15 May 2026

India, the United States, and Democratic Values in the International Order

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Manjari Chatterjee Miller
India's historical partnership with the United States advanced due to converging strategic interests, like countering China and economic alignment, rather than shared democratic ideals, which mainly served as background affinity. Recent accusations of democratic backsliding in both nations, particularly India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the second Trump administration, have reduced democratic values to a bilateral irritant. This article posits democratic values represent a crucial shared structural challenge for the fraying liberal international order. It reframes the inquiry to assess India's engagement with democratizing norms within the global system, beyond domestic report cards. Sarang Shidore highlights India's multialignment strategy to democratize global governance, creating synergy and friction. Kate Sullivan de Estrada maps India's selective participation in the liberal order’s security architecture, deepening cooperation while maintaining autonomy. Constantino Xavier examines India's potential as a democratic tech power, anchoring an alternative to China’s model, though jeopardized by Washington's retreat from democratic coalition-building. Assessing U.S.-India convergence requires focusing on their commitment to champion international democratic norms.

How India Is Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Powerhouse

National Interest  |  Harrison Kass
India is significantly modernizing its nuclear arsenal, aiming to enhance its deterrent capabilities while adhering to a No First Use (NFU) doctrine of credible minimum deterrence. The country maintains a comprehensive nuclear triad, comprising land-based Agni missile families (Agni-V capable of reaching Beijing), sea-based SSBNs (INS Arihant, Arighaat, Aridhaman) equipped with SLBMs ensuring a survivable second-strike, and air-based fighter aircraft (Mirage 2000H, Jaguar, Su-30MKI, Rafale) capable of delivering nuclear gravity bombs or cruise missiles. This modernization includes plans for the Agni-VI missile with 10,000-12,000 km range and MIRV capability, expanded SSBN launch tubes, and the development of hypersonic systems. Strategically, India's enhanced capabilities keep China and Pakistan in check, reinforcing regional stability, but also introduce heightened escalation risks due to the close proximity of India and Pakistan. This transition signifies India's move towards global reach, strengthening deterrence and adding complexity to global strategic dynamics.

ISKP’s Exploitation of the Af-Pak Border War

Small Wars Journal | Uma Miskinyar
The Iran–Afghanistan–Pakistan corridor experiences a critical overlap of regional conflicts, profoundly reshaping militant dynamics in Balochistan. Since early 2025, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP) expanded operations into Pakistan’s Balochistan, initiating direct conflict with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Pakistan declared "open war" on Afghan Taliban authorities in February 2026, intensifying cross-border strikes along the Durand Line. ISKP exploits this instability and Pakistan's divided military attention to delegitimize the state and undermine BLA's nationalist appeal, evidenced by its May 2025 propaganda video. The 2021 U.S. and NATO withdrawal reduced intelligence visibility, complicating counterterrorism. The Afghan Taliban maintains "strategic ambiguity" toward the BLA, while the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) forms tactical alliances with Baloch insurgents, creating a "blurred combat zone." ISKP leverages digital platforms and Balochi-speaking intermediaries to propagate its jihadist narrative, challenging BLA's influence and posing a significant "triple threat" to U.S. counterterrorism interests.

Strategic Spaces of the Sino-Nepali Borderlands: Making and Breaking Trans-Himalayan Trade Relations

Strategic Space NBR  |  Galen Murton
Chinese infrastructure investment and development in Nepal are critical to the People’s Republic of China’s territorial integrity and strategically extend the Chinese Communist Party’s power into sensitive South Asian spaces. A grounded geographic review reveals a historical link between border resolutions and Chinese-facilitated infrastructure, an ongoing "corridorization" of Nepal, and persistent border oscillations challenging local mobility while escaping PRC controls. Nepal established diplomatic relations with China in 1955, leading to border demarcation and early "infrastructural relations" like the 1961 China-Nepal Highway Construction Agreement. From 2000-2020, transborder infrastructure development and foreign direct investment rapidly scaled up under the Belt and Road Initiative, with Chinese FDI surpassing Indian FDI in 2014. Following the 2015 earthquakes, Beijing provided unprecedented humanitarian aid and financial commitments. A 2015–16 Indian-backed blockade at Nepal’s southern border prompted China to deliver emergency fuel, marking a significant geopolitical realignment for Nepal, India, and China.

