BRICS Grits Its Teeth Through a New Delhi Breakthrough

RealClearDefense | Aarti Betigeri

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted leaders from eleven Global South nations at the eighteenth BRICS summit in New Delhi, securing unanimous adoption of a joint declaration comprising nearly 140 clauses. The gathering marked Chinese President Xi Jinping’s first official visit to India in seven years despite ongoing bilateral border friction.

Coming amid an expanding Middle East conflict entering its sixth month and persistent war in Ukraine, the consensus overcomes the diplomatic stalemate that blocked agreement at May's ministerial meeting. Multipolar institutions are asserting greater collective authority. The resulting text advocates structural reforms to the United Nations Security Council, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund while opposing unilateral Western sanctions. The declaration prioritises local currency settlement systems in international trade and peaceful space research cooperation. Side meetings enabled direct dialogue between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and UAE leadership, establishing a functional pragmatic platform for rival regional powers.

Why Have Indians Become a Regular Target of Hate in Singapore?

The Diplomat | Asif Ullah Khan

Singapore is experiencing a sharp rise in racial hostility and derogatory online attacks targeting its ethnic Indian community, threatening the city-state's long-cherished model of multicultural cohesion. Recent online backlash has targeted nine Singaporeans of Indian descent missing in Nepal, alongside xenophobic attacks against Temasek chief executive Dilhan Pillay Sandrasegara over corporate investments.

This friction challenges the foundational nation-building policies established when Lee Kuan Yew led Singapore out of the Malaysian Federation on August 9, 1965. To prevent alienation after the 1964 race riots left 36 people dead, Lee instituted English as the primary administrative language and mandated strict ethnic quotas in housing. Social media has now shattered this carefully managed peace. Resentment has intensified as Singapore Airlines, which owns 25 per cent of Air India, reported a 57.4 per cent net profit drop to S$1.2 billion for the year ending March 2026, fueling conspiracy theories that the Indian-origin executive would prioritise the loss-making airline.

Pakistan: Rising ISPP Menace

Eurasia Review | Ruchika Kakkar

Islamic State Pakistan Province (ISPP) militants assassinated Khurshid Pandrani Raisani in Balochistan, Pakistan, on September 8, 2026, signalling the group's persistent campaign of sectarian and political violence. This targeted killing follows a devastating suicide bombing on February 6, 2026, at Islamabad's Khadijah al-Kubra Imambargah that killed 32 Shia worshippers and injured 169 others.

Formed in May 2019 after splitting from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), the group leverages residual anti-Shia sectarian networks historically linked to Lashkar-e-Jhangvi to execute low-to-medium intensity operations. The group lacks immediate territorial ambitions. Instead, it prioritises sectarian polarisation through targeted assassinations of Shia Hazaras, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam activists, and security personnel across Balochistan and urban centres. While smaller than its parent organisation, the faction's fluid cadre loyalties, encrypted communications, and deep-seated local ties sustain its operational resilience, posing a persistent threat to Pakistan's internal security as it continues to exploit deep sectarian fault lines.

The Avoidable Tragedy At PIMS

Brief PK

Islamabad's Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) suffered a catastrophic nursery tragedy that turned a highly funded facility into a disaster zone. Japan financed the facility's intensive-care wards, fire alarms, and firefighting equipment, while Pakistani authorities supplied billions more in domestic funding to secure the hospital. A nursery filled with oxygen became a death chamber during the incident, which began at 6:45.

The exits were locked. Rescuers arriving at the scene discovered that these locked doors prevented escape and hindered rescue operations. This critical failure of operational protocols and safety oversight occurred despite the advanced equipment provided by Japanese donors and the massive financial resources allocated by Pakistani authorities. The tragedy highlights severe gaps in facility management, emergency preparedness, and basic safety compliance at one of the region's major medical institutions, where locked exits nullified millions in modern safety systems.

Bangladesh: Stressed Media

Eurasia Review | Sanchita Bhattacharya

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Islamist groups have intensified physical assaults and legal prosecutions against journalists, severely undermining press freedom during the country's ongoing political transition. Since August 5, 2024, at least 13 media workers have been killed and 62 injured in 53 separate incidents of violence. This systemic hostility reflects a broader breakdown in the rule of law following the ouster of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, during which over 100 people were killed in political violence.

