Brent M. Eastwood
Key Points – China’s potential military conquest of Taiwan, a core objective for President Xi Jinping, would involve immense challenges despite Beijing’s growing military might.
An invasion would likely start with a blockade and quarantine, followed by a complex amphibious assault.
However, Taiwan benefits from early warning (satellite detection of Chinese troop/ship movements), limited suitable landing beaches, difficult mountainous terrain favoring defenders, and its own missile/artillery capabilities.
While China could attempt a “shock and awe” bombardment of Taipei, the success of an invasion hinges on unpredictable factors: Taiwan’s will to resist, the effectiveness of its defenses, and crucially, whether the United States intervenes militarily.
Could China Conquer Taiwan?
The reunification of Taiwan is the most pressing geopolitical issue facing China. The Chinese government and its people are obsessed with Taiwan. President Xi Jinping thinks he will be judged by history on how he handles the future of the island nation.
His presidency is in the balance, and failure on the Taiwan issue is not an option. China believes that Taiwan is a renegade province that must be annexed and brought back into the fold. Xi prefers that unification be accomplished by political and diplomatic means, but he has not ruled out annexation by military force.
Blockade and Quarantine Could Come First
This could mean an initial blockade and quarantine to cut off food and energy supplies to Taiwan, followed by an amphibious attack to invade the island. Both moves are risky, especially if the United States decides to intervene. But China has the ships, airplanes, ballistic missiles, and ground forces to bring Taiwan to its knees, especially if the Americans stay out of the fight.
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