Pakistan’s Military Consolidation Under Munir Faces Critical Challenges

Carnegie Endowment| Zoha Waseem and Yasser Kureshi
Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, has significantly consolidated military power over three years, formally entrenching its dominant role within the constitutional framework. Munir leveraged strong international ties, including gaining U.S. President Donald Trump's trust, fostering relationships with Arab and Gulf states, and mediating between Iran and the United States. Domestically, the military utilized a weak civilian government, media control, and repression to silence dissent, exemplified by the imprisonment of Imran Khan and other political opponents. The regime’s “hard state” approach, an uncompromising militarized doctrine, targets internal security and political management, expanding political prisoners and criminalizing assemblies. Critical challenges persist in Balochistan, where a separatist insurgency intensifies, threatening foreign investments like China’s CPEC and potentially triggering further India-Pakistan confrontations following the May 2025 conflict. Simultaneously, security forces battle the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, exacerbating instability. The 27th constitutional amendment further solidified Munir’s authority by creating a Chief of Defence Forces role, granting formal operational command over all services, aiming to insulate military leadership from political uncertainty.

Lombok Strait As An Alternative To The Malacca Strait: Prospects And Challenges – Analysis

Eurasia Review  |  Muhammad Shalahuddin Al Ayyubi and Dina Purnamaningtyas
Indonesia's Lombok Strait holds significant strategic importance as a crucial alternative to the Malacca Strait for global shipping. Geographically positioned between Bali and Lombok, it acts as a vital buffer connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans, offering superior depth and width suitable for supertankers and other giant vessels that struggle with Malacca's shallower waters. In 2023, the strait recorded over 21,547 ship passages, facilitating substantial trade, including significant iron exports from Australia to China. Its potential extends beyond trade, promising increased maritime revenue and tourism opportunities between Bali and Lombok if infrastructure and logistics are enhanced. Since 2020, Indonesia has implemented a Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS) to ensure navigational safety, prevent collisions, and protect the rich marine ecosystems. However, challenges such as potential pollution, waste management, and the need for human resources and infrastructure optimization remain to fully realize the strait's productive future.

At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Will Have the Upper Hand

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Rush Doshi, Chris McGuire, Heidi E. Crebo-Rediker, David Sacks, David M. Hart
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping convened in Beijing on May 14–15, with China holding a strategic advantage in a summit delayed by U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. The meeting occurred amidst global economic instability driven by high oil prices and a fragile U.S.-China trade truce. Beijing's confidence stemmed from the U.S.'s Iran conflict and China's solidified dominance in critical minerals and global energy supply. Xi Jinping's belief that "the East is rising" was reinforced by China's success in countering Trump's previous trade escalations, notably by threatening rare earth mineral restrictions. Economic discussions saw China aiming to consolidate its technological position and revive its economy, while the U.S. sought symbolic trade wins. Taiwan was a critical issue, with Beijing pushing for U.S. policy shifts, including an explicit statement opposing independence. AI dialogue focused on safety, which China viewed as an opportunity for technology access to narrow its gap with the U.S., underscoring a need for targeted dialogue with maximum pressure from Washington.

China's Malacca Dilemma, After the Hormuz Blockade

Foreign Policy | Chee Meng Tan
China confronts a significant strategic vulnerability concerning its energy security, highlighted by the "Malacca Dilemma" in the wake of a hypothetical Hormuz Strait blockade. Beijing's heavy reliance on maritime oil imports traversing crucial chokepoints presents a profound challenge to its economic stability and national resilience. The analysis suggests that Western-dominated insurance premiums, rather than conventional military force, represent a highly effective means to disrupt China's vital oil supplies. Such economic leverage could escalate shipping costs to prohibitive levels, effectively choking off Beijing's access to energy without direct military engagement. This indirect, financial pressure poses a more insidious threat than traditional naval blockades, forcing China to reassess its strategic planning for maintaining uninterrupted resource flows. The reliance on global shipping and financial infrastructures underscores a critical dependency that complicates China’s pursuit of comprehensive energy self-sufficiency and geopolitical influence, demanding innovative solutions beyond mere military might.