The International Crimes Tribunal is now being deployed to prosecute reporters like Shyamal Dutta and Mozammel Babu under "crimes against humanity" charges for their coverage of the July 2024 protests. Meanwhile, a May 18, 2026, Police Special Branch directive ordered the collection of political profiles and social media data on Dhaka-based reporters. At least 266 journalists currently face active litigation. Press freedom is under siege.

Environmental Exploitation And Deception

Eurasia Review

Chinese state-affiliated mining firms and private enterprises are systematically outsourcing highly polluting critical mineral extraction and refining processes to Southeast Asian nations with weak regulatory frameworks. This strategic relocation secures Beijing's dominance over global electric vehicle and defence supply chains while externalising severe ecological and human costs to vulnerable host states.

In Indonesia, entities like Tsingshan Holding Group control approximately 75 per cent of nickel refining capacity, relying on massive coal-fired plants like the 5-gigawatt Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park. Rainforest clearance there exceeds 8,700 hectares. Meanwhile, unregulated rare-earth extraction in Myanmar's conflict-torn Shan and Kachin states has triggered transboundary arsenic pollution, with the Stimson Center identifying 2,420 unregulated mining sites contaminating major river systems. These operations threaten the health of millions downstream along the Mekong River, prompting calls for alternative supply chains, rigorous buyer standards, and enhanced satellite monitoring to counter this transboundary ecological crisis.

Fighters Without Borders: Mercenaries, Adventurers, and Volunteers in Myanmar’s Civil War

The Diplomat | Thurein Naing, Harry Myo Lin

The Tiger-2026 joint military exercise in July 2026, featuring Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) training alongside Myanmar troops, marks a significant escalation in military co-operation between Moscow and Naypyidaw. This growing official presence, complemented by suspected Russian mercenaries, aims to bolster the embattled regime of Min Aung Hlaing against a highly effective domestic resistance.

Historically, Myanmar's complex borderlands have long attracted diverse foreign actors, ranging from the CIA-backed Kuomintang in the Cold War to French Foreign Legion veterans advising the Karen National Union in Kawthoolei. Foreign involvement is not new. Today, the conflict draws volunteers like the Anti-Fascist Internationalist Front, alongside Ukrainian and American drone instructors arrested in India in August 2026. Concurrently, China has expanded its footprint, deploying the Frontier Security Group to protect strategic infrastructure in Kyaukphyu. This influx of Russian personnel and Chinese private security firms threatens to internationalise the civil war, transforming local struggles into a complex arena of competing geopolitical interests.

Securing the Supply Chain: China’s Critical Minerals Network and the Security Risks for the Americas

Diálogo Américas | Maria Zuppello

Latin America's critical minerals market, valued at approximately $180 billion, is facing deep integration into China's industrial supply chains as Beijing expands its control over regional lithium and copper reserves. This consolidation directly threatens the national security of Western nations reliant on these materials for advanced defence manufacturing.

Historically, Chinese state-owned enterprises have leveraged direct investments, such as the $20 billion mining portfolio in Peru and the La Arena project, to monopolise downstream refining. Consequently, sixty-two per cent of regional mineral exports remain unprocessed raw materials, leaving local economies vulnerable to predatory pricing and supply manipulation. This extreme market concentration severely weakens local bargaining power. To counter this dominance, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil are implementing national strategies like Brazil's National Mining Plan 2050 to build domestic processing capacity and establish diversified, integrated commercial networks with the United States and the European Union.

The Coming AI Backlash

Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire

Artificial intelligence policy is going to be the central issue in the 2028 U.S. presidential election since rapid technological advances are causing serious disruptions at home. The leading models are expected to be 250 times more powerful by the day of the election, and growing public opposition is being driven by concerns over widespread job losses, the possibility of cyber weaponisation, and national security risks.

The political pressure arises from the fact that federal regulation is almost non-existent, which has caused voters to feel economically at risk and has made them more suspicious of state surveillance. AI is still very unpopular; just 10 per cent of Americans are excited about the technology, and politicians such as Senator Bernie Sanders are calling for immediate moratoriums on data centres. At the same time, the military's use of autonomous systems in Iran has reduced target identification from hours to seconds, showing how important it is to keep ahead of China in terms of technology. In order to avoid a catastrophic situation, future U.S. policy had better both secure global supply chains, put in place safety tests, and redistribute the productivity gains brought about by AI.

