The Limits and Risks of Sino-Russian Military-Technological Cooperation

Michael Magill

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The United States probably cannot break Russia off from China in the military technology sector. But it can recognize that there are tensions between the two, and do its best to grow them.

Technological cooperation between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation has evolved into one of the most consequential strategic alignments shaping international security. Cooperation across ISR (Intelligence Surveillance & Reconnaissance), BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense), and the space domain challenges existing US advantages and demands a shift in US policy.

Once characterized by opportunistic transfers and transactional exchanges, the Sino-Russian partnership since 2014 has matured into a structured, dual-use ecosystem spanning space operations, intelligence and reconnaissance networks, missile warning and air defense systems, and the industrial technologies that enable them. Technological cooperation between the two nations has oscillated between dependence, mistrust, and limited convergence since the Cold War, shaped initially by Soviet assistance to China’s missile and space programs and later by post-Cold War arms and technology transfers. Following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the imposition of Western sanctions, this cooperation shifted from episodic, transactional exchanges to more institutionalized, asymmetric collaboration in dual-use domains, with China emerging as the dominant economic and manufacturing partner.

How Did America Know Where to Find Iran’s Leaders?

Stavros Atlamazoglou

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There is overwhelming evidence that the United States and Israel have thoroughly penetrated Iran’s security services.

On Saturday morning, the conflict that was brewing around Iran for weeks finally exploded. The United States and Israel launched strikes across Iran. This is not the first time the three countries have gone to war in recent months. Last summer, Iran and the US conducted precision strikes against Iran’s military and nuclear facilities. Iran responded with salvoes of missiles and kamikaze drones across the Middle East.

But the scale of the ongoing strikes, as well as the objective of the US—regime change—are unprecedented.

Trump Is Trying Regime Change from the Air

President Donald Trump verified reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the air strikes. Khamenei had been leading Iran’s theocracy since 1989 following the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, the man who overthrew the Shah and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.

This is how Iran plans to endure Trump's war

Tom O'Connor

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Iranian officials are grappling with a grave ultimatum as the country battles an unprecedented joint U.S.-Israeli military intervention that has slain the Islamic Republic’s absolute ruler and scores of senior commanders.

President Donald Trump has offered amnesty to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members who choose to lay down their arms. He has called on Iranian citizens to lead the charge in ousting their government. Despite overwhelming setbacks, however, Iran has yet to indicate any high-profile defections or instances of the kind of mass protests that rocked the nation in January, the deadly crackdowns against which served as the catalyst for Trump’s march toward confrontation with the Islamic Republic.

The Great Game of Oil: Why Iran is about leverage not liberation

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Within seventy-two hours of Operation Epic Fury, the joint US-Israeli strike on Iran, Tehran had retaliated across the entire Persian Gulf. Drones and missiles hit targets in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. QatarEnergy shut down parts of its LNG production, a country responsible for roughly a fifth of global liquefied natural gas production. Tanker operators halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude surged past levels not seen in over a year, with analysts warning of $100 (€86) per barrel if the disruption persists. On social media, the usual commentators are talking about doom and gloom. But before we surrender to panic, it is worth asking a question that very few people seem to be posing: What, precisely, is the strategic purpose of all this?

The oil price movements, dramatic as they are, remain by historical comparison far from existential. Prices had already been hovering around $70 (€60)) to $80 (€69) per barrel for years, with the markets having long priced in significant geopolitical risk since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Even at a hundred dollars, we are nowhere near the shocks of the nineteen-seventies. Painful, certainly. Catastrophic, no. The difference matters, because it tells us something important about how Washington is calculating.

Post-Khamenei turmoil puts China’s energy security at risk

Jeff Pao

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Beijing is now placing energy security at the top of its strategic agenda following the February 28 confirmation of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death.

China now faces a halt, enforced by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a route through which transits a substantial share of its crude imports. The result will be sharply increased shipping risks, inflated insurance premiums and higher costs of oil deliveries to the world’s largest manufacturing economy. A potential change of regime in Tehran also threatens the opaque flow of discounted Iranian crude to China, according to some Chinese commentators.

