A Reality Check on the India China Normalisation

The India China Newsletter | Ananth Krishnan

China’s Ministry of Commerce has officially introduced targeted export controls on dual-use industrial machinery, including high-altitude Tunnel Boring Machines and specialized solar manufacturing equipment required by India. This policy action directly restricts strategic infrastructure development along the disputed Line of Actual Control, complicating diplomatic rapprochement following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit visit to India.

Operational standoffs in Arunachal Pradesh persist alongside tit-for-tat diplomatic disputes over official territorial nomenclature for 28 geographical locations in Ladakh. Bilateral trade reached 155.62 billion dollars in 2025. Substantive diplomatic progress remains stalled across confidence-building sectors, as demonstrated by unfulfilled commitments regarding mutual journalist accreditation and tightening visa restrictions imposed by Beijing on Indian tech professionals. While published analysis from the Asia Society Policy Institute highlights Indian commercial advocacy for Chinese supply chains, persistent military friction and unresolved border standoffs continue to constrain the overall normalisation trajectory between both Asian powers.

How Money Moves in Pakistan: Financial Extraction and Hybrid Regime Survival

Brief PK

Pakistan's hybrid political order leverages military-commercial monopolies, systemic provincial treasury diversions, and preferential economic concessions to guarantee elite regime survival and consolidate institutional power. This state-directed financial extraction framework insulates ruling authorities from democratic accountability while systematically warping national fiscal architecture. Through commercial entities like military-run conglomerates, defense institutions absorb public capital and dominate domestic markets, transforming sovereign revenues into private patronage streams.

Extraction overrides reform. Consequently, this structural reliance on off-budget revenue generation erodes federal tax administration, exacerbates sovereign balance-of-payments deficits, and complicates structural adjustment agreements with the International Monetary Fund. Beyond immediate fiscal distortion, the institutionalisation of military economic privileges starves civilian infrastructure projects of capital and shifts economic risk onto the public balance sheet. The ongoing survival of this hybrid political economy prolongs macroeconomic instability, deepens civil-military institutional asymmetry, and increases long-term sovereign default risks across the regional financial ecosystem.

Advanced Persistent Threats to the US Midterm Elections: Coordinated Information Operations by China, Russia, & Iran

EdgeTheory

Chinese, Russian, and Iranian state-aligned influence networks are executing coordinated information operations targeting the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026. These adversarial campaigns exploit ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran to frame American foreign policy as an unsustainable trade-off between overseas military commitments and domestic economic stability.

Using EdgeTheory's Narrative Intelligence platform, analysts identified messaging strategies designed to convert the financial burdens of foreign engagements into direct electoral pressure. Iranian networks focus on military operations against Tehran and rising inflation, while Russian actors highlight military overextension and democratic dysfunction. Simultaneously, Chinese sources amplify themes of institutional decline and economic degradation. Adversaries actively exploit these structural vulnerabilities. Rather than boosting a specific political party, these foreign operations seek to erode public trust in American electoral legitimacy and governance before voting concludes, demonstrating how external security commitments create acute internal vulnerabilities during domestic election cycles.

Moscow And Beijing’s Asymmetric Bargain In The Black Sea And Central Asia – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Tolga Demiryol

Georgia pivoted its deep-water port project at Anaklia to a state-led landlord model in July 2026 following the unannounced withdrawal of a consortium led by China Communications Construction Company. The retreat occurred because the planned commercial terminal sits just 30 kilometres from Russian-occupied Ochamchire, where Moscow is constructing a permanent naval base.

This dynamic reflects an asymmetric bargain wherein Beijing defers to Moscow on Black Sea security while Russia tolerates Chinese trade routes that bypass its territory. Power between the two actors remains unequal. Driven by Western sanctions, Russia relied on China for 27 percent of exports and over a third of imports in 2025. Consequently, Beijing expanded Middle Corridor rail links through the Caspian to secure supply routes without displacing Russian security forces. Western efforts to counter Chinese regional infrastructure face an €18.5 billion requirement against €10 billion pledged. Western strategy should prioritise host-state node control over total commercial exclusion.

The Missing Critical Minerals Investment

Foreign Affairs | Tom Moerenhout, Kevin Brunelli

Western attempts to secure critical mineral supply chains remain vulnerable to Chinese export controls because G-7 funding targets short-term processing rather than early-stage mining infrastructure. Building a new mine requires roughly 20 years. Emerging exploration firms face a structural "valley of death" financing gap when transitioning from initial prospecting to capital-intensive feasibility studies.

