What Are the Implications of the Mecca Pact for India?

The Diplomat  |  Shanthie Mariet D’Souza

Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7, 2026, establishing a trilateral collective deterrence mechanism that integrates a Gulf Cooperation Council member, a NATO state, and an Islamic nuclear power. New Delhi responded with quiet concern through its Ministry of External Affairs, whose official reaction confirmed that India is examining national security and regional stability implications.

While several observers have dismissed the agreement as symbolic optics, the pact provides Islamabad with a significant diplomatic lever in the Middle East. The development directly complicates Indian strategic interests across the Gulf, where 8.8 million Indian nationals reside and GCC trade constitutes 15.4 percent of total national commerce. Following a bilateral accord where India signed a free trade agreement in February, New Delhi faces mounting pressure to recalibrate its regional security posture as tracked by the Global Firepower Index (GFI) 2026.

India’s Cockroach Janta Party protests: will it produce long-term change?

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Gabriel Mueller

India’s Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned on 25 July 2026 following nationwide youth protests led by the Cockroach Janta Party. Sparked by the cancellation of the 12 May National Eligibility cum Entrance Test due to paper leaks, the movement forced the first cabinet resignation of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s 12-year tenure.

This political concession highlights deep structural friction in India's labor market, where graduate unemployment reached 14.5% in 2025–26 despite official targets to double higher-education enrollment by 2035. Mobilized by postgraduate student Abhijeet Dipke and amplified by activist Sonam Wangchuk, the digital-first campaign sustained mass demonstrations in New Delhi despite security crackdowns, metro closures, and internet suspensions. Although Pralhad Joshi subsequently assumed the education portfolio and Modi pledged expanded artificial intelligence training, underlying structural shortfalls in white-collar job creation will keep youth agitation a primary risk vector leading toward the 2029 general elections.

25 years later: The state of Al Qaeda

Long War Journal  |  Bill Roggio, Will Selber

Al Qaeda continues to spark intense debate twenty-five years after the September 11 attacks regarding whether the terrorist network represents a spent force or a resurgent global threat. Generation Jihad hosts Bill Roggio and Will Selber, joined by The Atlantic staff writer Graeme Wood, analyzed the movement's long-term strategic objectives and evolving organizational structure on August 20, 2026.

Mounting intelligence evidence highlights the entity's expanding operational footprint inside Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, raising severe security concerns for regional and international actors. Analysts evaluated the increasingly blurred operational boundary between central Al Qaeda leadership and its autonomous regional affiliates, which significantly complicates western counterterrorism tracking mechanisms. Furthermore, the emergence of Syria's new president—a former senior Al Qaeda commander—underscores an ongoing strategic debate over whether transnational jihadist organizations are undergoing structural decline or pragmatic evolution within the broader campaign. Ultimately, assessing these institutional dynamics remains critical for forecasting future transnational terrorism risks and international security responses.

In Afghanistan, Growing Resistance Meets Fears of Pakistani Influence

The Diplomat  |  Natiq Malikzada

Five years after the Taliban's return to power in Afghanistan, anti-Taliban opposition factions including the National Resistance Front and Sipahiyan-i-Mihan are expanding organized armed resistance while facing mounting pressures from Pakistani military influence and cross-border operations. Strategic tensions have intensified as Islamabad conducts air strikes inside Afghan territory to target militant sanctuaries, complicating the regional security environment and straining bilateral relations with the Taliban regime in Kabul.

Meanwhile, civil society groups and anti-Taliban insurgents express deep concern that Pakistan's intelligence apparatus is shaping Afghan political dynamics while attempting to neutralize borderland security threats. The convergence of expanding domestic insurgency, cross-border military strikes, and external political manipulation underscores the fragile security landscape across South Asia. As active resistance against the Taliban government accelerates, opposition forces must simultaneously navigate internal operational challenges and counter persistent foreign interventions aimed at controlling Afghanistan's strategic trajectory and border stability.

Why Has Pakistan’s Jailed Former PM Imran Khan Been Shifted to Hospital Now?