CNA Explains: How Iran’s Shahed drones are shaping war in the Middle East

Chelsea Ong

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Iran's Shahed drones are playing a major role in its war against the United States and Israel. Tehran unleashed hundreds of missiles and drones across the Middle East following US and Israel strikes on Saturday (Feb 28), underscoring just how central these systems have become to its military playbook.

Some of these drones flew as far as the British Royal Air Force base in Akrotiri, Cyprus, striking the runway - a sign of their extended reach. Already widely used by Russia in the war in Ukraine, Shahed drones are now back in focus amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. In a notable shift, the US has also begun fielding low-cost one-way attack drones modelled after Iranian designs.

The U.S. War on Iran Rattles Energy Markets

Keith Johnson

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Oil prices jumped significantly on Monday, the third day of the U.S. war on Iran, with a roller-coaster rise of between 7 percent and 9 percent in the price of benchmark crude oil, as Tehran widened the war to include targeting energy facilities all around the region.

The only wonder is that oil prices aren’t jumping even higher. What is happening now in the Middle East is exactly the scenario that energy executives, analysts, and traders have fretted about for years.

Observations of Operation Epic Fury

Bill Connor

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On Saturday morning I woke up to learn America and Israel had launched strikes on Iran. This came after around two months of the Iranian regime’s crackdown on its own people, killing tens of thousands. This also came after weeks of negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at stopping Iran from murdering civilian protesters, curtailing Iran’s nuclear program, and limiting Iran’s missile development. These talks broke down a couple of days before operations against Iran were launched and after the U.S. had moved forces into the region. According to those familiar with the talk, Iran would not give up its nuclear program.

From the Central Command press release about “Operation Epic Fury”: “U.S. and partner forces began striking targets at 1:15 am ET to dismantle the Iranian regime’s security apparatus, prioritizing locations that posed an imminent threat. Targets included Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defense capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields…. Operation Epic Fury involves the largest regional concentration of American military firepower in a generation.”

Attacking Iran, U.S. Could Remove an Adversary From Strategic Calculations

Jennifer Parker

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The U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran that began on Saturday is not a limited reprise of last year’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program. The objective now appears broader. Washington appears to be attempting something far more ambitious than its limited strike in June 2025. It is seeking to remove what it views as a persistent source of instability in the region: the regime of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the strikes on his compound.

It is a significant gamble. Whether it succeeds will not be clear for some time.

How did we get here, and what does it mean for Australia? The answer to both is complex. Much will be written in coming days about the 1979 Iranian Revolution, the 1983 bombing of U.S. Marines in Beirut, and the attack on USS Cole in Yemen in 2000. But the more relevant point is what Iran has represented strategically over the past two decades.

What to Watch for in Operation Epic Fury

Gary Anderson

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Before retiring from a teaching position at George Washington University last year, I ended each semester with a war game in which Iranian factions competed with each other to craft a response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program and an American proposal to end the crisis. The three decision-making elites consisted of the Supreme Leader and his Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the executive branch (President, Foreign Ministry, regular security forces, and the rest of the professional bureaucracy).

Over the course of 15 years, there were a number of outcomes, but there was one common thread; survival of each elite group rather than the nuclear program was the primary concern of the players. The graduate students had spent much of the semester researching the motivation and cultures of their assigned group and I think their reactions were well informed. When I retired last spring I knew that I would probably have had to change the scenario if I stuck around for another year. President Trump had made it clear that he intended to disrupt the status quo.

Nepal's long history of political instability

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Nepal was ruled by monarchs from various dynasties, until 1951 when a parliamentary democracy was established. A decade later, King Mahendra suspended the constitution and banned political parties. ​His son, King Birendra, retained full control of the country till 1990, when the absolute ​monarchy was reduced to a constitutional one.