Legos at War: Iranian Information Operations

Small Wars Journal  |  Lawrence E. Cline
Iran has significantly escalated its information operations (IO) campaign in response to recent US military activities, demonstrating increasing sophistication in the online information environment. Key to this effort is "Explosive Media," an ostensibly independent Iranian company producing widely viewed Lego-style animated videos with hip-hop soundtracks, often featuring themes of US casualties, the Epstein Files, and Israeli influence over American politics. Despite YouTube removing their content, these videos persist on platforms like X and other social media, achieving significant global reach. Iranian embassies worldwide have also actively engaged in IO, posting memes and AI-generated content that mock US leadership and promote Iranian power, indicating a possible internal competition for impact. Iran’s employment of AI for propaganda and its 'white' strategic communications, including visuals of human chains around civilian targets, underscore a multifaceted approach. The campaign's effectiveness is evident in its ability to quickly integrate emerging US controversies into messaging and has prompted US embassies to request more proactive countermeasures against this influential Iranian narrative.

The Ceasefire in the War on Iran: Determinants and Prospects

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies  |  The Unit for Political Studies
The United States and Iran achieved a ceasefire on April 8, 2026, ending a 40-day military confrontation that had brought the region to the brink of a wider conflict and an unprecedented global energy crisis. Pakistan brokered this crucial agreement, which stipulates a two-week suspension of hostilities and the commencement of negotiations in Islamabad on April 10, 2026, aiming for a permanent peace. This diplomatic breakthrough occurred merely hours before a US deadline, issued by President Donald Trump, for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, failing which Iranian energy facilities and other critical infrastructure faced imminent targeting. The brief war underscored significant geopolitical tensions and the precarious nature of stability in the Middle East, highlighting the potential for rapid escalation with global repercussions.

U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities

The New York Times  |  Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan
Early May 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments reveal Iran's military capabilities remain substantially intact, directly contradicting public assertions by the Trump administration. Classified findings indicate Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the critical Strait of Hormuz, posing a significant threat to American warships and oil tankers. Furthermore, Iran retains approximately 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, encompassing both ballistic and cruise missiles, and about 70 percent of its mobile launchers nationwide. Intelligence also confirms roughly 90 percent of Iran's underground missile storage and launch facilities are now partially or fully operational. These detailed assessments underscore that Iran's military is far stronger than President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have publicly claimed, maintaining a robust regional threat posture despite rhetoric of its decimation.

Top Pentagon tech officials optimistic Mythos-style AI tools will improve cyber defense

Breaking Defense  |  Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
Pentagon's top tech officials, including CTO Emil Michael and Assistant Secretary for Cyber Policy Katherine Sutton, express confidence that advanced AI tools like Anthropic's Mythos will revolutionize cyber defense. During the SCSP AI+Expo, they highlighted AI's capacity to identify and patch vulnerable code in "minutes to seconds," drastically reducing the "weeks to days" required by human intervention. This rapid remediation capability is essential for overcoming decades of technical debt within the Department of Defense's legacy systems. While acknowledging that AI could also accelerate exploitation, Michael underscored the critical need for the nation to harden its systems. The officials downplayed a dispute with Anthropic, asserting that Mythos represents merely the initial wave of potent cyber-capable AI models from various US tech firms. The Pentagon is diversifying its AI partnerships, evident by eight leading tech companies recently gaining clearance to deploy their AI on classified networks, ensuring no single model dictates future defense capabilities.

The US Military Is Failing: Facts Need To Be Faced

Phillips's Newsletter  |  Phillips P. OBrien
Zelensky publicly challenged former President Trump concerning a promised 1000-prisoner exchange, reportedly brokered by Trump on Putin's behalf, which Russian authorities swiftly disavowed following a recent Red Square parade. This bold move by Ukraine raises critical questions about American commitment and Trump's credibility, especially given his subsequent silence on the matter, suggesting a potential alignment with Russian interests. Concurrently, Iran decisively rejected the Trump administration's peace plan, countering with its own "victory plan" that demands an immediate ceasefire, assertion of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all U.S. sanctions, reparations, and a significantly truncated nuclear moratorium without facility dismantlement. This rejection contradicts the White House's narrative of Iranian compromise, highlighting a persistent stalemate and the ongoing possibility of renewed hostilities as the U.S. government responds with threats. These international developments serve as a critical backdrop for an impending analysis of the US military's perceived shortcomings.