The Diplomat  |  Umair Jamal

Pakistan’s Supreme Court on August 18 ordered the government to transfer imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan to Shifa International Hospital in Islamabad for specialized medical treatment. The 73-year-old Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf founder has been detained since August 2023 following corruption convictions after his 2022 removal from office. This judicial directive follows months of legal petitions citing Khan's fluctuating blood pressure, cardiac issues, and an eye condition affecting his vision.

Lower courts, including the Islamabad High Court, had repeatedly rejected or delayed similar hospitalization requests since February. The sudden intervention by the top court indicates a broader political recalculation by Pakistani authorities rather than a purely independent legal ruling. Facing mounting political volatility, the government and military establishment appear focused on lowering civil tensions and opening limited channels of dialogue. Relocating Khan aims to mitigate the immense geopolitical and domestic fallout that would accompany a severe deterioration of his health while in state custody.

Resistance to Taliban rule persists in Afghanistan

Long War Journal  |  Will Selber

Anti-Taliban resistance groups in Afghanistan, led by the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, are expanding guerrilla operations across key provinces including Kabul, Herat, and Kandahar as the regime enters its sixth year. Operating without external state sponsorship or territorial sanctuaries, these insurgent factions—recently joined by the Afghan Green Trend and the Afghan United Front—have executed thousands of targeted strikes against Taliban security forces and infrastructure.

This sustained asymmetrical campaign highlights persistent domestic security vulnerabilities across all 34 provinces despite the Taliban’s consolidated political control and attempts to gain international recognition. Furthermore, worsening cross-border clashes with Pakistan and ongoing combat against Islamic State Khorasan Province force Taliban security forces to manage multiple operational fronts. Without unified political command, external aid, or held territory, the resistance remains a persistent security threat rather than an immediate existential hazard to Taliban rule.

Pakistan’s Defence Forces Act Puts Military Power in One Hand

Substack

Pakistan's National Assembly passed the Defence Forces Act 2026 on August 20, consolidating operational command of all armed forces, personnel management, and nuclear oversight beneath a single military office. The legislation retrospectively legalises decisions taken since November 13, 2025, effectively concentrating inter-service authority within the Chief of Defence Forces (CDF), who simultaneously serves as Chief of Army Staff.

By replacing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) under amendments to the National Command Authority Act 2010, the statutory framework eliminates secondary institutional checks across the tri-services command structure. This consolidation systematically bypasses constitutional provisions under Article 243 that previously established formal civilian supremacy over the defense establishment. Furthermore, explicit ouster clauses insulate military appointments and strategic command restructurings from judicial review by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The retroactive enactment validates nine months of unlegislated command decisions, solidifying an unreviewable executive military authority that permanently reshapes the civil-military balance and institutional governance across Pakistan's national security architecture.

How Myanmar’s SMEs Are Coping With An Economy Of Uncertainty

Eurasia Review  |  Hsu Latt Phyu

Myanmar’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are deploying survival-driven adaptation strategies to navigate severe post-2021 coup economic deterioration marked by 24.6 percent inflation in April 2026, currency depreciation, and systemic infrastructure collapses. Facing daily power outages and intense foreign exchange controls, civilian businesses are shifting away from growth to preserve core operations.

Prolonged political instability following the military takeover, coupled with labor shortages from mandatory military service and external Middle East fuel supply shocks, has severely compromised national productivity. To maintain continuity, 42 percent of firm electricity consumption relied on diesel generators and off-grid solar systems by October 2025, alongside informal financing networks and migration to digital platforms like Telegram, Viber, and TikTok. While these pragmatic adaptation measures prevent immediate operational collapse, long-term economic sustainability requires targeted infrastructure support, credit access, and international sanction recalibration to prevent systemic civilian enterprise erosion across the country.

Beijing Signals Tiered Governance of Open-Weight Models

Substack | Sunny Cheung & Shijie Wang

Beijing is converging on a tiered governance framework for open-weight artificial intelligence models to balance technological expansion against national security risks. The strategy directly offsets China's severe compute deficit, which leaves the country roughly two years behind the United States, by leveraging global open-source developers to optimize software for domestic hardware.