In elections in 1991 and 1999, the centrist ⁠Nepali Congress - the country's oldest political party - won a clear majority required to form the government, but ​did not last its full term either time because of internal and inter-party squabbling. A period of political flux ​followed. King Birendra and eight other royals were killed in a 2001 palace massacre by his son, Crown Prince Dipendra, who later turned the gun on himself, according to an official inquiry.

Russia Struggles to Find a Response to U.S.–Israel Attack on Iran

Pavel K. Baev

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The U.S.–Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which began on February 28, caught Moscow off guard because Russian officials had only anticipated a limited strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Kremlin convened emergency meetings and publicly condemned the attacks, but provided no material support to Tehran.

Despite Iran’s recent entry into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2023 and BRICS in 2024, Moscow avoided invoking these blocs. The crisis may further complicate already stalled U.S.–Russia talks over Ukraine. The Kremlin is chiefly concerned about how this conflict will impact global oil prices. The killing of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also heightens speculation about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s personal security concerns, reinforcing fears of regime change and exposing Russia’s inability to aid key partners.

U.S. Suffers Worst Day of Air Losses in Decades as Iran Conflict Spirals

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The Iran conflict is escalating, with the Trump administration desperate to keep a straight face on things as American casualties and losses begin mounting. Today’s major shock came when not one, not two, but an unprecedented three American F-15E fighter jets were mysteriously shot down over Kuwait. Note the official US military report admits that Iranian aircraft had been engaging them at a time when “air superiority” was allegedly long established:

But not everyone is convinced these were “friendly fire” incidents. Iran announced it had downed the craft, which is at least plausible given that Kuwait is positioned well within reach of long-range S-300s.

Pentagon details cyber, space ‘first mover’ role in Iran operations

Sandra Erwin

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At a March 2 Pentagon news conference alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, described the coordinated campaign as “major combat operations” that remain ongoing, without offering a timeline. President Trump and senior officials have said the strikes are aimed at halting what they characterize as a growing threat from Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

Caine said the operation, led by U.S. Central Command, required tight coordination across air, maritime, cyber and space domains. “The United States, Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force, Space Force, Coast Guard and our reserve components integrated across our combat commands and began coordinated operations with the Israeli armed forces of an unprecedented scale,” he said.

Iran, Israel, and the U.S. Are Racing the Clock

Amos C. Fox

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At first glance, the Israeli-U.S. attack on Iran is an uneven fight. The United States and Israel have overwhelming air superiority, precision-guided munitions, integrated intelligence, and multilayered missile defense systems against Iranian retaliatory strikes. While it’s hard to see a political theory of victory over Iran in this campaign, the operational theory of success is based on precision strikes quickly taking out Iranian air defenses, command and control, and missile launchers.

The attackers do not want to find themselves trapped in an attritional slugfest, where they burn through hundreds of millions of dollars per day, exhaust their stocks of the most advanced interceptors, and face the prospect of a prolonged war—not by losing on the battlefield but by simply exhausting their anti-air weapons in the coming days and weeks.

A rap star might just beat a former PM - what this says about Nepal's Gen Z election

Azadeh Moshiri

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Rap music blared out around us at a campaign rally in the district of Chitwan, in Nepal. Supporters of 35-year-old rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah screamed out lyrics to an AI-generated campaign song which translates to: "Time's up, Fake leaders, Game Over. We'll ring the bell on 5 March."

Crowds of all ages were chanting "Balen", as he's referred to in Nepal. Giant banners of the political newcomer wearing his trademark black sunglasses were mounted across the rally. Balen Shah is running for prime minister after just three years as mayor of the capital, Kathmandu. He is contesting in what's become a key race between Nepal's entrenched political establishment and a new generation of politicians. His party, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), came fourth in the last general election in 2022.

The Gen Z uprising in Asia shows social media is a double-edged sword

Tessa Wong

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What riled him most were claims that a major road was blocked for hours for VIP guests, who reportedly included the Nepalese prime minister.Though the claims were never verified and the politician later denied that his family had misused state resources, Aditya's mind was made up.

It was, he decided, "really unacceptable".