The World’s Only Real Hope of Maintaining Order

Foreign Policy | Charles Kupchan

A new global concert system, which has been designed by Charles Kupchan, provides a form of governance that is both centralised and regionalised in order to preserve the international order in the face of growing geopolitical tension. The system is intended to handle the systemic instability caused by the competition between the United States and China, the war in Ukraine, and the worsening crises in the Middle East. In the past, established international organisations such as the United Nations have had difficulty in adapting to a multipolar arrangement of power.

The framework suggested assigns managerial responsibilities to the regional organisations while still keeping a central core made up of the great powers in order to stop local conflicts from spreading into global wars. A consensus among the great powers is essential. By combining regional autonomy with central supervision, this two-pronged system aims to maintain stability even though the existing multilateral institutions continue to suffer from constant deadlock. In the end, this reform is a practical way of avoiding systemic collapse in an age characterised by fragmented alliances, technological disruptions, trade disputes, and changing global power relations.

Are Chinese Firms Handing the United States Data?

Foreign Policy | Deng Yuwenr

There is a risk that Chinese artificial intelligence companies taking part in international AI safety programmes and making use of American foundational models could be unintentionally sending sensitive data to the United States; since this data transfer takes place via API queries, joint research, and bilateral technical summits with American firms such as Anthropic, it reveals a serious weakness in Beijing's digital sovereignty strategy.

Although China is aiming to keep strict control over domestic data, the fact that its business sector depends so much on advanced AI systems from the West and on Western cloud infrastructure means that there is a constant and unwatched flow of confidential information. This situation leads to serious intelligence risks. As a result, the struggle for superiority in AI capabilities weakens Beijing's attempts to protect its internal information system from foreign spying, so that commercial activities become a means of geopolitical espionage. The resulting tension shows how difficult it is to disconnect highly integrated technology supply chains, since Chinese developers have to continually strike a balance between achieving top operational performance and complying with ever more stringent state-imposed security regulations.

China’s Top Spy Chief Warns A.I. Is a Threat to Party Rule

The New York Times | Lily Kuo

On September 14, 2026, Chen Yixin, minister of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, stated that artificial intelligence represents a direct threat to the rule of the Chinese Communist Party and urged an increase in party control as well as more stringent regulatory supervision. In an article published in China Cyberspace, Chen pointed out the dangers posed by sophisticated foreign models such as Claude Mythos and GPT-5.5-Cyber, giving as examples the use of deepfakes for propaganda, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, and hostile intelligence activities.

Foreign intelligence agencies are actively using algorithm-based tools to attack domestic networks, and there are still serious breaches of information security. It has recently come to light that the Chinese company Moonshot AI directed queries involving Chinese military video surveillance data to the American Claude servers. Moreover, the use of American military AI during the conflict between the U.S. and Israel over Iran shows just how automated sensing and algorithmic targeting have fundamentally changed modern warfare on the battlefield. In order to meet these developing threats, Beijing is placing a higher priority on data sovereignty and state security than on international agreements concerning AI safety ahead of the September 24 bilateral summit in Washington.

How Cascading Crises Are Testing Saudi Arabia’s Foundations

Eurasia Review | Murray Hunter

Saudi Arabia faced severe military and economic pressure in September 2026 following rapid Houthi advances along Yemen's Red Sea coast. The insurgent group seized the strategic ports of Mocha and Dhubab, alongside Perim and the Hanish Islands, effectively restricting shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This maritime blockade immediately threatened regional energy security.

Concurrently, drone strikes disabled the critical 1,200-kilometre East-West Petroline to Yanbu, severely constraining Saudi crude export capacity. To mitigate these vulnerabilities, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly sought intelligence assistance from Israel via U.S. Central Command. However, this outreach risks undermining the kingdom's religious legitimacy as Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques. Furthermore, the August 2026 Makkah Joint Defense Agreement with Turkey and Pakistan has failed to deliver active military support. These compounding external shocks now threaten to inflame domestic vulnerabilities, including royal succession disputes, fiscal strain, and unrest among volatile border tribes in Najran, Jazan, and Asir.