Commercial lenders routinely reject these unproven ventures, allowing state-backed Chinese capital to systematically acquire equity stakes in high-potential overseas deposits. Beijing spent a record $32 billion on mining projects via the Belt and Road Initiative in 2025 alone. In 2023, Washington invested just $300 million in African mineral ventures compared to Beijing’s $8 billion to $10 billion outlay. Chinese entities currently control 70 percent of cobalt and copper extraction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Without targeted public equity, Western defense and energy sectors will remain dependent on Chinese-controlled refined inputs.

Japan, Taiwan, China and the emerging 2028 strategic test

Asia Times | Paul N. Goldstein

Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election represents a critical geopolitical inflection point in East Asia that could shape Beijing's strategic calculus more decisively than 2027 People’s Liberation Army modernization milestones. Former CIA analyst Jonathan Czin argues Beijing prioritises political pathways over immediate military action, while former US naval attaché perspectives suggest Washington and Beijing could develop managed coexistence under President Trump.

This structural shift elevates Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s defense posture, which links Taiwan’s security to Japan’s vital trade routes and energy sustainment lines. Kuomintang chair Cheng Li-wun advocates renewed dialogue, encouraging Beijing's expectations of political accommodation. However, Admiral Samuel Paparo warned at the 2025 Honolulu Defense Forum that Chinese maneuvers act as forced reunification rehearsals. Sea lanes remain vulnerable. A fourth consecutive Democratic Progressive Party victory in 2028 may prompt Beijing to initiate prolonged grey-zone pressure, maritime inspections, and transportation disruptions to alter regional order.

A Trump-Putin-Xi Summit? That Might Be Awkward for One of Them.

The New York Times | David Pierson, Berry Wang

China is evaluating a proposal to host a trilateral summit between Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Shenzhen. The potential gathering exposes Beijing to major diplomatic risks regarding European security and strategic arms control. Chinese leaders fear being drawn into great-power bargaining over Ukraine without European or Ukrainian involvement, echoing the 1945 Yalta Conference that compromised Chinese sovereignty.

Beijing also resists US calls for nuclear denuclearization talks, citing its smaller arsenal of roughly 620 warheads compared to over 5,000 each held by Washington and Moscow. Chinese nuclear posture prioritises credible deterrence. However, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies experts suggest narrow progress on technical risk reduction, including crisis communication channels and preserved human control over artificial intelligence in command and control systems. Facilitating these discussions forces Beijing to navigate complex geopolitical trade-offs while avoiding direct ownership of unpredictable diplomatic outcomes.

U.S. Finds Subdued Foreign Meddling Operations in Midterm Elections

The New York Times | Dustin Volz, Julian E. Barnes

United States midterm elections proceeded without major foreign disruption despite the Trump administration downsizing federal election security units across multiple agencies. Intelligence officials and security experts reported that covert influence operations by Russia, Iran, and China remained minimal and achieved negligible voter traction leading up to polling day.

Overseas hackers failed to breach voting infrastructure or manipulate paper ballot backups. Midterm campaigns inherently offer less strategic leverage for adversary intelligence services than presidential races. Moscow deployed artificial intelligence and paid actors in select Senate contests in Texas and Ohio to target Democratic candidates. The Kremlin ultimately prioritised upcoming European electoral cycles. Former Cyber Command chief General Paul Nakasone noted Russian information operations were already pivoting toward France's spring presidential election to target NATO support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Tehran limited its activity to overt propaganda, expecting congressional shifts without direct intervention. Disinformation campaigns yielded minimal impact.

‘Call of Duty’ Has a Message for Hegseth

Foreign Policy | Syrus Solo Jin

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, released in late October 2026, shifts its narrative focus from elite American special operations forces to a conventional South Korean Marine squad. This narrative departure reflects growing public disillusionment with unilateral U.S. militarism and the myth of unfettered special operations capabilities. Historically, the lucrative gaming franchise celebrated unconstrained counterterrorism raids across global flashpoints while insulating civilian audiences from strategic controversies.

