2 June 2026

India's Chip Bet: The Tata-ASML Partnership and the Geopolitics of Semiconductor Sovereignty

Velina Tchakarova  

India has significantly advanced its semiconductor manufacturing sovereignty through a memorandum of understanding signed on May 16 between Tata Electronics and ASML. This agreement, witnessed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten, secures ASML's advanced lithography tools for Tata's $11 billion semiconductor fabrication plant in Dholera, Gujarat—India's first commercial 300mm front-end wafer fab.

Pakistan's Energy Dependency Was Not an Accident

Brief

Pakistan declared an energy emergency on March 10, 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran that closed the Strait of Hormuz, impacting 60% of Pakistan's imported energy. This crisis caused the weekly oil import bill to surge from $300 million to $800 million, a 167% increase, erasing two years of economic progress.

Central Asia Accessing Pakistani Sea Ports by Bypassing Afghanistan

The Jamestown Foundation  |  Syed Fazl-e-Haider

Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Transport and Communications successfully implemented a pilot transport project on April 24, utilizing a 2,000-mile Kyrgyzstan–China–Pakistan route to access Pakistan's Karachi port, bypassing Afghanistan. This initiative provides a new, secure trade corridor for land-locked Central Asian countries, expanding their international logistics role and foreign trade.

Chinese Use Electronic Warfare Attacks on Dutch Warship in South China Sea, Says PLA

USNI News | AARON-MATTHEW LARIOSA

Chinese naval and air forces recently employed electronic warfare attacks and warnings to repel the Royal Netherlands Navy frigate HNLMS _De Ruyter_ (F804) and its embarked helicopter from the airspace over the disputed Paracel Islands on May 27, 2026. According to the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command (PLA STC), the Dutch vessel intruded into Beijing-controlled airspace, prompting "necessary measures" in accordance with laws and regulations.

Stolen Revolution

Comment is Freed  |  Sam Freedman, Lawrence Freedman

Iran's post-1978-79 revolution history reveals a systematic consolidation of power by Ayatollah Khomeini, who rapidly established an Islamic republic by excluding diverse revolutionary factions through a continuous "self-cleansing" process. This approach, where the regime takes a maximalist stance on gaining power but a minimalist one on sharing it, has narrowed its popular support base.

The Ghost of Persia and the Arrogance of Washington

FrameTheGlobeNews

Iran's strategic culture is profoundly shaped by its 500-year history of civilizational survival, a perspective Washington often overlooks by focusing solely on 1979. Its geographically fortified plateau absorbed approximately seventeen invasions between the 7th century and 1906. The Safavid dynasty, beginning with Ismail I in 1501, established Twelver Shiism as a "defensive architecture" and "ideological moat" against Sunni rivals, a strategy informing Iran's "forward defense" doctrine (_defa-e moghaddam_) via groups like Hezbollah and Houthis.

Iran and the Forever War Trap: In Trying to Avoid a Quagmire, America Found a Dead End

Foreign Affairs | Lawrence D. Freedman

U.S. President Donald Trump's "war on Iran," dubbed Operation Epic Fury, aimed to avoid "forever wars" but resulted in a strategic dead end, despite claims of a "largely negotiated" deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On May 25, U.S. forces struck targets in southern Iran, jeopardizing negotiations and a cease-fire.

Trump’s Least Bad Option in Iran: The Logic Behind a Limited Deal

Foreign Affairs | Jennifer Kavanagh, Rosemary Kelanic

Three months after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran started a war in the Middle East, the United States remains stuck in strategic limbo, with no clear resolution. Dueling U.S. and Iranian blockades have closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing 14 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil from world markets.

America’s way of war isn’t working

Politico  |  Ivo Daalder

The U.S. military, despite its unparalleled power, has not won a major war in over 30 years, with the 1991 Gulf War being its sole genuine success since 1945. This consistent failure reflects a deeper flaw in America's strategic thinking, inverting Carl von Clausewitz's theory by treating war as a policy failure rather than its continuation.

No, Russia’s Economy Is Not About to Collapse

Foreign Policy | Cameron Abadi,

Russia's economy, despite experiencing a slowdown directly linked to the ongoing war in Ukraine, is not on the verge of collapse and is assessed to remain stable. This evaluation challenges widespread assumptions of an imminent economic downfall for Moscow, emphasizing the resilience of its financial system. The article's core argument is that while the conflict has indeed impacted economic growth, Russia's foundational economic stability persists, indicating a capacity to withstand significant external pressures without a catastrophic decline.

How Israel has emptied southern Lebanon far beyond the front lines

Reuters  |  Alexander Dziadosz, Nazih Osseiran and Catherine Cartier

Israel's relentless campaign of evacuations and air strikes in southern Lebanon has driven hundreds of thousands of civilians from a steadily expanding swathe of the country, despite a U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced on April 16. This truce, following six weeks of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, has failed to halt near-daily attacks.

