India Must Disrupt Pakistan’s Strategy Of Deceptive Peace Before Retaliation – Analysis

Fair Observer, Srijan Sharma

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The guns have fallen silent along the Line of Control (LoC) between Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir. A fragile ceasefire is in place, but this calm is unlikely to last. Pakistan has a long history of breaking ceasefires and provoking conflict.

India’s recent military operation, Operation Sindoor, forced a temporary de-escalation and pushed Pakistan onto the defensive. Yet this tactical success should not breed complacency. The underlying tensions remain unresolved, and future flashpoints are all but inevitable. India must urgently move beyond reactive measures and prepare a calibrated, forward-looking strategy to address the next wave of threats before they emerge.

A history of deception and conflict

Pakistan’s obsession with India and extremist ideologies motivates its security apparatus to engage in misadventures. In past wars, from the Indo-Pakistani war of 1971 to the Kargil War of 1999, Pakistan refused to learn lessons and instead instilled a false peace or escalated anti-India rhetoric. For decades, Indo-Pakistani relations operated in the shadows of calculated diplomacy. After 2016, Pakistan increased anti-India rhetoric and began using fundamentalist methods and terror networks.

Pakistan cannot match India’s firepower. Despite this, Pakistan takes the risk of limited fighting to counter India’s responses. When conflict crosses a threshold, Pakistan pushes back and initiates a brief diplomatic pause. Following the 2001 Agra Summit, India and Pakistan began a normalization process, which failed. Six months later, terrorists attacked the Indian Parliament. India launched Operation Parakram, leading to a standoff and a ceasefire in November 2003. Just two months after the ceasefire, terrorists attacked Jammu Railway Station, killing four soldiers and six civilians and injuring others.

In April 2005, India and Pakistan agreed to open the frontier dividing Kashmir. The same year, they launched a bus service across Kashmir. Two months later, five Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists attempted to attack Ram Janmabhoomi. Three months after that, Delhi experienced serial blasts. All of this occurred within five months of opening a major land route.