This approach allows the state to bypass American export controls while expanding geopolitical influence across the Global South through the World AI Cooperation Organization. Furthermore, open weights permit Chinese military, financial, and government entities to run models offline on classified data without foreign dependence. Under the emerging regulatory system, basic capabilities will be released freely, frontier models will face security reviews, and sensitive weights will remain restricted to domestic use. Ultimately, distributing functional weights establishes Chinese technical standards globally, insulating the nation's digital ecosystem from potential Western sanctions or service disruptions.

Space Cowboys and Cyber Pirates, Part I

Center for International Maritime Security  |  Christopher Rice

Commercial space infrastructure and military space operations are increasingly converging, with the United States Department of War purchasing 80 percent of its satellite communication bandwidth from private commercial providers. This deep integration blurs civil and defense distinctions, creating high-value targets for revisionist adversaries seeking to disrupt American network capabilities.

Modern government dependencies trace back to federal investment shifts following the 1986 Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, which spurred reliance on private firms like SpaceX and its Falcon 9 launch platform. Observing coalition network dominance during Operation Desert Storm, the Chinese military integrated five operational counter-space concepts—including space blockades, direct strike operations, and cyber-attacks—to target orbital systems, positioning mobile laser capabilities, and ground stations. Coupled with kinetic anti-satellite tests and orbital rendezvous operations conducted by China and Russia, non-kinetic cyber warfare presents low-cost, reversible options to blind military command structures prior to overt conflict.

Beijing Resumes Demolition Of Major Tibetan Buddhist Academy

Eurasia Review  |  Noh Jung Min, Dickey Kundol

Chinese authorities expanded the demolition of residential quarters at Sichuan’s Larung Gar Buddhist Academy on July 13, 2026, targeting at least 1,060 residences belonging to Tibetan monks and nuns. Satellite imagery from August 14 confirms the clearance of approximately 2.5 acres across central residential areas using excavators and dump trucks, continuing a multi-decade campaign that has halved the institute's physical size.

Originally established in 1980 to revive Buddhist scholarship, the academy previously hosted over 40,000 monastics before facing mass expulsions and structural dismantlement under Beijing’s administrative directives. Accompanying physical demolitions, local security bureaus implemented heightened surveillance measures in Serthar county, forcing visitors to rent 200-yuan tracking devices, adhere to 90-minute time limits, and travel solely via state-managed shuttles. This coordinated campaign follows the July 1 implementation of China’s Ethnic Unity and Progress Law, which codifies coercive assimilation policies intended to systematically alter Tibetan identity and restrict independent religious institutions.

The U.S. banned Nvidia's best chips from going to China. Now it's trying to close a crucial loophole

CNBC

Chinese artificial intelligence developers are leveraging data centers in Southeast Asia to access Nvidia Corporation's restricted GB300 semiconductors via cloud networks, bypassing existing American export restrictions. Following Moonshot AI's deployment of its Kimi K3 model utilizing Thai-hosted compute infrastructure, U.S. officials identified remote access as a major regulatory vulnerability.

While current regulations restrict physical shipments of advanced hardware to Beijing, overseas cloud providers allow entities like ByteDance and Tencent to train frontier capabilities in Malaysia and Thailand. In response, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Remote Access Security Act, which seeks to grant executive authority over remote software and hardware access. However, the legislation awaits Senate approval and faces industry pushback regarding know-your-customer compliance requirements. As regional data center capacity expands toward a projected global total of 200 gigawatts by 2030, the Bureau of Industry and Security faces enforcement hurdles establishing effective remote compute rules.

As Baghdad tries to please Trump, Iran tells Iraqi militias not to disarm

Responsible Statecraft  |  Elfadil Ibrahim

Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani secretly met with Iraqi militia leaders in Baghdad to urge them to retain their arsenals, directly countering Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's September 30 disarmament deadline. This deadline coincides with the scheduled withdrawal of remaining United States military forces from Iraqi bases.

The political standoff emerges as Washington exerts diplomatic pressure through special envoy Tom Barrack, who has vetoed candidates for Iraq’s defense and interior ministries to isolate factions aligned with former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki. Simultaneously, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has slashed Iraqi oil revenues by two-thirds, forcing Baghdad to ship discounted crude via Abu Dhabi’s state oil firm ADNOC. To evade disarmament, Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf proposed concealing heavy weaponry or moving it to Iran. While Asaib Ahl al-Haq conducted symbolic scrap handovers, groups like Kataib Hezbollah refuse disarmament following United States air strikes.