Iran and the Emerging Security Order in the Middle East

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Vali Nasr

Iranian missile and drone strikes against United States military infrastructure in February 2026 effectively dismantled the decades-old American regional security architecture across the Persian Gulf. Following an initial U.S.-Israeli assault, Tehran systematically targeted over a dozen American bases, destroying key facilities like the U.S. Navy Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.

This deliberate offensive forced Washington to relocate remaining military assets to Israel, Jordan, and Syria after interceptor stocks dwindled. Iran gained strategic leverage. Simultaneously, Tehran closed and asserted sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz, converting global maritime commercial connectivity into a direct economic vulnerability. Strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas field wiped out 17 per cent of its LNG capacity for three to five years. President Trump signed a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to avoid global economic catastrophe, tacitly accepting Tehran's expanded posture while Arab monarchies reassessed their long-standing reliance on Western defence guarantees.

Two alliances just failed Saudi Arabia. Then they called Trump

Washington Examiner | Emzari Gelashvili

Houthi forces seized complete control of the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait after capturing Mokha, Dhubab, and Perim Island following missile and drone strikes against four Saudi cities that wounded 73 civilians. The swift offensive abruptly severed crucial Red Sea trade routes, sending Brent crude prices soaring near $108 per barrel.

Despite the recent signing of the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, mutual defence partners Pakistan and Turkey provided no military assistance to Riyadh. Facing additional drone strikes against its East-West oil pipeline from Iraqi territory, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested direct American military intervention. President Trump declined the request, prioritising naval focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz while offering intelligence support instead. The Houthis subsequently instituted a selective blockade, granting de facto immunity to Chinese-flagged vessels while targeting Saudi-linked shipping. Treaties proved ineffective. Washington chose operational restraint over opening a second front ahead of high-level diplomatic summitry with Beijing.

MAGA Is Making the World Safe for Corruption

The Atlantic | Anne Applebaum

The Trump administration unexpectedly imposed 50 per cent tariffs on Brazilian products and sanctioned Supreme Court justices in the summer of 2025 to influence the country's internal politics. This unprecedented deployment of economic coercion targeted Justice Alexandre de Moraes for prosecuting former President Jair Bolsonaro and clashing with billionaire donor Elon Musk.

Historically, Washington reserved such punitive measures for dictators and international criminals rather than friendly democratic partners. The sudden policy shift reflects a broader alignment between far-right ideologues and private interests, transforming American foreign policy into a tool for private gain and antidemocratic reaction. This is transactional foreign policy. The administration's actions directly support Bolsonaro, who faced trial for plotting a 2022 coup that culminated in his supporters storming Brazil's Parliament. By leveraging financial and travel sanctions to punish foreign judicial officials, the United States risks permanently fracturing regional alliances.

Is the U.S. Army Backing Off on Drones?

Council on Foreign Relations | Michael C. Horowitz

The U.S. Army faces growing scrutiny over its commitment to integrating uncrewed systems following several high-profile setbacks in mid-2026. During the Combined Resolve exercise in Hohenfels, Germany, the 3rd Armoured Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, was decisively outperformed by highly experienced Ukrainian drone units operating in contested electromagnetic environments.

This operational deficit coincides with the service phasing out a specialised European-based airborne infantry battalion dedicated to drone experimentation. Leadership transitions further complicate this trajectory. The resignation of Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll, champion of the Army Transformation Initiative, leaves a leadership void. While Acting Chief of Staff General Christopher LaNeve emphasises basic soldiering, Pentagon initiatives like the Drone Dominance Program and a projected $55 billion budget for the Defence Autonomous Warfare Group in fiscal year 2027 could offset these institutional shifts. Ultimately, rapid tactical adoption remains critical to maintaining a modern competitive edge.

THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT

House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence | U.S. House of Representatives

President George W. Bush established the National Counterterrorism Centre in August 2004 through Executive Order 13354 to integrate all-source terrorism intelligence across the foreign-domestic divide. Congress codified the entity under the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 to lead strategic operational planning under the Director of National Intelligence.