Special operations culture faces heightened public scrutiny. High-profile scandals—including drug trafficking allegations involving Delta Force operators, war crimes cases, and illegal betting on the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—have tarnished elite unit reputations. Concurrently, operational strains from ongoing Middle East conflicts and friction over U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s senior officer purges have eroded alliance confidence. By introducing strict compliance with international law and mandatory mission constraints, the game reflects broader geopolitical skepticism toward unchecked military lethality.

The World Cup Is Over. The Drone Threat Isn’t.

RealClearDefense | Mitzi Perdue

United States law enforcement agencies intercepted more than 700 unauthorized unmanned aircraft systems near venues during the FIFA World Cup, preventing potential mass-casualty attacks over crowded stadiums. Security forces neutralized these aerial incursions successfully, yet domestic law enforcement officials warn that soft targets remain intensely vulnerable. Ground security measures such as physical checkpoints cannot address modern three-dimensional threats.

To expand operational capabilities, the SAFER SKIES Act of 2025 provided $500 million in grant funding and established the FBI’s National Counter-UAS Training Center in Huntsville, Alabama. Drones present an immediate, evolving threat. Local police departments now face operational friction as federal, state, and municipal authorities attempt to integrate counter-drone authority across civilian domestic airspaces. Consequently, municipalities lacking trained personnel and clear interagency protocols risk jurisdictional paralysis when responding to uncoordinated low-altitude drone intrusions over public events, leaving regional community venues exposed to unmitigated, asymmetric airborne hazards.

Pentagon Studies Role of AI in New Modeling, Simulation Strategy

National Defense Magazine | Josh Luckenbaugh

The United States Department of Defense has delayed its first Modeling and Simulation Strategy for Engineering in over 30 years to align the policy with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. Announced at the MODSIM World conference in Alexandria, Virginia, the forthcoming strategy restructures modeling and simulation into three core concentrations — engineering, analysis, and training — to decentralize operational decision-making.

High-fidelity simulations must ground machine learning architectures in physics to prevent ungrounded AI outputs during conflict planning. Large language models lack causal models of reality, making verification, validation, and accreditation critical when integrating synthetic environments into military systems. Battlefield lives depend on precision. Combining real-time simulation with DARPA's $250 million artificial intelligence portfolio aims to provide hypothesis-testing arenas for human-machine teaming prior to executing operational plans. As exquisite standalone platforms give way to integrated multi-system capabilities, the Pentagon faces remaining hurdles in breaking down data silos, verifying synthetic models, and navigating intellectual property constraints.

The Army Is Connecting Its Apps. Who Authorizes Their Actions?

Modern War Institute | Burak Oktenli

The US Army awarded initial Next Generation Command and Control (NGC2) application contracts for I Corps in October 2026, transitioning modular software tools into operational field use across intelligence, fires, sustainment, and manoeuvre functions. This software ecosystem builds on the June 2026 common data layer baseline to accelerate decision-making across dispersed tactical command posts.

However, expanding inter-application data sharing creates operational friction when automated software handoffs trigger execution without explicit human authorisation. ADP 6-0 mandates that command authority remains human. Current evaluation procedures executed by the Army Test and Evaluation Command at Project Convergence–Capstone 6 focus heavily on data exchange capability rather than permission boundaries. Without machine-readable authorisation controls, connected software tools risk altering logistics schedules or mission support configurations without commander consent. Army formations require rigorous cross-application handoff testing to ensure rapid operational speed does not subvert commander authority during high-intensity contested operations.

New Halls and Shadows of an Old War

Al Jazeera Center for Studies

United States carrier strike groups centred on USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77), and USS George Washington (CVN-73) are preparing for potential renewed operations against Iran following 2026 combat under Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion. C-17 transport flights have delivered a Patriot air defence battery to Ovda Air Base alongside expanded drone reconnaissance.

Escalating military preparations follow Tehran's rapid recovery of long-range offensive capacity, including underground assembly of Arash suicide drones alongside Shahed-136 systems. The strategic expansion risks triggering a costly war of attrition that could paralyse Middle Eastern energy and civilian infrastructure. Iranian armed forces have intercepted multiple American MQ-9 Reaper and LUCAS unmanned aircraft over the Strait of Hormuz. Friction remains high. Tehran has expanded diplomatic shuttles with Mecca Defense Pact members Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to manage regional risks, while Washington faces mounting political constraints following the November 2026 midterm elections.