The Guardian view on Lebanon’s suffering: the ‘ceasefire’ didn’t stop Israeli attacks. Now they’re intensifying again

The Guardian

Israel's offensive in Lebanon is intensifying despite a supposed ceasefire, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to “crush” Hezbollah. On Tuesday alone, Israeli strikes killed 31 people, and the military ordered the evacuation of the entire city of Tyre. Israeli troops have advanced beyond the southern buffer zone, which some far-right ministers seek to annex.

Trump wants to expand the Abraham Accords. It could sink a deal to end the Iran war.

Ms.now  |  Daniel R. DePetris

President Trump's second-term efforts to negotiate an end to the war with Iran face significant complications, as U.S. and Iranian officials work towards an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for lifting the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and a 60-day war suspension for nuclear talks. 

FPV drone strikes show Hezbollah's changing tactics against Israel

BBC  |  Luke Unger, Adam Durbin

Hezbollah has escalated its use of small first-person view (FPV) drones, including fibre-optic controlled systems, to attack Israeli soldiers, armoured vehicles, and air defence systems in southern Lebanon and northern Israel. BBC Verify geolocated 35 videos since March 26 showing these strikes, which experts state the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has "so far been unable to develop any effective countermeasures" due to their ability to bypass detection and electronic warfare systems.

The New Geopolitics of LNG: Asia’s Energy Security in a Divided World

National Bureau of Asian Research  |  Philip Andrews-Speed, Kurt Glaubitz, Ken Koyama, Mikkal E. Herberg

The 2026 U.S.-Israel war on Iran brutally illustrated how Middle East conflicts can massively disrupt Asia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and critical transit routes, exacerbating a global market already fractured by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and intensifying U.S.-China strategic confrontation. These geopolitical forces are reshaping the global LNG market, impacting Asia's long-term national economic and energy security.

RUSI and the National Cyber Force Renew Their Partnership

RUSI

RUSI and the National Cyber Force (NCF) have renewed the UK Cyber Effects Network, a joint initiative fostering a community of interest in offensive cyber and cyber effects operations. This network convenes representatives from industry, academia, and government to develop thinking on offensive cyber. 

A.I.’s Big Next Step

The New York Times  |  Katrin Bennhold

Three major artificial intelligence companies—OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (including xAI)—are preparing for initial public offerings (IPOs) within the coming months, anticipated to be among history's largest market debuts. This significant financial move, poised to generate substantial wealth, unfolds against a backdrop of increasing public backlash against AI, highlighted by incidents such as former Google CEO Eric Schmidt being booed, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home being attacked, and the Pope's recent encyclical urging humanity-first development, amidst fears of mass unemployment.

Iran’s hackers are coordinating more closely, Israel’s top cyberdefense official says

Nextgov  |  David DiMolfetta

Israel's National Cyber Directorate director-general, Yossi Karadi, states that Iran’s state-aligned hackers have become more organized, coordinated, and are increasingly using artificial intelligence for influence operations. Iranian groups now share cyber tools and leverage AI to refine disinformation and recruitment messages, improving upon previously "very bad Hebrew" campaigns.

Who Is Accountable When AI Goes Global?

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Tony Oweke

Artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly deployed transnationally without accountability, leading to issues like cancer detection algorithms misdiagnosing patients in the Global South due to biased training data, and AI in European border systems risking incorrect asylum seeker returns. This global deployment, lacking shared standards and governance, has sparked a "governance race" among international entities and governments, resulting in a fragmented patchwork of standards and legislation with limited scope or enforcement.

The “Like” Liaison: On Social Media and Diplomacy

Small Wars Journal | Jadyn Ocampo

Social media significantly enhances citizen-diplomacy by enabling global connections and shaping perceptions beyond traditional in-person interactions. It serves as a formal diplomatic tool, allowing diplomats to share information, promote soft power, and build rapport. While algorithms facilitate international exposure, transforming foreign concepts into familiar ones, they also risk creating echo chambers and amplifying misinformation, as seen with Russia and China's influence campaigns.

Beyond the Grade: Improving Feedback Quality to Build Adaptive Army Leaders

Small Wars Journal

The U.S. Army emphasizes feedback as foundational for leader development, with ADP 6-22 and AAR processes mandating routine assessments to foster disciplined thinking and accountability. Professional Military Education (PME) aims to produce adaptive officers capable of disciplined initiative in volatile environments, requiring targeted feedback to shape judgment and ethical reasoning.

Who Protects the Headquarters? Training Headquarters Units to Fight

Small Wars Journal

The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the critical vulnerability of command posts, necessitating that headquarters units can effectively hide, move, and restore communications while directing operations. Headquarters units, from battalion to corps, must be organized and trained as the primary entities responsible for protecting command-and-control nodes and other critical sites.

Reassessing Biddle’s Modern System: data-linked kill chains, advanced algorithms, and the evolution of combined arms warfare in the Russo-Ukrainian war

Taylor & Francis Online  |  Ji-Jen Hwang

The Russo-Ukrainian war demonstrates how data-linked kill chains and advanced algorithmic warfare are reshaping combined arms warfare (CAW), prompting a reassessment of Stephen Biddle’s Modern System theory. Data-linked kill chains enhance battlefield transparency by compressing sensor-to-shooter cycles and enabling near-real-time coordination. Algorithmic systems, including drone swarms and cross-domain synchronization, create new forms of adaptive coordination at the tactical level, though they remain vulnerable to electronic warfare and deception.