Checkmate in Iran

The Atlantic  |  Robert Kagan
A hypothetical confrontation with Iran portends an unprecedented strategic defeat for the United States, far more profound than past setbacks in Vietnam or Afghanistan. Unlike those conflicts, a loss against Iran would be irreparable, permanently altering America's global position and influence. Control over the Strait of Hormuz would solidify Iran's status as a key regional and international power. This outcome would significantly strengthen the roles of China and Russia, who are allied with Iran, while simultaneously undermining the credibility and perceived capabilities of the United States. Such a defeat, rather than showcasing American strength, would expose its unreliability and inability to achieve its strategic objectives, triggering a global reevaluation by both allies and adversaries. Nations would be forced to adjust their strategic calculations, acknowledging a substantially diminished American role and a newly empowered Iranian-led bloc, fundamentally reshaping the international order.

Trump Mulls Hormuz Operation As Iran’s ‘Stupid’ Proposal Leaves Truce ‘On Life Support’

Eurasia Review  |  Arab News
US President Donald Trump is contemplating reactivating "Project Freedom" in the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating tensions with Iran after a proposed truce faltered. Trump expressed a strong commitment to pressing Tehran until it "surrenders," even claiming Iran requires US assistance for nuclear stockpile extraction. The proposed "Project Freedom" would expand beyond its initial scope of escorting commercial vessels, having been briefly suspended for diplomatic overtures. Trump dismissed Iran's response to a US peace plan as a "stupid proposal," likening the ceasefire's viability to a dire one percent chance. Iran's demands included war damages compensation, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and removal of oil export restrictions, which Trump deemed "totally unacceptable" on Truth Social. This rejection by Trump led to a sharp rise in oil prices, signaling a potential continuation of the 10-week conflict and prolonged disruptions in the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.

Chief Executives to Accompany Trump to China

The New York Times  |  Tyler Pager
President Trump, in May 2026, traveled to China accompanied by a significant delegation of 17 American chief executives, including prominent figures like Elon Musk of Tesla and Tim Cook of Apple. This high-profile visit aimed to engage Chinese leader Xi Jinping in discussions concerning the establishment of a board of investment and a board of trade between the two nations, signifying a strategic effort to manage and potentially expand economic ties. A notable late addition to the delegation was Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, whose presence underscores the critical global competition in artificial intelligence and the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding advanced chip technology. Huang had actively lobbied Washington and Beijing for nearly a year to facilitate Nvidia's sales of AI chips to China, highlighting the dual-use nature of such technologies. Elon Musk's inclusion also marked a significant rehabilitation of his relationship with the former president, having previously served as a top advisor. The diverse industrial representation within the delegation indicates a comprehensive approach to U.S.-China economic relations, despite underlying strategic tensions.

Trump’s Iran Strategy Collides with Hormuz Reality

Gcaptain  |  Eric Martin and Magdalena Del Valle
President Donald Trump's revised Iran strategy now prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, deferring complex negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. This shift instigated renewed US-Iran clashes, with US warships protecting merchant vessels and Iran attacking UAE oil facilities and US Navy ships. Despite hostilities, US officials declared the war over, focusing on diplomacy to secure navigation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio preferred a deal to fully open the Straits, pushing back other critical discussions. Ongoing Iranian drone and missile attacks on US destroyers, met with US retaliatory strikes, highlight the administration's difficulty controlling regional events. Critics compare this to past Trump-era peace efforts, which often postponed difficult resolutions. Iran has intensified its control over Hormuz, imposing new shipping protocols and collecting tolls, leveraging its position to impact the global economy through disrupted energy flows. The US urgently seeks to restore the strait's pre-war operational status.