Democrats Shouldn’t Squander Their Chance to Launch a Foreign Policy Revolution

Foreign Affairs | Matthew Duss

Incoming Democratic lawmakers in the U.S. Congress must leverage their newly acquired majority powers following the November 2026 elections to defund ongoing American military operations against Iran. Congressional tools—including withholding votes on the National Defense Authorization Act and risking a government shutdown past the 11 December continuing resolution deadline—offer direct leverage against executive unilateralism.

Institutional power remains constrained by deep polarization and entrenched systemic corruption. Public anger over economic inflation and illegal executive warmaking provides unprecedented leverage to force structural legislative changes. Gallup polling highlights that 89 percent of American adults view government corruption as widespread, linking internal political dysfunction directly to external military overreach. Reforming campaign finance mechanisms post-Citizens United and enforcing the Corporate Transparency Act constitute vital domestic prerequisites for coherent foreign policy. Tactical defunding is not enough. Establishing a durable alternative security doctrine requires systematically dismantling executive impunity while simultaneously restoring voter trust through comprehensive anti-corruption mechanisms.

Don’t Soak the Rich

Foreign Affairs | Daniel Waldenstrom

California voters rejected a high-profile state ballot measure proposing a net wealth tax on billionaires in late 2026, marking a turning point in Western legislative debates over concentrated fortunes. The proposal followed decades of warnings from economists claiming extreme income concentration undermines democratic institutions. However, empirical data from the Forbes 400 demonstrates that only 30 individuals—eight percent of U.S.

billionaires—donate over $1 million annually to political campaigns. Institutional guardrails explain the operational variance across democracies. Sweden and Switzerland maintain higher per-capita billionaire density than the United States, registering 4.7 and 5.0 billionaires per million residents respectively, while sustaining top-tier governance index scores. Earlier European experiments with net wealth taxes throughout the 1970s and 1980s distorted business investment, generated minimal fiscal revenue, and triggered widespread policy repeals. Transparent party financing rules, independent administrative agencies, and direct democratic referendums insulate political systems from oligarchic capture far more effectively than punitive tax regimes.

US Voters Care About The Rent, Not The War – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Turki Faisal Al-Rasheed

The 2026 US midterm elections stripped Republicans of congressional majorities as voters overwhelmingly prioritized domestic economic distress over ongoing foreign conflicts like the Iran war. A CNN survey revealed 88 percent of voters cited soaring costs for food, fuel, housing, and healthcare as decisive factors in President Donald Trump’s diminished approval ratings.

Economic hardship drove the outcome. This voter reaction parallels historical midterm shifts in 1946, 1994, and 2006, when inflation, health policy failures, or administrative missteps punished the governing party. While Democratic gains extended to municipal victories across major cities, the election outcome leaves unresolved how effectively a Democratic-led Congress will condition bilateral security arrangements without disrupting foundational defense and energy ties. Although the core Saudi-US strategic partnership in regional defense, intelligence sharing, and energy investments is projected to endure, heightened congressional scrutiny may impose stricter human-rights standards and governance oversight on future bilateral cooperation.

Off The Rails – OpEd

Eurasia Review | Mark Nayler

A high-speed train collision on 28 October 2026 near Toledo killed 69 people, marking the second fatal crash along Spain’s Madrid–Seville corridor in 2026. The tragedy triggered severe political fallout for Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez ahead of the 29 November general election. Official investigators and Transport Minister Óscar Puente attribute the disaster to manual controller misjudgment following an LZB signalling failure.

Conversely, train drivers' unions and opposition figures cite systemic infrastructure neglect. Sixty-nine people died in the collision. Between 2018 and 2022, Spain directed only 16 percent of its high-speed rail expenditure toward maintenance, far below the 34 to 39 percent allocated in France, Germany, and Italy. With the European Rail Traffic Management System deployed across only 10 percent of continental rail networks by late 2024, the disaster demonstrates how deferred infrastructure upkeep on aging high-speed corridors creates fatal systemic vulnerabilities.

The Migration Game And The Streets Of Europe – OpEd

Eurasia Review | Claudio Grass

The investigative documentary Replacing Europe, produced by Muckraker, tracks West African migration corridors through Mauritania, the Canary Islands, and Spain into France and the United Kingdom. It portrays the route as a managed administrative pipeline supported by European Union funding and non-governmental organisations. Catholic charity ACCEM alone received approximately €225 million in 2024 to facilitate arrivals, housing, and monthly allowances.