U.S. conducting stealth operation to transport oil through Hormuz

Axios | Barak Ravid

The United States military has established a stealth shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing a southern maritime channel along Oman's coast to export roughly 10 million barrels of oil daily. Coordinated by a specialized task force out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the night-time operation manages structured convoys of 15 to 20 tankers to mitigate severe global energy disruptions caused by regional conflict.

This maritime transit pipeline relies on a preceding two-week U.S. Central Command strike campaign that degraded Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) radar and maritime surveillance capabilities across the Gulf. Although Iranian forces maintain limited visibility via fast-boat spotters and residual radar, U.S. Air Force fighter jets actively intercept incoming air threats, recently downing eight Iranian drones and two cruise missiles. Despite ongoing tactical engagements in the narrow waterway, daily petroleum exports now reach near half of pre-war volumes, stabilizing global energy markets without formal diplomatic negotiations.

America and Iran: 73 Years of Undermining Democracy

E-International Relations  |  Mojtaba Mahdavi

The United States and Israel launched major military campaigns against Iran in June 2025 and February 2026, striking nuclear infrastructure, assassinating senior leadership, and devastating critical economic sectors alongside civil infrastructure in Minab where 168 schoolgirls were killed. These kinetic strikes mark the culmination of a seventy-three-year American posture toward Tehran that repeatedly undermined domestic democratic prospects through military coercion, economic sanctions, and strategic containment.

Originating with the 1953 Anglo-American overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh, Washington prioritized regional stability, oil flows, and Israeli security over popular sovereignty, supporting authoritarian rule under the Shah and subsequently penalizing Iranian civil society. Unilateral American withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018 further crippled moderate political factions while empowering hardline domestic elements. Broad economic blockades and direct external aggression ultimately impede internal reform, proving that foreign military intervention and regime-change doctrines suppress democratic civil movements rather than enabling self-determination.

Trust the Signal, Doubt the Position

RealClearDefense  |  Burak Oktenli

The United States Department of Defense allocated $43 million through its latest APFIT awards on July 14, 2026, for Assured Position, Navigation, and Timing devices alongside $11.24 million for uncrewed aerial systems navigation to combat adversarial electronic jamming. These investments address signal authentication, but signal verification alone does not guarantee continuous position integrity for autonomous platforms in contested environments.

Tactical systems require real-time integrity assessments because receiver authentication occurs periodically while navigation calculations and operational decisions occur continuously. Recent disruptions to Europe’s Galileo satellite network demonstrate that authenticated signals can still yield unverified or degraded navigation solutions during ongoing operations. To prevent autonomous weapons from relying on stale or inaccurate positioning data, future procurement specifications must mandate continuous integrity reporting, clear error thresholds, and enforced degraded operational modes. The Air Force Life Cycle Management Center's centralization of military GPS programs provides an opportunity to enforce these end-to-end resilience requirements across integrated defense systems.

Picking up the PACE: EW battlefield demands updated contingency planning

Breaking Defense  |  Kyle Rempfer, Mark Pomerleau

United States Army I Corps commander Lt. Gen. Matthew McFarlane announced at TechNet Augusta 2026 that traditional linear contingency communications models are obsolete against concurrent multi-band electronic warfare. To survive peer adversary signal detection and high-tech jamming, military commanders are transitioning toward diversified command and control architectures.

This operational shift abandons sequential primary, alternate, contingency, and emergency protocols in favour of dynamic, self-healing communication layers that obscure signal signatures. The new approach integrates commercial infrastructure, low-power mobile ad-hoc networks, decentralized tactical radios, and Low-Earth Orbit constellations like Starlink. By fragmenting, encrypting, and routing data simultaneously across multiple physical mediums, the polymorphic mesh prevents single points of failure without relying on fixed command posts or vulnerable geographic chokepoints. Ultimately, these resilient networking capabilities aim to preserve operational command and control during high-intensity conflict where any electromagnetic emission exposes unit locations to immediate strike.

Compass Points - Wargame Perils?