Over the next few months he noticed more posts on social media by politicians and their children - pictures showing exotic holidays, mansions, supercars and designer handbags. One photograph of Saugat Thapa, a provincial minister's son, went viral. It showed an enormous pile of gift boxes from Louis Vuitton, Gucci, Cartier and Christian Louboutin, decorated with fairy lights and Christmas baubles and topped with a Santa hat.

Ukraine to help down Iran’s drones: How Russia’s war rewrote the playbook

Mansur Mirovalev

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Just days earlier, Ukrspecsystems, one of Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturers, opened a factory in the eastern English town of Mildenhall to churn out up to 1,000 unmanned aircraft a month. Ukraine’s former top general and current ambassador to the United Kingdom, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, attended the opening, the BBC reported.

Back in 2022, when Moscow started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, some Western military analysts believed that two ex-Soviet armies would fight each other using obsolete stratagems and weapons. Who would have thought that four years later, China, the United States and Europe would scrutinise the war’s technological and tactical breakthroughs, a combination of unorthodox, hi-tech solutions and jury-rigged fixes that make warfare cheaper and arms manufacturing faster and deadlier?

Why World Powers Have A Major Interest In Keeping Strait Of Hormuz Open

Jonathan Gornall

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As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention is turning once again to the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow, 33-km-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran, through which a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply flows.

During the 12-day war in June last year, when Israel and the US attacked Iranian military and nuclear facilities, the mere suggestion that Iran might try to close the waterway sent oil prices soaring.

And, on Sunday morning, fears that shipping through the globally vital but vulnerable bottleneck was once again in peril were realized when the Oman Maritime Security Centre reported that the Skylight, a Palau-flagged tanker, had been hit some 5 nautical miles north of Musandam’s Khasab port.

It was not immediately clear what had struck the vessel, injuring four crew members. Oman said the 20 crew members, including 15 Indians and five Iranians, had been evacuated safely

Fading into the Background: From Risk Awareness to Technological Intuition

Anna Gielas

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In this latest JSOU report, Anna Gielas describes how sensor-rich environments leverage data fusion and ubiquitous tech to detect Special Operations Forces. The risks are also multidirectional and multi-temporal, with exposure emerging from automated inference, overhead sensing, subsurface vibration detection, and ambient device ecosystems. USSOF teams can reduce exposure by first building a practical mental model of how environments “sense, process, and retain data,” which allows detachments to ask better operational questions about deviations, traces, and signal pathways that they can later leverage to operate within the gaps and seams of contested environments.

Gielas contends that technological intuition (trained judgment rather than instinct) is essential to increasing survivability. A human-centric approach that emphasizes signal literacy and inference awareness is a critical baseline that will save lives in denied environments saturated with adversary sensing.

Terrorist Financing in the Age of Large Language Models

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This research briefing by Jason Blazakis examines how advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) could be exploited to support terrorist financing activity. The report argues that LLMs could act as powerful “force multipliers” by lowering barriers to persuasion, coordination and financial deception and that these technologies risk reshaping the economics of terrorist fundraising by enabling scalable, personalised and culturally tailored appeals at unprecedented speed.

The report assesses how AI-enabled tools could be used for generating fundraising narratives or outreach materials as well as used to help enable assisted fraud, cyber theft and improved concealment of proceeds. It compares how leading LLM providers, including OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, address terrorism and illicit finance within their published policies, highlighting notable differences in regulatory specificity and enforcement approaches. To test whether these policies translate into practice, the author conducted limited baseline prompt testing across the three major LLM models offered by these companies, examining whether they refused overt requests related to terrorist fundraising and money laundering.

Beyond the Battlefield: Threats to the Defense Industrial Base

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In modern warfare, the front lines are no longer confined to the battlefield; they extend directly into the servers and supply chains of the industry that safeguards the nation. Today, the defense sector faces a relentless barrage of cyber operations conducted by state-sponsored actors and criminal groups alike. In recent years, Google Threat Intelligence Group (GTIG) has observed several distinct areas of focus in adversarial targeting of the defense industrial base (DIB). While not exhaustive of all actors and means, some of the more prominent themes in the landscape today include:

Consistent effort has been dedicated to targeting defense entities fielding technologies on the battlefield in the Russia-Ukraine War. As next-generation capabilities are being operationalized in this environment, Russia-nexus threat actors and hacktivists are seeking to compromise defense contractors alongside military assets and systems, with a focus on organizations involved with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). This includes targeting defense companies directly, using themes mimicking their products and systems in intrusions against military organizations and personnel.