The AI Labor Debate: Three Views on the Future of Work

Artificial intelligence's future impact on global labor markets sparks a significant debate, with three primary perspectives emerging: the 'alarmed,' the 'patient,' and the 'excited.' The 'alarmed' predict rapid, widespread white-collar job displacement within a decade, citing accelerating AI capabilities, seamless adoption by employers seeking cost reductions, and insufficient new job creation. This view is supported by recent studies showing AI outperforming humans in complex tasks like coding and legal analysis, and early evidence of employment declines among young workers in AI-exposed fields. Conversely, the 'patient' foresee gradual displacement and complementarity over multiple decades due to technological limitations and adoption barriers. The 'excited' believe AI will generate more new human-centric opportunities than it eliminates, driven by massive economic surplus. The core disputes center on the pace of AI progress versus adoption barriers and the strength of AI-driven job creation. Policymakers must track critical indicators and prepare robust policies, including improved data collection, wage insurance, and applied training programs, to navigate these uncertain scenarios.

Building the AI Workforce: The Math Behind the Pipeline

CSIS  |  Shruti Sharma
The United States' strategic advantage in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is intrinsically linked to its capacity to cultivate a robust and skilled workforce, a challenge quantitatively explored by this analysis. The piece meticulously examines the 'math behind the pipeline,' detailing the critical educational and professional pathways from STEM engagement to advanced AI research and application. It quantifies existing deficiencies in the talent supply chain, including university enrollment in AI-relevant fields, graduation rates, and the retention of top experts within the domestic ecosystem. The analysis further delves into demographic trends, identifies crucial skill gaps, and assesses the impact of global competition on the U.S. AI talent pool. Strategic implications include data-driven recommendations for increased public and private investment in education, incentives for workforce training, and streamlined policies to secure and retain highly skilled AI professionals, vital for maintaining national security and economic leadership.

Who Will Make Money on AI?

Center for a New American Security | Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease
Global competition in artificial intelligence (AI) technology drives significant strategic and economic considerations, particularly concerning which entities—nations, corporations, or specific sectors—are poised to capitalize financially on its development and deployment. An analysis from the Center for a New American Security on this topic would typically explore the implications for national security, economic power shifts, and technological leadership. Key areas of discussion often include the role of government investment, private sector innovation dynamics, intellectual property ownership, and the complex global supply chain for AI components and specialized talent. Understanding the financial incentives and profit centers within the AI ecosystem is crucial for policymakers to formulate effective industrial strategies, foster domestic innovation, and mitigate risks associated with foreign technological dominance. This strategic perspective would delineate potential winners and losers in this evolving technological race, impacting future geopolitical alignments, defense capabilities, and the overall balance of power. Identifying the economic leverage points in AI is essential for maintaining a competitive edge and ensuring long-term national security interests.

How can we best evaluate agentic AI?

On October 14, 2025, a workshop convened experts to address critical gaps in evaluating agentic AI, which operates autonomously, interacts with environments, and pursues open-ended goals, unlike static or narrowly scoped models. Developing a research roadmap for measurement is essential for building evidence-based governance frameworks. Key themes include the lack of a shared definition for “agentic AI,” suggesting an understanding of agency as a spectrum rather than a binary property. Significant measurement challenges exist because agentic systems exhibit stochastic behavior, and their performance cannot be fully characterized by contained benchmarks, necessitating real-world field testing and domain-specific assessments. Challenges inherited from large language model evaluation, such as training data contamination and overfitting to benchmark tasks, are exacerbated. Future research must apply measurement science to AI, simulate human-agent interaction, and evaluate memory-enabled personalized agents, long-horizon tasks, and multi-agent systems for effective governance.