Marine Corps Compass Points

The Marine Corps University has invested an estimated $100 million into the General Robert B. Neller Center for Wargaming and Analysis at Quantico, yet the facility sits largely vacant due to reported software failures with BAE Systems' Pioneer platform. This technological breakdown undermines the institution's plan to make the facility the premier venue for US military wargaming.

Simultaneously, the university is facing internal criticism for stripping the study of military history from its core curriculum to prioritize wargaming exercises. Military educational experts, including retired Colonel Eric M. Walters, caution that algorithmic wargames cannot replace foundational historical instruction and critical reflection on past conflicts. MCU’s dual missteps—relying on non-functional software while defenestrating historical study—threaten to leave future Marine Corps leaders unprepared for operational decision-making. Observers emphasize that effective officer development requires combining rigorous wargaming with comprehensive military history, ensuring command climate and tactical judgment remain grounded in historical combat realities.

What Trump’s tech strategy means for the military, deterring China, and the future of AI

Defense One | Patrick Tucker

The White House released a technology strategy prioritizing autonomous drone swarms, commercial acquisition flexibilities, and expanded export pathways for defense startups to enhance deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific. By encouraging Other Transaction Authorities alongside streamlined Cooperative Research and Development Agreements, the framework aims to accelerate fielding low-cost attritable systems beyond the Pentagon’s $1 billion Replicator program.

However, institutional backing for energy-intensive foundation models favors a centralized cloud compute paradigm backed by major commercial technology firms over open-weight alternatives. This reliance on closed-weight architectures introduces operational vulnerabilities for tactical units operating in bandwidth-denied environments where troops can’t count on the connectivity required for cloud-hosted artificial intelligence. Operational evidence from Ukraine indicates forward-deployed compute nodes face severe bandwidth strain when integrating centralized algorithms for target acquisition. Analysts at Just Security and Carnegie Endowment warn that excluding edge-efficient, open-weight software could cede tactical agility to Chinese developers.

Is Putin’s ‘Caspian Express’ A New Lifeline Between Russia And Iran?

Eurasia Review  |  Alex Raufoglu

Russia and Iran are expanding military-related logistical traffic through the landlocked Caspian Sea to bypass Western maritime interdiction and international sanctions. Confirmed by Western intelligence reports, Moscow has initiated maritime shipments of military equipment through ports such as Olya and Astrakhan to assist Tehran following six months of conflict involving the United States and Israel.

This bilateral maritime corridor leverages a closed inland body of water inaccessible to the U.S. Navy, providing a secure bulk-transport alternative to vulnerable open-sea lanes. While Iran previously supplied Shahed loitering munitions and technical infrastructure to Russian forces in Ukraine, Moscow is now utilizing the same route to replenish Iranian military stockpiles. However, the operational security of this protected artery faces emerging vulnerabilities as Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities reach northern Caspian infrastructure, demonstrated by a recent attack on an Iranian commercial vessel near Dagestan. Consequently, both nations are monitoring whether these wartime supply arrangements will solidify into permanent logistical infrastructure.

Russia helps Iran sharpen its sword

FDD's Long War Journal  |  John Hardie

Russia is supplying TNT explosive material, ammunition, and drone components to Iran across the Caspian Sea using sanctioned Russian shipping firm MG-FLOT to replenish military arsenals depleted during fighting with the United States and Israel. Delivered directly to Amirabad port in northern Iran via more than two dozen commercial vessels, these critical military cargoes enable Tehran to assemble warheads for ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones.

This maritime resupply channel deepens reciprocal security ties established when Iran exported Shahed-136 loitering munitions for Russian operations in Ukraine. Beyond raw energetic materials, Moscow provides targeting intelligence against American military installations, operational electronic warfare advice, and "Kometa" controlled reception pattern antennas to shield navigation systems against electronic countermeasures. These resupply efforts cost Moscow minimal capital while effectively tying down United States forces and consuming strategic stocks of air defense interceptors, including Patriot missiles urgently required for operational theaters elsewhere.

Make No Mistake, Hamas Is Still the Spoiler in Gaza

National Interest  |  Ariel Cohen

Jared Kushner met with Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo to advance the Board of Peace’s 15-point roadmap for Gaza, demanding disarmament and governance transfer to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza. Israel insists on full, verified disarmament before executing any military withdrawal, while foreign ministers from eight Muslim-majority nations blamed Israel for obstructing UN Security Council Resolution 2803.

