Iselin Brady and Daniel Byman
The United States is preparing for a confrontation with China even as U.S. officials meet with their counterparts for the 2025 NATO Summit. NATO members can, and should, play an important role in the event of a crisis over Taiwan,
in the Philippines, or other confrontations with China. NATO members’ roles are less about fighting side-by-side with the United States, though signaling their commitment to doing so is important, and more about helping the United States manage other security commitments around the world to free up U.S. forces to concentrate on Asia.
Getting Europe more involved in Asian security will be difficult. European states trade extensively with China—China remains the European Union’s second largest trade partner (after the United States), with an average daily trade of $1.5 billion. Geography also matters: The United States is a Pacific as well as Atlantic power, while European states focus more on their Russian neighbor, not far-away China.
Even if European states wanted to play a greater role, their military capabilities are limited. There are doubts about how much the continent can contribute to Ukraine’s defense and that of post-war Europe, a far more straightforward task than projecting power halfway across the world to Taiwan, the South China Sea, or other areas.
NATO’s policy in Asia is further complicated by the lack of member-state unity in their individual relationships with China, ranging from boasting of close economic ties (Hungary) to those concerned with Beijing's influence (United Kingdom). The first major NATO statement addressing China was released in December 2019 and stated that the country presented “both opportunities and challenges.” However, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, and China’s support for the former, NATO has become more willing to critique China, as demonstrated during the 2024 NATO Summit and in the NATO 2030 agenda.
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