This structural overhaul addressed critical pre-9/11 coordination failures between the Central Intelligence Agency and the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Strategic authorities, however, were deliberately restricted from directly commanding field execution. Implementation gaps soon emerged. During the November 2009 Fort Hood shooting and the December 2009 Detroit airline bombing plot, federal agencies held critical threat records on Nidal Hasan and Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab but failed to cross-reference existing databases. These operational breakdowns underscored that legal structural unification alone could not resolve lingering analytical oversight and data-sharing friction across intelligence agencies.

How Al-Shabab Beat the Peacekeepers

Foreign Policy | Mohamed Gabobe

Al-Shabaab militants have successfully exploited the phased drawdown of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia to reoccupy critical territories and intensify asymmetric attacks across the Horn of Africa. This security vacuum exposes the systemic vulnerabilities of the Somali National Army, which remains plagued by severe logistical deficits and unresolved clan rivalries.

Over nearly two decades, international partners poured billions of dollars into AMISOM and its successor, ATMIS, yet failed to build a self-sustaining local security apparatus. The insurgents maintained operational resilience by establishing a highly effective shadow administration that out-taxes the federal government. Somalia's security forces cannot hold ground alone. This vulnerability invites disaster. With the transition to a new African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia threatened by regional disputes between Ethiopia and Egypt, the militant group is poised to expand its influence and destabilise East Africa.

The case for climate realism in an age of soaring energy demand

Engelsberg Ideas | Dieter Helm

Global energy demand is projected to double by 2050, driven by a massive technological shift toward energy-intensive industries like artificial intelligence. This surge severely undermines the conventional decarbonisation narrative, as intermittent renewable sources fail to meet the strict reliability requirements of these emerging digital sectors, forcing a reliance on fossil fuels.

Historically, European nations outsourced their emissions by offshoring heavy manufacturing to China, creating a false impression of decoupled economic growth. Now, the Jevons paradox dictates that efficiency gains actually lower prices and stimulate consumption. Clean energy is a myth. Every power source relies on destructive mining for critical minerals. Consequently, the world will likely miss the 2015 Paris Agreement target of keeping warming well below 2°C. Nations must therefore prepare to adapt to rising sea levels and peak temperatures while accepting that true mitigation requires a fundamental, politically difficult reassessment of global economic growth and consumer demand.

The Insurance Industry’s Retreat from AI Threatens to Slow Innovation and Adoption

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Gregory C. Allen

State insurance commissioners in the United States approved over 80 percent of insurer requests to exclude artificial intelligence damages from corporate coverage policies on April 23, 2026. This regulatory shift positions insurance carriers as de facto regulators capable of stalling commercial artificial intelligence deployment nationwide. A 2025 Geneva Association assessment revealed that generative AI fails three criteria under the traditional Berliner insurability framework.

Severe information asymmetry prevents underwriters from auditing underlying models or pricing risks accurately. Meanwhile, cumulative corporate litigation related to generative AI expanded by 978 percent between 2021 and 2025. Uninsurable activities effectively become prohibited activities. To resolve this market failure, policy proposals advocate establishing a national incident database at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, forming a state-federal regulatory working group, creating a Price-Anderson-style federal liability backstop, and licensing independent verification organizations. These structural reforms aim to convert private insurance from a deployment barrier into a safety accelerator for emerging technologies.

Curbing the proliferation of commercial spyware starts at the demand-side

Clingendael Institute | Myrthe de Boon

Commercial spyware tools like NSO Group's Pegasus and Paragon's Graphite enable states to conduct intrusive offensive cyber operations, threatening international security and fundamental human rights. Initiatives like the United Kingdom and France-led Pall Mall Process aim to establish multi-stakeholder governance frameworks for cyber intrusion capabilities. Industry codes of practice remain fundamentally insufficient without rigorous demand-side procurement oversight, authorization mechanisms, and strict state accountability.

Voluntary norm-generating initiatives routinely suffer from a severe implementation deficit between formal commitments and domestic enforcement practices. Enforcement gaps persist worldwide. Within the European Union, robust legal architecture exists on paper yet fails in practice when national political will is absent. The targeting of figures like European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen illustrates the expanding reach of unregulated market proliferation. Effective governance requires combining domestic legislative reforms with geographically representative global capacity-building measures to prevent vendor relocation to permissive jurisdictions.