Opinion | PNS Hangor: Inside The $5 Billion Submarine Fleet Pakistan Is Buying From China

NDTV  |  Anushka Saxena

Pakistan commissioned the first of four Chinese-built diesel-electric attack submarines, PNS Hangor, on April 30, 2026, in Sanya, China, marking the start of sustained co-production for an eight-unit fleet valued at USD 5 billion. This event underscores the robust China-Pakistan defence partnership, with China supplying 81% of Pakistan's arms imports between 2020-2024, making Pakistan Beijing's largest defence customer.

Severity Of America’s Depleted Advanced Weapons Stockpiles Detailed In New Report

TWZ

A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) details the severe depletion of U.S. advanced weapons stockpiles following the 39-day war with Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury. The U.S. expended so many key offensive and defensive weapons that rebuilding some stocks to pre-war levels will take three or more years.

Ukraine and Iran are Changing Warfare

Persuasion  |  Francis Fukuyama

Ukraine and Iran are spearheading a dramatic revolution in warfare, driven by the proliferation of pilotless drones and ballistic missiles that increasingly displace classic manned airpower. This technological shift enables seemingly weaker powers to effectively challenge larger adversaries like Russia and the United States. New technologies have significantly impacted strategic missions, as demonstrated by Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, thousands of kilometers from its border.

Iran says it targeted American base after fresh US strikes

BBC  |  Nardine Saad, Alys Davies

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced it targeted an American air base in the region following fresh US strikes on southern Iran, escalating hostilities amid a fragile ceasefire. Kuwait, hosting a US base, reported intercepting "hostile missile and drone threats" without confirming the target. 

Polish Army Set to be Largest in Europe

Jamestown | John C. K. Daly

Poland is rapidly expanding and modernizing its military, aiming to become Europe's strongest and largest army by 2030 with 500,000 soldiers. This ambitious goal, driven by Russia's war against Ukraine, involves a defense budget reaching 200 billion zlotys ($54.74 billion) and significant weapons acquisitions.

Autonomous Ground Vehicles and the Sustainment Problem: One Brigade’s Experiment and What the Army Should Do Next

Modern War Institute  |  Marc Dibernardo, Dave Rowland

The US Army's 3rd Brigade, 82nd Airborne Division, during its Panther Avalanche training and Joint Readiness Training Center rotation, demonstrated the immediate operational value of autonomous ground vehicles (AGVs) for sustainment tasks. Systems like the ULTRA by Overland AI executed over fifty autonomous runs, some exceeding nine kilometers, reducing drop zone distribution time by 52 percent and bundle recovery from twenty-four to eight hours.

Missile Defense, The Future of Arms Control, and the Three-Body Problem

Small Wars Journal | David Heiner

The expiration of New START and China’s impending intercontinental ballistic missile parity have rendered the bilateral logic of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) inadequate for managing an emerging three-way nuclear competition. This necessitates trilateral transparency mechanisms, such as Joint Data Exchange Centers (JDEC), and the integration of negotiated ground-based missile defense deployments with limits on offensive forces.

1 June 2026

Living on the Edge: A World in Chaos

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh

The Trump Administration's policies have destroyed the US-India strategic partnership, undermining Indo-Pacific stability through immigration barriers, H-1B visa targeting, and tariffs on India, signaling contempt for its strategic autonomy. This rupture, rivalled by the disastrous Iran war, has left the Quad moribund and stalled the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC).

ChatGPT as a Bomb-Making Manual

Small Wars Journal

India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA) filed a 7,500-page chargesheet in the November 2024 Red Fort car blast, which killed 11 people. A key accused, Jasir Bilal Wani, served as the "in-house engineer" for Ansar Ghazwat-ul-Hind, an Al-Qaida offshoot in the Indian Subcontinent. Wani utilized ChatGPT to research rocket IED construction, querying the platform for explosive mixture ratios and fabrication methods.

Afghanistan: Iran’s Unstable Land Bridge

National Interest  |  Fatemeh Aman

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical geopolitical chokepoint, has experienced significant disruption due to a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and commercial shipping, leading to increased war-risk premiums and widespread shipping delays and disruptions across the Persian Gulf's logistics networks. 

The Strategic Use of Drones in Pakistan–India Irregular Warfare

Irregular Warfare | Tahir Mahmood Azad

The India-Pakistan rivalry has been fundamentally altered by the rapid spread of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), shifting competition from manned airpower to cheap precision, constant surveillance, deniable force, and escalation ambiguity along the Line of Control (LOC). The May 2025 crisis saw both states employ drones at unprecedented scale for probing air defenses,

Where Is Pakistan Again?

Foreign Policy | Bobby Ghosh

The World Bank has quietly reclassified Pakistan, shifting the South Asian nation from its traditional regional grouping to the Middle East column, a decision that carries substantial geopolitical implications beyond a mere bureaucratic footnote. This new geographic designation for Pakistan introduces significant complications for its international standing and regional relationships, particularly concerning its economic and strategic partnerships.