Five Challenges of the Pakistan Army and Possibilities of a Coup

Rajiv Kumar Srivastava - Defence Analyst

The first challenge is the confrontation between the army and the political parties of Pakistan, particularly the alliance led by Imran Khan. Imran Khan, right from his prime ministership, took enmity with General Bajwa in the process of choosing the ISI chief of his choice and later General Bajwa's successor, resulting in his ouster from power. Since then, and now over a year, Imran Khan missed no chance to humiliate Pakistan Army by citing repeated operational failures against India. This scale of open criticism of the Pakistan Army was unimaginable a few years back. Today, the people of Pakistan consider their army incompetent for the major failure against the Indian Army, especially in the 1971 war. General Bajwa’s interview with a senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir in April 2021 to say that their army can not compete against India, only reinforces Imran Khan's allegations. The army recently gave a 25 per cent hike to its soldiers to overcome inflation, which was not gone down well with the people of the country. Now, on social media, people taking a swipe at General Asim Munir for his English accent during his China visit marking another low.

The second challenge stems from the first challenge itself. A large section of the Pakistan Army considers Imran Khan a politician with a clean image. The slogan of Imran Khan, Naya Banega Pakistan entices them. Retired armymen are openly supporting Imran. In this way, the Pakistan Army chief and other army men who were sidelined by Imran Khan to elevate his favourite generals have gathered on one side. Delay and acrimonious high drama witnessed in the selection of the present Army Chief did not go well with a section of serving generals. Top Corps Commanders who were in the run for the top post tendered resignation but left their footprints of dissent. The result is visible in the open fissure along political lines, groupings and indiscipline of the army. A large number of retired defence personnel are openly campaigning for Imran Khan. A small spark can start a fierce battle within them. This also explains, why the Pakistan Army at this crucial phase of political turmoil sitting on the fence watching political parties and judiciary involved in exact modalities of conduct of national and two provincial elections.

The third challenge is about the battle readiness of the Pakistan Army, and their stamina to fight. Due to financial constraints, the country does not have the money to maintain the weapons, ammo and war-fighting planes. On the other hand, India is making the military balance favourable by purchasing state-of-the-art weapons for its defence forces. This rapidly changing combat potential of the Indian Defence Forces has been confirmed in the interview of their former Pakistan Army General Bajwa. Financial aid from America has now stopped and China does not want to give military goods for free. Collaborations with foreign armies have been almost stopped. Even Ukraine has criticized the quality of Pakistan-manufactured ammunition and rockets for their poor quality. Pakistan Army has also returned a few of Ukraine-manufactured tanks to them to tide over the financial crisis.

The fourth challenge is coming from the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban. The terrorist group does not accept the Durand Line and is demanding the formation of a large territory consisting of Afghanistan. A big chunk of his army is against any kind of operation against Tehreek-e-Taliban. A terrorist organization nurtured by the Pakistan intelligence agency, ISI has become hostile and along with its counterparts in Afghanistan expanding its arc of influence.

The fifth challenge is the continuation of military action on the Kashmir borders. The current Sharif government of Pakistan wants to have good relations with India. But a section of the army, particularly the ISI, finds it convenient to keep the situation vitiated by continuing the infiltration and violence by their trained terrorists. India holding G 20 summit meeting at Srinagar, J&K has not gone down well with a section of the Pakistan Army and Pakistan's current Chief General Asim Munir finds it difficult to compromise in the situation.

In the context of these aforementioned five challenges, the possibility of the Pakistan Army capturing the government in the coming times is very strong. The economic crunch, political turmoil and differences in government with higher judiciary are creating an unstable situation in Pakistan which India needs to keep a close eye on.