Building Trust in AI Is Critical to the Frontier’s Future

Council on Foreign Relations | Vinh X. Nguyen

On September 12, 2026, leaders from Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Google DeepMind publicly agreed to pace artificial intelligence development to establish safety and security controls. This unprecedented consensus responds to growing concerns that advanced AI could pose existential risks to humanity, prompting Anthropic and OpenAI to offer independent evaluators employee-level access to model risks.

This voluntary industry shift occurs as the White House downplays risks to maintain a competitive edge over China. Voluntary commitments remain insufficient. Establishing a Congress-authorised self-regulatory organisation under the U.S. Commerce Department would provide enforceable standards and close critical information asymmetries among companies, buyers, and regulators. Furthermore, managing the diffusion of Chinese-origin open-weight models requires coordinated action from regulated financial, healthcare, and life sciences industries alongside the Open Secure AI Alliance to secure widely used systems. Ultimately, building a robust trust infrastructure will secure a competitive advantage that adversaries cannot match.

In AI and Nuclear Alike, Extraordinary Claims Need Extraordinary Evidence

Real Clear Defense | Jason Van der Schyff

On 12 September 2026, Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei warned that autonomous artificial intelligence agent swarms could hijack major internet infrastructure within six to twelve months. This extraordinary claim highlights growing national security concerns over unverified catastrophic risks during intensifying technology competition with China. Distinguishing demonstrated capability from speculative extrapolation remains crucial for defence analysts evaluating emerging frontier models.

Unilateral restrictions adopted in California cannot be reliably inspected across Chinese state laboratories. Evidence must drive policy. Drawing clear lessons from the 1942 Manhattan Project, where physicists Hans Bethe and Emil Konopinski calculated atmospheric ignition risks before the Trinity nuclear test, governments must require empirical proof rather than theoretical fear. Frontier developers including Anthropic and OpenAI retain proprietary capabilities and can self-regulate by pacing unreleased deployments. Hardening critical infrastructure, securing model weights, and enforcing rigorous technical sandboxing provide far more durable security than top-down growth caps.

New defence-industrial strategies target capacity and resilience, but put cooperation at risk

International Institute for Strategic Studies | Lucie Béraud-Sudreau

Eight nations, including the United States, Canada, and Sweden, have published their first dedicated national defence-industrial strategies to rapidly expand manufacturing capacity and secure fragile military supply chains. This policy surge responds directly to the high equipment attrition rates and massive munitions consumption witnessed in the war in Ukraine.

Historically, peacetime "just-in-time" production models left Western industrial bases poorly prepared for sustained, high-intensity conflict. To address this, governments are integrating non-traditional commercial suppliers of dual-use technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, framing defence spending as an engine for domestic economic growth. Global defence spending has surged since 2020. However, these nationalistic industrial policies risk undermining international collaboration, potentially stalling joint initiatives like the US-led Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience or causing the collapse of collaborative projects. Ultimately, states face a stark choice between supporting domestic industries and cooperating to deliver military capabilities faster and at a lower cost.

The Missing Third Tier In Pakistan’s Federal System

Eurasia Review | Sahibzada Muhammad Usman

Pakistan's 18th Constitutional Amendment and Seventh NFC Award transferred 57.5% of the divisible tax pool to provinces alongside 47 devolved subjects, yet failed to empower local municipal authorities. This fiscal structure created severe federal imbalances in the FY 2026–27 budget, where gross receipts of Rs 20.60 trillion leave net federal revenues at Rs 11.75 trillion after Rs 8.85 trillion in provincial transfers.

Debt servicing strains Islamabad's treasury balance. Mandatory liabilities including Rs 8.05 trillion in interest payments, Rs 3 trillion for defence affairs, and Rs 1.17 trillion for pensions total Rs 12.2 trillion, exceeding net federal revenue receipts. World Bank data indicates local government expenditure collapsed from 10% of total public spending in 2005 to under 5% by 2024. While Article 140A mandates local administrative autonomy, provincial secretariats recentralized financial authority. Completing constitutional decentralization requires binding, formula-based transfers directly to elected district and municipal councils.