This diplomatic deadlock directly intersects with domestic politics ahead of Israel’s October 27 elections and the Palestinian Authority’s scheduled November elections. Hamas continues to exploit structural delays, refusing to sign the Palestinian Liberation Organization's national program recognizing Israel. Consequently, the unresolved conflict complicates the broader American strategy against Iran, holding Saudi-Israeli normalization hostage and preventing regional alignment. Achieving long-term stability requires intrusive international verification through an International Stabilization Force rather than relying on unverified diplomatic assurances from Hamas leaders.

Three Ways AI Will Change the Course of Humanity

Project Syndicate  |  Dambisa Moyo

Artificial intelligence technology is rapidly expanding beyond traditional concerns over workforce displacement and productivity gains to fundamentally redefine the historic drivers of human civilization: disease management, warfare, and economic growth. By drastically reducing operational costs while simultaneously increasing the availability and efficiency of critical goods and services, emerging machine learning systems are altering the baseline terms of global existence.

This transformation shifts artificial intelligence from a mere commercial software tool into a core strategic asset with direct implications for international power dynamics. In the military domain, autonomous platforms and algorithmic decision-making tools accelerate combat speeds and operational execution, disrupting established tactical doctrines and force structures. Concurrently, AI-driven breakthroughs in medical research and economic modeling threaten to widen existing capability gaps between technologically advanced states and developing economies. As these dual-use technologies proliferate, nations face profound security and economic realignments driven by differential rates of AI integration across public and private sectors.

a client-side exception has occurred

BBC | Daniela Relph

The BBC web domain at click.email.bbc.com encountered a critical client-side application error, halting page load operations and preventing content retrieval across user devices. The unexpected script exception triggered a system-level failure message, advising technical operators and end-users to inspect browser console diagnostic logs for further debugging details. This disruption highlights recurring vulnerabilities in modern web application rendering pipelines, where front-end dependencies and client-side JavaScript execution failures can entirely sever access to underlying digital infrastructure.

Operational reliance on complex client-side frameworks introduces failure points that impair web traffic routing, email link resolution, and digital distribution networks. When critical links hosted on institutional domains like click.email.bbc.com fail to resolve, secondary impacts emerge across corporate communication channels, information delivery pipelines, and user verification workflows. Maintaining robust fallback mechanisms and server-side rendering redundancy remains essential to prevent widespread access bottlenecks across high-traffic media domains and public infrastructure networks.

An Explosive Problem: Energetics, Supply Chain Fragility, and US Military Readiness

Modern War Institute  |  Morgan Bazilian, Matt Isler

Holston Ordnance Works in Kingsport, Tennessee remains the sole domestic manufacturer of RDX explosive filler for the United States military, leaving American precision munitions stockpiles vulnerable to severe supply chain bottlenecks. RDX detonates at nearly 8,750 meters per second, but domestic production depends on global precursor chemicals like acetic anhydride and hexamine, which are increasingly dominated by Chinese chemical manufacturing.

To address these vulnerabilities, the US Army funded a $903 million modernized explosives center at Blue Grass Army Depot aimed for 2031 operation and attempted to double Holston's output by July 2028. However, broader manufacturing failures continue to hamper surge capacity; a $469 million plant in Mesquite, Texas failed to produce usable projectile bodies, leaving 155-millimeter shell output at just 36,000 rounds monthly against a 100,000-round target. Concurrently, Russia expanded RDX capacity at its Biysk Oleum facility in Siberia to 6,000 metric tons annually, highlighting how adversary chemical bases set theater-level limits on wartime sustainability.

India and the Rebalancing of Asia

Foreign Policy | C. Raja Mohan

India continues its strategic pursuit to rebalance the Asian security architecture while confronting substantial domestic and external obstacles on its path toward great-power status. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration seeks to navigate intensifying United States-China competition across the Indo-Pacific region by leveraging multi-alignment and diplomatic partnerships. Historically, New Delhi maintained strategic autonomy to safeguard its continental borders and regional influence without binding itself to formal military alliances.

