strategic pivot starves conventional dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) and NAND flash markets, elevating critical supply chain security risks for consumer electronics, automotive manufacturing, and military platforms.

High fixed operational costs and multi-year fabrication facility lead times prevent rapid production adjustments, leaving global markets vulnerable to sudden structural demand shocks. Capital concentration reinforces this extreme instability. With the Big Three controlling 90.5 percent of DRAM sales in late 2025, advanced stacking and packaging requirements keep commercial HBM manufacturing heavily concentrated in East Asia. Consequently, tighter conventional supplies create expanding market opportunities for Chinese producers like ChangXin Memory Technologies and Yangtze Memory Technologies, deepening Western reliance on foreign suppliers for foundational digital hardware.

Coalition Operations

Center for Security and Emerging Technology | Emelia Probasco, Sophie Mayo, Lauren Kahn

Artificial intelligence-enabled decision support systems (AI-DSS) like the Maven Smart System are reforming allied coalition operations by streamlining command decisions and real-time data integration across disparate partner networks. These software platforms accelerate foreign disclosure processes, establish unified common operating pictures, automate multilingual translations, and optimize coalition targeting workflows during complex military operations.

Persistent political friction, rigid classification rules, and incompatible cybersecurity standards historically hindered multinational interoperability. Technological adoption now faces new headwinds as allied nations pursue sovereign AI capabilities amid growing skepticism over commercial vendors and shifting American defense commitments. Technical integration remains uneven. Despite these hurdles, NATO Task Force Maven achieved full security accreditation within one year, demonstrating unprecedented institutional adaptability compared to traditional eighteen-month deployment timelines on U.S. networks. To consolidate these operational gains, defense leaders advocate expanding live exercises like Scarlet Dragon while establishing unified data governance frameworks under the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office.

Rethinking Export Controls as a Tool in Modern Technology Competition

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Sujai Shivakumar, Thomas Howell, Charles Wessner

The Center for Strategic and International Studies published a major report on September 21, 2026, addressing the application of export controls within modern international technology competition. Authored by Sujai Shivakumar, Thomas Howell, and Charles Wessner, the study investigates how unilateral and multilateral trade restrictions impact critical technologies and economic security.

Strategic technology competition requires modernised regulatory frameworks. The release, made available as a 2902kb document download, sits alongside broader research initiatives across CSIS programs covering artificial intelligence, critical minerals, missile defense, and economic security. Key organizational elements, including the Wadhwani AI Center and the Japan Chair, complement this work with targeted analyses on drone warfare developments, maritime posture, and bilateral security challenges. The report evaluates policy options for balancing national security imperatives with global commercial integration. Navigating these regulatory tradeoffs remains essential for future industrial policy.

The Autonomy Revolution on the Battlefield: Cybersecurity, Communications, and Operational Resilience

Israel Defense

An August 2026 Israeli Ministry of Defense Directorate of Defense Research & Development review highlights widespread electronic warfare disruptions mapping GPS interference from France to the Pakistani border. Data from the Pulsar-0 experimental satellite recorded signal degradation dropping navigation strength from 40 dB down to 10 dB. Electronic jamming threatens autonomous command networks.

To preserve tactical continuity, defense architecture requires resilient communications and continuous onboard cybersecurity. The European iMUGS2 robotics program demonstrated autonomous relay node switching across six unmanned ground vehicles during a 72-hour field trial, counteracting signal loss. Additionally, the United States Department of War mandated onboard continuous cybersecurity under the September 2025 Cybersecurity Risk Management Construct. Defense firm Mobilicom addresses these vulnerabilities through its Secured Autonomy framework, integrating ICE Cybersecurity and OS3 software for multi-layer platform and fleet isolation. Securing connected autonomous assets against cascading cyber attacks remains vital for maintaining modern battlefield decision dominance and mission success.

India After the Liberal Order

Council on Foreign Relations | Manjari Chatterjee Miller

India and the United States face growing divergence in their strategic partnership as Washington increasingly contests the liberal international order it originally constructed. While shared concerns over Chinese expansion initially fostered bilateral defense and economic ties, deep-rooted Indian skepticism toward Western-dominated multilateral institutions has persisted since 1947. Decades of structural diplomatic friction persist.