China's Proxy Conflicts: Is World War III Upon Us?

Gatestone Institute | Gordon G. Chang

Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping is actively waging proxy conflicts across three continents to challenge the post-World War II American international order. Rather than treating disparate regional crises as isolated transactional disputes, the Western alliance faces an interconnected strategic offensive supported by joint Sino-Russian efforts in Europe and the Middle East.

Beijing deliberately leverages Maoist doctrine to encircle Western influence through peripheral pressure in critical operational theaters like Ukraine. This systematic encirclement strategy mirrors late 1930s escalation dynamics where separate regional conflicts rapidly consolidated into full-scale global war. Deterrence fails when caution is misread as weakness. Moscow and Beijing now possess existential incentives to maintain high-intensity attrition warfare, escalating risks that desperate leadership could resort to strategic weapons. Suppressing these expanding regional proxy contests requires direct confrontation against Chinese strategic support networks before distinct theater engagements lose operational boundaries entirely.

Elemental Leverage: How the United States Can Stop China’s Rare-Earths Squeeze Before the Next Crisis

CIMSEC | Josh Richards, Joseph Hanacek

Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang in August 2025 warned Beijing would restrict rare-earth exports if Washington tightened advanced technology controls, leveraging China’s monopoly over critical defense and clean-energy supply chains. China currently controls approximately 70 percent of global rare-earth mining, 90 percent of separation processing, and over 90 percent of high-performance magnet manufacturing.

Beijing uses this industrial asymmetry to exert geopolitical pressure. Domestic operations like California’s Mountain Pass Mine still remain dependent on overseas midstream processing despite extracting raw concentrates. To counter this vulnerability before a potential cross-strait conflict, the United States must execute a multi-track strategy focused on domestic refining, allied sourcing compacts, expedited permitting, and strategic reserves. Accelerating midstream processing is vital. Expanding initiatives through the Defense Production Act, the Minerals Security Partnership, and advanced recycling frameworks will secure the supply of vital elements like neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium against future market coercion.

The New Chinese Way of Cyberwar: How Beijing Will Weaponize Digital Chokepoints

Foreign Affairs | Anne Neuberger

Chinese state-sponsored hackers have compromised United States communications, energy, and transportation infrastructure to pre-position capabilities for strategic digital sabotage. These intrusions threaten electrical blackouts, contaminated municipal water supplies, and delayed military mobilisations by exploiting structural asymmetries between centralised authoritarian cyberdefenses in China and decentralised, privately owned American utilities.

Legacy operational technology running across 4,500 public water systems and 3,000 electric utilities creates broad exposure. Offensive AI models amplify these risks exponentially. The vulnerability is severe. To counter these footholds, Washington must establish air-gapped national enclaves run by the Department of Energy and Department of Commerce, allowing infrastructure operators to deploy AI digital twins that stress-test networks and feed actionable patches into the White House Gold Eagle initiative. Establishing legal safe harbour protection alongside federal grant pools will incentivise private participation. As outlined in Foreign Affairs, proactive AI defence simulations represent the critical pathway to secure infrastructure before digital chokepoints trigger theatre-wide paralysis.

Iran’s proxy money machine: How the Houthis built a multibillion-dollar network despite US sanctions

Fox News | Efrat Lachter

Yemen’s Houthi movement has established a multibillion-dollar illicit financial network, leveraging Iranian support, illicit fuel smuggling, and commercial taxation to evade US sanctions. This clandestine financial infrastructure sustains high-tempo maritime strike campaigns against commercial shipping corridors in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait. Shadow banking networks and front companies across Middle Eastern jurisdictions provide resilient funding streams independent of formal banking oversight.

Western sanctions fail to sever these revenue channels. Consequently, regional trade flows remain vulnerable to continuous anti-ship ballistic missile and uncrewed aerial vehicle attacks. The Houthis divert domestic port revenues, charge transit fees, and utilise unregulated exchange houses to move capital. Iranian Quds Force facilitators orchestrate oil shipments, converting petroleum revenues into operational funding for advanced weaponry. Sanctions enforcement faces structural friction against decentralized, non-state financial architectures. The group's financial independence secures long-term military endurance, guaranteeing prolonged instability across critical international maritime chokepoints.