However, Beijing's expanding military footprint along the Line of Actual Control and assertive maritime presence in the Indian Ocean have compelled Indian strategic planners to deepen security cooperation with Western partners, including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Despite these strategic partnerships, economic constraints, defense industrial limitations, and regional instability in South Asia continue to impede India's long-term strategic projection. Moving forward, New Delhi must continuously recalibrate its economic posture and defense modernisation efforts to balance Chinese regional dominance while maintaining independent decision-making authority.

From Backbone To Beast: The Super Sukhoi Transformation

Eurasia Review  |  Girish Linganna

India plans an estimated $8 billion mid-life upgrade for its initial fleet of 84 Su-30MKI multirole fighters, transforming over 200 aircraft into the "Super Sukhoi" standard to maintain theater air dominance. The Indian Air Force intends to equip these twin-engine jets with DRDO's Gallium Nitride-based Virupaksha AESA radar, boosting target detection ranges beyond 300 kilometers against standard fighters.

This technological modernization bridges a critical operational gap while next-generation platforms like the Tejas Mk2 and Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft mature. The upgraded architecture integrates indigenous weaponry—including Astra beyond-visual-range and Rudram anti-radiation missiles—alongside enhanced electronic warfare suites and mission computers. Spending $11 billion on a potential second batch of 120 aircraft, New Delhi aims to preserve its long-range strike capacity and BrahMos missile integration. Pending final Cabinet Committee on Security clearance, two converted flying test beds will undergo five years of flight trials before full-scale modification commences across the air fleet.

Out of Ammo: A Two-Year Sprint to Rebuild the American Arsenal and Deter China

Council on Foreign Relations | Rush Doshi

The United States Department of Defense faces severe material constraints to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027, following critical munition depletions during Operation Epic Fury. To close this critical capability gap within a two-year window, Congress and the Pentagon are deploying emergency legislation and administrative directives to rapidly scale precise mass capabilities, including low-cost autonomous drones, sensors, and containerized cruise missiles.

These expendable systems complement high-end legacy platforms like submarines and fighter jets, whose extended production timelines and supply chain bottlenecks prevent immediate expansion. Backed by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed $16 billion toward low-cost armaments and created a direct reporting portfolio manager overseeing $53.6 billion in unmanned capabilities. Sustaining credible deterrence ultimately demands prioritizing manufacturing schedule over traditional cost and quality constraints while placing American defense production on an immediate wartime footing.

Trump’s South Korea Move Fuels Growing Fears of U.S. Retreat From Asia

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Joshua Kurlantzick

President Donald Trump ordered the Pentagon in August 2026 to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, marking a broader redeployment of American power away from the Indo-Pacific theater. This operational shift coincided with the relocation of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors and the last regional U.S.

aircraft carrier to the Middle East, leaving no American carrier strike group in Asia. The strategic adjustment reflects a doctrinal pivot toward Western Hemisphere dominance codified in the 2025 National Security Strategy. Concurrently, U.S. Taiwan Strait transits dropped by 50 percent relative to Trump's first term, while Freedom of Navigation Operations in the South China Sea ceased entirely during the first half of 2026. Consequently, regional allies including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines are accelerating independent defense planning, elevating military budgets, and debating nuclear proliferation options as confidence in Washington's security guarantees erodes, directly expanding strategic openings for China.

A China Strategy That Lasts: Congress Must Lead to Compete With Beijing

Foreign Affairs | Bill Cassidy

Chinese state-subsidized industrial overproduction requires a permanent legislative framework from the United States Congress to safeguard domestic manufacturing and secure global supply chains. Presidential executive orders offer only temporary protections against predatory trade practices, leaving U.S. national security vulnerable to political shifts in Washington. In response, congressional leaders aim to codify the June 2026 executive order on customs enforcement, building on the July 2025 repeal of the de minimis tariff exemption for packages under $800.

Enacting the Customs Modernization Act would equip Customs and Border Protection with advanced artificial intelligence analytics to screen imports effectively. Externally, the proposed Americas Act seeks to counter Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative by founding the Americas Investment Corporation to finance near-shoring and critical mineral supply chains across the Western Hemisphere. Finally, the Foreign Pollution Fee targets China's 2024 carbon emissions exceeding 12 billion tons, offsetting cost advantages gained through lax environmental standards.