India-Canada Relations Reset Following Carney’s India Visit

Dr. Rajaram Panda

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Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney’s four-day visit to India from 26 February to 2 March 2026 was significant mainly for two reasons: resetting bilateral ties that were frayed during his predecessor Justin Trudeau, and deepening ties in a host of areas. The visit provided an opportunity to advance a forward-looking partnership between the two nations. This was Carney’s first visit to India as the Prime Minister.

The primary reason driving Carney’s decision to travel to India was because of pressure from the US President Donald Trump and his protectionist threats and possible tariffs and therefore wanted to reshape Canada’s foreign policy by pivoting India to reduce economic dependence on the US. Deciding to revive ties with India, Carney signed key agreements in energy, minerals, uranium, and artificial intelligence. This shift aligned with Canada’s broader trade diversification strategy as Ottawa sought to double non-US exports amid rising trade tensions in North America. With his visit, the shift marked a significant departure from the strained India-Canada relations seen during the latter years of Trudeau’s tenure. The visit also showed Carney’s resolve to rapidly expand bilateral trade and restore high-level engagement after more than two years of diplomatic chill.

Why the Karachi Siege Shatters the Pakistan-Iran Bargain

Albert Wolf

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Karachi – The durability of a diplomatic “buffer state” is rarely tested by its successes, but by its ability to absorb shocks that its domestic population finds intolerable. For the Pakistani civilian and military establishments, that ability vanished on Sunday afternoon on Karachi’s Mai Kolachi Road. With at least 22 reported fatalities following a breach of the U.S. Consulate, the crisis is being framed by international observers as a predictable spasm of religious fury over the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader. This assessment is dangerously shallow.

To the casual observer, the 560-mile frontier dividing the Balochi nation is a site of constant friction. But realists know that Islamabad and Tehran have long maintained a sophisticated “live and let live” arrangement. It is a pact born of mutual strategic necessity that does not bear any of the formal obligations of an alliance. Both nations are heavily invested in sensitive nuclear and ballistic programs; both recognize that a “hot” western border would invite the kind of international intervention and scrutiny that threatens their respective survival.

What the Afghanistan-Pakistan War Means for Central Asia

Nilofar Sakhi

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Over the past several months, relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have deteriorated to one of their lowest points in years. Escalating border tensions, a surge of militant attacks inside Pakistan, and Islamabad’s ongoing statement that the Afghan Taliban are providing sanctuary and support to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, have brought the two neighbors into direct confrontation.

On February 27, Pakistan launched airstrikes targeting Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia of Afghanistan, the action as a response to a surge in deadly attacks carried out by the TTP inside Pakistan. Pakistan alleges that these attacks, including an attack on a Shia mosque in Islamabad earlier in February, were supported by the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan.

This latest escalation did not emerge suddenly. Rather, it is the culmination of tensions that have been building for several years, particularly since the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul in August 2021.

The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP is rooted in shared ideology, historical cooperation, similar organizational structure, and personal networks forged during decades of conflict. The TTP has often been described as the “Pakistan wing” of the broader Taliban movement.

Taiwan should create drone swarm ‘asymmetric hellscape’ to blunt Chinese invasion: Report

Mike Yeo

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MELBOURNE — Taiwan’s current approach to defense is unlikely to deter Chinese aggression, and it needs a new operational concept that builds mass and provides operational flexibility but yet remain affordable, according to a new report.

In its report, the US-based thinktank Center for a New American Security (CNAS) also calls on the island to create an “asymmetric hellscape” made up of thousands of drones working in concert with more conventional weapons to render an invasion prohibitively costly by focusing on defeating China’s People’s Liberation Army when it is most vulnerable: during its cross-strait transit and when its troops are landing.