How Ukraine Is Taking the Fight Back to Russia in Crimea

The National Interest  |  David Kirichenko
Ukrainian forces are increasingly challenging Russia's control over Crimea, compelling Moscow to prioritize air defense between its homeland and the occupied peninsula. Russia's 2014 annexation made Crimea a critical base for its full-scale invasion, positioning its degradation as a central strategic objective for Kyiv. Historically, the Kremlin never recognized Crimea as Ukrainian, a stance evident in earlier crises. Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) advocated for aggressive operations in Crimea even before 2022, highlighted by a significant 2016 covert raid. Post-2022, Ukraine intensified efforts, with the October 2022 Kerch Bridge attack marking a turning point. Ukraine consistently targets the bridge and naval assets in Sevastopol Bay, showcasing their vulnerability despite robust defenses. Experts indicate Ukraine will continue to find tactics to penetrate these defenses. By early 2026, Ukraine's actions, including widespread naval drone use, reportedly destroyed or seriously damaged around 30 percent of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, forcing Moscow to relocate key assets from the peninsula. This strategy aims to isolate Crimea and render it an untenable Russian military sanctuary.

Despite Early Missteps, GenAI.mil Could Be a Force Multiplier for the Dept. of War - SOAA

In May 2026, the Department of War announced expanded agreements with major tech firms including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Google, to deploy advanced AI projects on classified networks, despite GenAI.mil's early rollout challenges. The AI tool suite, now used by 1.3 million personnel across five military branches, faced initial confusion and concerns regarding security, inadequate training, and potential autonomous decision-making. Worries intensified over xAI's Grok chatbot's perceived bias and Anthropic's lawsuit after resisting deployment for autonomous lethal warfare or mass surveillance. Conversely, Google's contract explicitly prohibits such uses without human oversight. Operation Epic Fury demonstrated AI's utility in sifting vast data for target identification, highlighting its potential to free personnel and enhance U.S. military supremacy in an increasingly unstable global environment.

AI and the Future of Mediation

CSIS  |  Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, Ian Reynolds
Artificial intelligence holds significant potential to transform conflict mediation, a critical diplomatic function facing increasing demands amidst a rise in the frequency, duration, and complexity of global conflicts. Traditional mediation teams often operate with limited resources, facing constraints in time, personnel, and secure analytical support. Despite these challenges, their core responsibilities remain constant: effectively managing fragmented information, fostering trust among warring parties, monitoring evolving negotiation landscapes, developing confidence-building measures, identifying potential spoilers, and establishing robust verification mechanisms. AI technologies could augment human mediators by processing vast datasets, identifying patterns, and providing real-time insights, thereby enhancing efficiency and strategic foresight in complex peace processes. This integration could streamline information management and improve the design of more effective, data-driven mediation strategies, ultimately contributing to more durable peace agreements in an increasingly volatile world.

Artificial Intelligence in the Australian Defence Forces: Strengthening Denial, Managing Escalation

Asia-Pacific Leadership Network  |  Aina Turillazzi
Australia's defence transformation is actively integrating Artificial Intelligence across surveillance, targeting, command, and logistics systems, particularly under the 2024 National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program. While AI promises to strengthen decision advantage and deterrence, its rapid adoption also introduces new escalation and perception risks in crisis settings. The crucial policy challenge involves ensuring AI systems perform reliably under high-pressure scenarios, rather than merely slowing their deployment. To achieve a more controllable AI-enabled force, four strategic shifts are imperative. These include building “decision advantage with brakes” into AI-enabled decision support systems by mandating a “slow mode” and auditable provenance, treating OneDefence as a prerequisite for higher-risk AI applications to ensure data interoperability, signalling restraint through selective transparency on AI usage principles, and fixing the transition to capability via fast software acquisition pathways, operational pull-through, and a robust people pipeline to ensure technical competence and oversight.

How a surge in defence and dual-use technology investment could reconfigure the global AI race

Chatham House | Katja Bego
A significant increase in investment across defence and dual-use technologies is poised to fundamentally reconfigure the global artificial intelligence (AI) race. This surge, driven by national security imperatives and intense economic competition, will likely accelerate the development and deployment of advanced AI capabilities, particularly in military applications, intelligence gathering, and critical infrastructure. Nations prioritizing strategic autonomy and technological leadership, such as the United States, China, and European powers, are channeling substantial resources into AI research, development, and integration, aiming to secure a competitive edge. This intensified competition could lead to a more fragmented global AI landscape, characterized by distinct technological ecosystems and heightened geopolitical tensions. Furthermore, the dual-use nature of these technologies raises complex questions regarding ethical governance, arms control, and the potential for destabilizing military advantages, necessitating urgent international dialogue on responsible AI development and deployment to mitigate future risks.