European migration management directly influences local municipal conditions. This operational infrastructure aligns with severe urban instability across Europe, including French unrest that injured over 1,200 police officers and destroyed the 19th-century Limoges town hall. Mainstream news coverage attributes this violence to energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Civil friction stems primarily from sustained low-skilled immigration straining local housing, public services, and civic safety. Institutional incentives currently reward arrival volumes over border enforcement. Consequently, growing divergence between official policy framing and public infrastructure pressure continues to generate systemic social instability.

Ukraine and Russia say emergency alert apps were hit by hacks

ThePrint | Ron Popeski, Bogdan Kochubey, Jekaterīna Golubkova, Lina Golovnya

Emergency alert mobile applications in Ukraine and Russia were targeted by cyberattacks overnight on 2 November 2026, broadcasting false warnings of impending nuclear, chemical, and hypersonic missile strikes. The compromise coincided with the expiration of a localized six-day ceasefire in southern Ukraine. Ukrainian public safety software issued false Russian-language notifications claiming an imminent launch of an Oreshnik hypersonic missile alongside warnings of radiation hazards and localized street combat in Kyiv.

The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the network intrusion and temporarily suspended the mobile application while traditional warning sirens remained operational. Hours later, Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations reported its own secondary mobile application suffered a massive cyberattack, which the pro-Ukrainian hacking group Atesh subsequently claimed on Telegram. Public warning networks were compromised. Both belligerent governments acted to restore normal application operations while directing citizens exclusively toward verified official government communication channels.

Palantir harvests battlefield data that Ukraine pays for ‘with blood’

Al Jazeera | Federica Marsi

Ukrainian forces are supplying American software developer Palantir Technologies with massive volumes of real-world combat data gathered across four years of war with Russia. This systematic data harvest feeds specialised platforms like the Brave1 Dataroom, launched in January to accelerate military artificial intelligence development. The operational mechanism functions by fusing disparate sensor feeds—including missile telemetry, radar returns, maritime Automatic Identification System tracking, and open-source intelligence—into a single common operational picture.

Good battlefield data is exceptionally rare. By processing raw combat feeds through statistical learning algorithms, the platform identifies tactical patterns to enable split-second automated target recommendations. However, prominent Ukrainian military personnel and international technology researchers warn that sharing unquantified volumes of combat data surrenders strategic leverage to a private foreign corporation. Similar commercial dependencies have already exposed critical vulnerabilities, such as when SpaceX abruptly restricted Starlink satellite access during Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Inside the Operation That Helped Ukraine Turn the Tables

The New York Times | Carlotta Gall, Kamila Hrabchuk

Ukrainian forces under Brig. Gen. Andriy Biletsky’s Third Army Corps launched Operation Vivaldi to reverse Russian advances across eastern Ukraine, recapturing key territory north of Lyman and in Zaporizhzhia. Supported by the 66th Mechanized Brigade, the operation integrated first-person-view drones and armed ground robots to paralyze Russian logistics up to 100 miles behind the front line.

Ukrainian frontline commanders received tactical decision-making authority, allowing rapid local counter-attacks that severed Russian supply lines and isolated frontline positions. This decentralised structure enabled small assault elements to systematically blind Russian reconnaissance units and destroy command infrastructure. Russian forces suffered over 54,000 casualties in a single month while losing critical salients across Donetsk Province. Frontline logistics collapsed under constant drone interdiction. Remote-controlled ground vehicles, fielded by units like NC13, maintained Ukrainian resupply lines through contested kill zones while delivering explosives to enemy bunkers. Ukraine's operational shift demonstrates how technological adaptation and command restructuring can neutralise numerical superiority.

Cognitive Engagement and the Changing Character of Strategic Competition

Cognitive Security Institute | Athena Ives, James Giordano

Converging advances in artificial intelligence, neurocognitive sciences, and big data are expanding adversarial cognitive influence operations across global information networks. Malign actors increasingly exploit emotional vulnerabilities, social divisions, and institutional distrust to alter decision-making without resorting to kinetic force. Existing defense capabilities remain predominantly reactive, focusing on disinformation detection and recovery after malign narratives take root.