The report, titled Hellscape for Taiwan: Rethinking Asymmetric Defense, however also warned that Taiwan still faces hurdles in making this a reality, ranging from lacking the domestic industrial base to produce the drones at scale and institutional problems in its military.

China’s Iran Strategy: A Proxy Laboratory for War with America

Dr.Nadia Helmy

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Following the US-Israeli military attacks on Iran, China is attempting to implement a “regime destruction strategy” in Iran. This strategy relies on understanding US and Israeli military technologies through field data obtained from all the US and Israeli missiles, drones, and fighter jets that participated in directing and launching military operations against Iranian targets. Intelligence, military, defense, and security think tanks in Beijing aim to study the performance of all these Israeli, Western, and American weapons in other conflicts, such as Ukraine, to develop their own defense systems and integrate artificial intelligence into them. This is intended to defend their sovereignty and national security in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and their areas of direct influence. This vision reflects a fundamental shift in the nature of the military and technological alliance between Beijing and Tehran, where cooperation is no longer limited to commercial deals but has transformed into a comprehensive field laboratory on the actual battlefield.

How China Views the US Strikes on Iran

Jianli Yang

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Operation Epic Fury is a reminder to China that its global position depends on overwhelming hard power.

When the United States and Israel struck Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure—and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening phase—the shock waves reached far beyond Tehran. China condemned the campaign as a violation of sovereignty and warned against “regime change.” It evacuated thousands of its nationals. It assessed the risks to oil flows, shipping lanes, and regional investments. And it recalculated.

For China, Operation Epic Fury presents both temptation and danger. In the short term, it offers openings in diplomacy and propaganda. In the medium and long term, it exposes structural vulnerabilities in energy security, technological dependence, and geopolitical positioning. For Washington, the task is not simply to manage the Iranian theater. It is to understand what this moment does to the broader US-China contest—and to act accordingly.

The Power of Innovation: The Strategic Value of China’s High-Tech Drive

Scott Kennedy

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This report argues that China’s advancement across high-tech sectors has directly strengthened the country’s international power and influence, and that other governments need to respond pragmatically to reduce the downside costs and raise the upside opportunities to make the most of these developments. Based on several years of fieldwork and analysis of quantitative data and primary-source documents, the report first evaluates China’s high-tech drive in general and with respect to specific industries. It then analyzes the effect of these developments on China’s military capabilities as well as its role in shaping international technical standards. The study concludes by suggesting that the United States and like-minded countries should pursue a pragmatic strategy, which the report calls “calibrated coupling,” to maximize the opportunities and minimize the risks to themselves of China’s high-tech drive.

We Bombed the Wrong Target

Joe Funderburke

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In the predawn hours of February 28, 2026, Operation Epic Fury began. U.S. and Israeli forces struck targets across Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah, targeting nuclear infrastructure, missile production facilities, and the compound of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The operation followed Operation Midnight Hammer from June 2025 and, as I argued in ‘The Gathering Storm,’ represented not a departure from the maximum pressure strategy but its logical culmination. Trump’s language had been unambiguous for weeks. The carriers were positioned. The F-22s had made their Atlantic transit. The decision, as a source told Iran International, had already been made.

But as smoke rose over Tehran and Iran launched retaliatory ballistic missiles at U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE, killing at least one civilian in Abu Dhabi and striking the Navy’s Fifth Fleet headquarters, a harder question emerged from the rubble: what happens next? The nuclear infrastructure may be damaged or destroyed. Khamenei may be dead or incapacitated. But the IRGC Quds Force is still operational. Hezbollah maintains tens of thousands of active combatants in Lebanon. The Houthis have already announced a resumption of missile and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping. Kataib Hezbollah has pledged to begin attacking U.S. bases across Iraq.