Tapping into America’s Distaste for Forever Wars: The Spread of Iranian Narratives on Bluesky

The United States is struggling to counter Iranian propaganda, despite battlefield gains against Iran and its leadership. Iran is effectively competing in the information space through an aggressive, multiplatform disinformation campaign, particularly on Bluesky, targeting American and Western audiences. Analysis by the Futures Lab of over 9,000 Bluesky posts reveals that messages designed to exacerbate public divisions are the highest performing, averaging 150 reposts and 470 likes. Iran's refined playbook, accelerated by AI, aims to erode support for the U.S.-Israeli conflict by raising political costs, mirroring Russian and Chinese disinformation tactics. This strategy has successfully targeted Israel in prior conflicts, as noted by Microsoft. Three core themes underpin Iran’s campaign: portraying its military as victimized yet successful, framing the conflict as an Israeli war of choice, and amplifying U.S. internal divisions. The third theme is positively associated with larger reach. To counter these narratives, the U.S. government should craft visual counter-messaging, establish a labeling regime for state-sponsored posts, and use agentic AI to detect and dismantle propaganda networks.

Iran’s Next Transformation: How War Could Shift Power from Clerics to the Military

Quincy Institute | Abdulwahab Alkebsi
Iran's ongoing war with the United States and Israel presents a third, less-discussed trajectory for its future beyond regime collapse or mere survival: a gradual internal transformation. This shift would see the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the broader military-security establishment emerge as the dominant power center, increasingly constraining the authority of clerical and elected institutions. The Islamic Republic, a complex hybrid of clerical, civilian, and military bodies, has historically relied on ideological foundations for legitimacy. However, sustained conflict inherently elevates coercive institutions like the IRGC, which are best equipped for defense and survival, thereby pivoting domestic legitimacy towards security imperatives. This dynamic could lead Iran towards a military-dominant governance structure akin to Pakistan's "deep state" model, where civilian bodies operate within boundaries set by a powerful security apparatus. Such an outcome would result in a more rigid, security-driven Iranian state, potentially less amenable to diplomatic compromise, even if clerical structures formally remain intact.

Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran

Foreign Policy | Michael Hirsh 
The provided article text, titled 'Why the U.S. Is Headed for a Long War With Iran', unfortunately consists solely of website navigation, cookie consent messages, and a technical error notification, stating 'There appears to be a technical issue with your browser' that prevents the website from loading properly. No substantive strategic analysis or detailed content regarding the U.S.-Iran relationship or the prospects of a long war is available within the provided text. The article's intended discussion on the Tehran regime's hard-line stance, potential nuclear negotiations, or the implications of a Trump presidency, as hinted by the URL, cannot be summarized due to the absence of the actual article body. Therefore, a strategic assessment based on the given input is not feasible.

NPT Briefing Book 2026

The 2026 NPT Briefing Book, released for the upcoming Review Conference, provides a comprehensive reference for diplomats and civil society on nuclear non-proliferation. This updated edition details the NPT's evolution, summarizes past review cycles including the 2022 Review Conference and subsequent PrepComs, and highlights the persistent lack of consensus on substantive outcomes. Key chapters address the NPT's text, the Middle East WMD-Free Zone, and the P5 process, noting its recent inability to issue joint positions. Significant updates to nuclear policies of NPT-recognized states are detailed: France introduced "forward deterrence," Russia lowered its nuclear threshold post-Ukraine, and the UK considered expanding delivery methods. The book also covers the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), its increasing ratifications, and the establishment of a new UN scientific panel on nuclear war's humanitarian impacts. Critically, it documents the complete unravelling of bilateral arms control between Russia and the United States, culminating in the expiration of the New START treaty in February 2026, signaling a challenging future for global nuclear stability.