Recent U.S. shifts toward economic protectionism, tariff regimes, and altered climate policies have upended traditional diplomatic alignment, reinforcing New Delhi’s long-standing preference for strategic autonomy. Defense technology transfers, trade friction, and diverging approaches to global crude markets remain persistent friction points between both nations. Nevertheless, mutual security concerns regarding China continue driving tactical cooperation, alongside emerging collaboration in artificial intelligence, space exploration, and frontier technologies. This evolving bilateral alignment illustrates a broader post-liberal global paradigm defined by transactional, patchwork agreements rather than universal international rules or norms.

Chaplains and Commissars: An Analysis of the People’s Liberation Army’s Political Work System and the Will to Fight

Small Wars Journal | Reed Bauer

China’s People’s Liberation Army relies on its political work system and political commissars to institutionalize Party loyalty while cultivating combat morale and the institutional will to fight. Unlike Western militaries that utilize chaplains to foster individual spiritual readiness under the US First Amendment, the PLA embeds political commissars, directors, and instructors across every command echelon to enforce political alignment.

This structural dual-command framework grants regimental political commissars key administrative leverage over direct military commanders through Party Standing Committees. Chinese military thought views soldier motivation as a collective function rooted in obedience to the Chinese Communist Party rather than personal conviction. Political alignment overrides pure tactical proficiency. Systemic reliance on ideological compliance creates structural friction within operational command chains during dynamic warfare scenarios. Consequently, adversary psychological operations can exploit these institutional vulnerabilities by actively degrading soldier trust in top leadership and the Central Military Commission during potential high-intensity theater conflicts.

Covert Compute

C4ads | Mishel Kondi

Chinese research institutions and universities procured at least 56 restricted NVIDIA chips worth US$1.7 million between July 2025 and January 2026, bypassing U.S. export controls through uncredentialed intermediaries. These illicit acquisitions exploit persistent vulnerabilities in international enforcement regimes. C4ADS trade data reveals that Southeast Asian transshipment networks diverted 50 shipments of advanced graphics processing units through Vietnam, India, and Malaysia to Hong Kong and China between 2023 and 2025, totaling approximately US$13.4 million.

Opaque corporate ownership structures further obscure these illicit supply chains, highlighted by Megaspeed International Pte. Ltd. importing US$4.6 billion in NVIDIA hardware from 2022 to 2025 while maintaining ties to the People’s Republic of China. Because these figures rely on limited open-source records, the total volume of diverted hardware is likely much higher. Closing these regulatory loopholes requires enhanced jurisdictional coordination, rigorous post-sale end-user verification, and more stringent private-sector compliance obligations.

Building a multilateral cognitive warfare defense network: A collaborative framework for the United States, Japan, and Taiwan

Atlantic Council | Yu-Hao Shen

The Chinese Communist Party has expanded cognitive warfare beyond its traditional “Three Warfares” framework into artificial intelligence-driven operations targeting first island chain democracies, notably Japan and Taiwan. Beijing systematically weaponises contractor-developed algorithms to exploit localized fears of United States abandonment across these vulnerable littoral societies. Structural constraints prevent both targeted democracies from enacting sweeping content censorship due to robust free speech protections and public skepticism of state information controls.

Legal regulation cannot outpace evolving algorithmic subversion. Utilising the Disinformation Analysis and Risk Management framework, operational assessments reveal that Taipei offers deep linguistic insight alongside agile civil society monitoring, while Tokyo contributes advanced interagency alliance coordination and international strategic communication. Integrating these asymmetric strengths into a multilateral early-warning network supported by Washington bridges existing bilateral security pacts with a shared cognitive common operational picture. This collaborative posture shifts regional deterrence from fragmented, reactive crisis containment toward proactive collective resilience against authoritarian information campaigns across the Western Pacific.

Why US chip controls took a back seat at the Xi-Trump summit

South China Morning Post | Vincent Chowin

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump omitted semiconductor export controls from official readouts during their September 2026 Washington summit, reflecting a shifting strategic balance in the bilateral tech war. Foreign chipmakers face declining market share in China, projected to drop from 34 percent to 21 percent by 2026.

This quiet stalemate stems from Beijing's advancing domestic chip substitution driven by its 15th Five-Year Plan. While the Trump administration maintained 2022 restrictions and banned exports of Nvidia's H20 chips, Chinese tech firms capped H200 purchases, forcing Nvidia to absorb a $400 million inventory charge. Domestic self-reliance reduced Beijing's urgency to demand immediate relief. However, impending US congressional legislation like the Match Act threatens this fragile October 2025 Busan agreement detente by targeting Dutch ASML immersion lithography equipment. Any expanded restrictions will trigger severe Chinese retaliatory export controls on critical rare earth elements.