Trump’s Iran Gamble: How the Latest Strikes Risk Opening a Pandora’s Box in the Gulf

Ali Vaez

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For the second time in eight months, the United States and Israel have conducted military strikes in Iran. Last June, Washington’s focus was almost entirely on Iran’s nuclear program, with the U.S. strikes hitting three of the Islamic Republic’s key nuclear facilities, and Israel hitting a wider set of strategic targets, including military commanders, missile launch and production facilities, and nuclear infrastructure.

This time, the United States and Israel conducted a sweeping joint military operation against Iranian leadership and capabilities, and U.S. President Donald Trump has called for “regime change” after Iranian protesters were viciously repressed by their own government early this year. On Saturday, February 28, the U.S. and Israeli militaries struck hundreds of sites across the country and targeted several top leaders, including Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed along with members of his family and key advisers.

Iran Got Trump All Wrong

Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr.

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For decades, Iran managed to bluff American presidents. It deterred attacks from a superpower and carried out proxy campaigns against its neighbors and Israel. Our strikes on Iran on Saturday are evidence that this long-term strategy of negotiating in bad faith is bankrupt. The military campaign underway is the direct result of Iranian leaders’ foot-dragging, obfuscation and delay tactics.

This time, they misjudged the president.

The path to today began in 2020, when President Trump made the decision to strike then Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, an Iranian military leader who masterminded attacks against American people and facilities in the Middle East. Since his death, Iran has been unable to recover the coherence and purpose of General Suleimani’s proxy operations. Equally important, the strike established Mr. Trump’s credentials as someone who would not be in thrall to Iran. The president is the unique advantage we have in the region. For the first time in decades, American military power in the Middle East deployed against Iran is coupled with a commander in chief who isn’t afraid to use it.

Retired Vice Admiral gives military perspective on US-Israel attacks on Iran

Mary Louise Kelly

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MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

All right, staying with the Iran news, we wanted to get a military perspective on today's events. And for that, we have called Robert Harward, retired vice admiral, former U.S. Navy Seal, also former deputy CENTCOM commander - U.S. Central Command. He's now a member of the Iran Policy Project at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. Admiral Harward, thank you for joining us.

ROBERT HARWARD: Good to be with you, Mary Louise.

KELLY: Now, we have reached you tonight in Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE. Iran launched a retaliatory strike there earlier today. The UAE says at least one person was killed by shrapnel. So let me begin by asking, were you able to see anything, hear anything where you are?

The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran | CSIS

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In “The Regional Reverberations of the U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran” (CSIS, March 2026), the Director and Senior Advisor of CSIS’s Middle East Program, Mona Yacoubian, examines the immediate and long-term consequences of joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. The critical questions posed by Yacoubian explore the “prospects for a wider regional conflict with global reverberations.”

Q1: What are the regional repercussions of the strikes on Iran?

Soon after the joint strikes, Iran launched a series of retaliatory missile and drone strikes across the region… Iran also opted to go after U.S. military and Gulf civilian targets across several countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar… Jordan and Iraq also reported intercepting Iranian missiles, and Oman’s port at Duqm was hit by an Iranian drone strike…

U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iran: Preliminary Assessment

Christopher Zambakari

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The joint U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran announced Saturday, February 28, 2026, represent a dangerous escalation in Middle Eastern tensions—one rooted in strategic miscalculation and contradicted by America’s own intelligence assessments. The military campaign aims to topple Iran’s ruling leadership, dismantle its missile and naval capabilities, and encourage popular uprising following the strikes.

Initial reports from regional and international media indicate sharp escalation following the coordinated strikes. Iranian retaliation has reportedly targeted U.S. interests and allied positions across the Middle East. A representative from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported Saturday that ships in the region are receiving radio communications declaring a prohibition on all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.

President Trump framed these “major combat operations” as necessary to counter an imminent Iranian missile threat to the American homeland. Yet according to multiple sources familiar with classified intelligence, this claim lacks evidentiary support. A 2025 unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency assessment states that Iran could develop a “militarily-viable” intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035—and only “should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.” Current intelligence indicates no active Iranian ICBM program targeting the United States.