14 May 2026

Operation Sindoor: Ten strategic lessons for India’s military future

The Times of India  |  Major General Rajan Kochhar Retd
This analysis of 'Operation Sindoor' offers crucial strategic lessons for India's military future, primarily focusing on air power and the nature of modern conflict. It highlights air power's initial effectiveness in securing battle outcomes through precision strikes and force projection. However, the operation also revealed the transient, contested, and resource-intensive reality of air superiority, constrained by factors like aircraft availability and maintenance. The article stresses the need for enhanced resilience, advocating for dispersed basing, hardened shelters, rapid runway repair, and redundant command networks over simply acquiring more platforms. Furthermore, it asserts that even with high-tech precision weaponry and ISR dominance, Operation Sindoor gravitated towards attrition warfare. This suggests that advanced systems redistribute attrition across various domains, including missiles, drones, interceptors, and logistics, rather than eliminating it entirely, a critical insight for India’s strategic planners.

After Iran, Ukraine conflicts: Centre targets homegrown AI systems for defence sector

The Indian Express  |  Soumyarendra Barik, Anil Sasi
India's defence ministry is aggressively pursuing domestically-developed artificial intelligence (AI) systems, motivated by the effective use of AI in operational decision-making during the Iran and Ukraine conflicts. The strategic imperative is to build an "Indian version of Palantir" to reduce reliance on foreign technology, particularly US-made AI models, in critical sectors. Conversations are ongoing with Indian companies like SarvamAI and BharatGen to integrate their AI models into existing defence capabilities. China's rapid integration of AI into military operations, aiming for "intelligentised warfare" through AI-powered battlefield decision-making and autonomous systems, underscores the urgency. While cost and access to high-end computing hardware like GPUs remain challenges, India aims to bridge the technology gap. India has previously deployed AI in its air command and control systems (Operation Sindoor) and predictive tools along the Line of Actual Control. The push reflects a broader strategy to ensure national security through indigenous technological self-reliance, despite US expectations for allies to utilize the 'America AI stack'.

Taiwan is looming over this week's Trump and Xi summit

The escalating confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan, despite being overshadowed by the war in Iran, poses a catastrophic risk of major conflict, potentially nuclear, if not addressed by Presidents Trump and Xi. This danger stems from a mutual erosion of a decades-old understanding that preserved cross-Strait peace, pairing a U.S. "One China policy" with Chinese commitment to peaceful unification. Both Washington and Beijing are weakening these commitments through intensified deterrent signaling and provocative rhetoric. The U.S. has increasingly framed Taiwan as strategically vital, eroding unofficial relations, while Taiwan's pro-independence leadership and Japan's endorsements exacerbate tensions. China has responded by accelerating military preparations near the island, creating an action-reaction cycle that heightens miscalculation risks. During their summit, Trump and Xi must take concrete steps: Xi should publicly state no timeline for unification and reaffirm peaceful processes; Trump should reaffirm U.S. openness to any peaceful resolution. They must establish direct communication channels with Taiwan’s leadership and revive crisis management mechanisms to stabilize relations.

China Sees a ‘Giant With a Limp’ as U.S. Drains Weapons on Iran War

The New York Times  |  David Pierson and Berry Wang
A grinding war in Iran has severely depleted U.S. weapon stockpiles, causing Chinese analysts to question Washington's ability to defend Taiwan. The U.S. has reportedly expended half its long-range stealth cruise missiles and ten times its annual Tomahawk purchases since February, exposing a critical flaw in its war strategy: the inability to rapidly replenish its arsenal during sustained, intense conflict. This perceived weakness shatters America's aura of dominance, with Chinese military experts labeling the U.S. a 'giant with a limp.' This shifting calculus significantly undercuts President Trump’s leverage in an upcoming summit with China’s Xi Jinping, emboldening Beijing's view that the U.S. would struggle against a peer competitor like China if it cannot quickly defeat a regional power like Iran.

Xi’s Forever Purge The Real Goal Behind China’s “Self-Revolution”

Neil Thomas

Since becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi Jinping has carried out stunning assaults on both the Chinese Communist Party and its People’s Liberation Army, purging millions of cadres and even senior leaders who were once thought untouchable. Rooting out corruption was an early focus of Xi’s tenure, but he has intensified the effort in recent years: in 2025, the CCP’s “discipline inspection” authorities filed more than one million cases, an almost sevenfold increase from the year Xi took office. In January, Xi abruptly removed top generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, which hollowed out a Central Military Commission