To address this temporal limitation, researchers at the National Defense University Center for Strategic Deterrence propose a Cognitive Preparedness Framework structured around seven interdependent domains. These operational pillars span trust, information processing, critical thinking, emotional regulation, media literacy, social identity, and collective efficacy. Pre-emptive cognitive defense is critical. By shifting defensive capabilities left-of-bang, institutions seek to reduce psychological susceptibility prior to adversarial engagement. Translating this conceptual model into validated operational doctrine requires robust empirical metrics, targeted training interventions, and comprehensive institutional integration across contemporary civilian and military defense architectures.

AI Companies Really, Really Want to Buy Your Work Files and Emails

WIRED | Steven Levy

Artificial intelligence developers including OpenAI and Anthropic are spending tens of billions of dollars purchasing private corporate work files, emails, and internal communication archives to train next-generation models. Data brokers like Mercor, Micro1, and Handshake are driving this acquisition boom, offering payments from $350K to $1.8M to monetize proprietary organizational workflows.

Private brokers claim automated scrubbing eliminates personally identifiable details, yet legal experts and labor organizations warn that unstructured workplace files inevitably leak sensitive employee data. Data brokers now drive startup creation. During Spirit Airlines' bankruptcy liquidation, Micro1 submitted a $12.5 million bid for 80,000 email accounts, 500 million internal messages, and 20.6 million SharePoint files, topping Google's $10 million offer before labor objections stalled the sale. While brokers project data acquisition spending to escalate from $40 billion to $50 billion annually toward $1 trillion, workers face systemic risks as their daily operational outputs are harvested to build automated replacements.

Righting the Ship: Building a Relevant US Navy Fleet for Twenty-First-Century Deterrence and Combat

Hudson Institute | Bryan Clark, David Byrd, Dan Patt

The United States Navy faces severe operational and fiscal constraints while seeking to expand its battle force to 381 ships by the 2050s. Despite a proposed fiscal year 2027 shipbuilding budget of $82.3 billion, the largest since the early 1960s, shipbuilders are expanding order books rather than yard infrastructure.

Naval manning deficits reached 20,000 gapped sea billets in 2026. Maintaining the planned traditional fleet would require annual sustaining budgets exceeding $100 billion by 2045. Industrial capacity remains constrained. A proposed alternative fleet architecture replaces heavy surface combatants, including a planned nuclear-powered battleship, with guided missile cruisers, enhanced logistics vessels, and nearly 1,600 robotic and autonomous systems. Supported by more than $4 billion appropriated in 2026 for unmanned systems, this rebalanced force cuts 50,000 sailor positions and relies on tailored operational hedge forces. The restructured model aligns procurement expenditure with real-world shipbuilding capacity while sustaining long-term deterrence across contested maritime operational theaters.

SUPER INTELLIGENCE AND THE DISTANCING EFFECT

War Room | Samuel White

Algorithmic decision-support tools and autonomous strike systems are accelerating military operations toward a flattened predict-act vector, creating a dangerous distancing effect between commanders and warfighting realities. Samuel White demonstrates how this technological shift compresses decision timelines while severing essential human deliberation. Tactically, low-cost autonomous drones and remote sensors isolate warfighters from physical violence, while command post staffs increasingly debate polished synthetic outputs instead of conducting rigorous wargaming.

Speed replaces comprehension. Operationally, predictive software blurs the line between decision support and decision substitution, encouraging commanders to offload moral accountability onto machine models. Strategically, opaque machine-learning black boxes induce cognitive standoff, leaving leaders reliant on statistical predictions without understanding underlying data assumptions. The 2017 Army War College study Closer Than You Think anticipated how autonomous systems transform command dynamics. Rebuilding professional military education is therefore vital to ensure human leaders maintain moral authority, question algorithmic pipelines, and effectively govern integrated human-machine teams.

Russia’s priorities in Afghanistan are counterterrorism and commercial deals. Its larger ambitions on corridors and mediation depend on Chinese approval.

National Interest | Staff Writer

Russian diplomatic and intelligence activity in Central and South Asia has escalated through high-level security visits to Kabul, Islamabad, and Tehran. Moscow aims to contain regional threats from ISIS-K along Tajikistan’s 1,350-kilometre border while expanding economic ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan following formal recognition in July 2025. This security push leverages historical counterterrorism relationships and Moscow's established posture at Tajikistan's 201st military base to secure Central Asia's southern flank.

Commercial trade expanded 150 percent in early 2026. However, severe financial and logistical constraints restrict Russia's broader economic ambitions in the region. The proposed $8.2 billion, 640-kilometre trans-Afghan railway project lacks required capital, while Iran has delayed construction on the critical 160-kilometre Rasht-Astara railway line until late 2026. Furthermore, Russian corridor initiatives remain dependent on Chinese approval and coordination with Beijing's $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Moscow offers actionable intelligence capabilities to regional partners, yet structural bottlenecks and Chinese dominance fundamentally constrain its independent reach across Eurasia.

The Military Is Not The Route To Peace In Myanmar – Analysis

Eurasia Review | Fiona Raval

Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing faced an immediate rejection of his April 2026 peace offer after Ethnic Armed Organisations ignored the 31 July deadline, cementing a complete collapse of regime-led negotiations. This failure underscores deep mistrust stemming from post-2021 military coup violence that has claimed over 100,000 lives and displaced 5.2

million citizens. Decades of centralisation by the Tatmadaw have systematically undermined power-sharing promises originally enshrined in the 1947 Panglong Agreement. Trust evaporated further as regime airstrikes and majoritarian policies violated the 2015 National Ceasefire Agreement. Parallel governance structures now flourish. Non-state ethnic forces maintain autonomous administrations, with the Arakan Army in Rakhine and the United Wa State Army in Shan State controlling key territory. Ongoing regime violence, including 71 civilian deaths in May 2026, makes unmediated dialogue unviable, prompting calls for ASEAN to institute mediated negotiations with strict internal and regional accountability metrics.

China’s defence conglomerates: temporary troubles?

IISS | Lucie Béraud-Sudreau, Meia Nouwens

China’s defence state-owned enterprises NORINCO, CASC, CASIC, and CSGC experienced significant real-term revenue declines between 2019 and 2025 despite Beijing increasing overall defence spending by 32% to USD273 billion in 2026. This unexpected financial contraction threatens to temporarily disrupt arms procurement pipelines for the People’s Liberation Army across critical Indo-Pacific operational sectors.

Structural pricing reforms introduced by the Central Military Commission in 2019 forced state-owned conglomerates into competitive tendering and price inquiries, sharply reducing unit profit margins previously guaranteed under cost-plus contracting models. High-level anti-corruption purges further disrupted contracting. Senior executives across multiple aerospace and electronic warfare firms were purged. Nevertheless, military revenues are projected to recover under the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan covering 2026–30. Expanding defense export access across Asia provides an additional financial buffer as Aviation Industry Corporation of China secures high-profile J-10CE fighter deliveries to Uzbekistan, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.

They Won’t Say It Out Loud, but Asian Leaders Are Happy About the Midterms

Council on Foreign Relations | Joshua Kurlantzick

Following the Democratic Party’s November 2026 sweep of both houses of the U.S. Congress, Asian leaders privately anticipate a stabilization of American foreign policy and a potential wind-down of the war against Iran. Persian Gulf energy disruptions have severely impacted Asian markets dependent on oil and liquefied natural gas imports.

This electoral shift increases political pressure on President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Vice President JD Vance explicitly attributed the Republican defeat to the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Congressional momentum is expected to reinforce military assistance to regional partners, including a pending $14 billion arms package for Taiwan. Asian allies remain relieved. However, executive authority over foreign policy leaves it uncertain whether legislative pressure will force an actual shift in military operations. The incoming Democratic-led legislature will additionally demand stricter export restrictions on Chinese artificial intelligence technologies, setting a tougher legislative line on Beijing.

The United States and its allies need a more coordinated anti-Houthi strategy to counter a Russo-Chinese threat to the region.

The National Interest | Bridget Toomey

Houthi forces in Yemen are conducting sustained missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Red Sea commercial shipping while drawing on expanding multi-state military support. Iran supplies advanced munitions, including anti-ship ballistic missiles and Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile components, alongside operational targeting support. Moscow and Beijing reinforce this axis by delivering satellite intelligence, transferring dual-use tech components, and shielding the group diplomatically at the United Nations.

This external backing enables the insurgent movement to sustain high-intensity maritime and land-based strike operations despite international sanctions. Western responses suffer from fractured coordination. While Washington supplies targeting intelligence and London provides aerial refueling to Riyadh, the absence of a unified command mechanism severely limits coalition counter-measures. Moscow and Beijing actively leverage these operational divides to erode American geopolitical influence across the Middle East. Without a synchronized multinational operational framework, neutralizing Houthi strike networks remains unachievable.