After at least 15 years of agitating for a kinetic attack on Iran’s nuclear programme, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally found his chance. In the early hours of 13 June 2025, the Israeli Air Force and commando units unleashed a multi-pronged attack against the Natanz enrichment facility, the missile production site at Khorramabad, the Parchin military complex, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) headquarters and the living quarters of military leaders and nuclear scientists.
The deeply buried enrichment plant at Fordow was not hit in the first night’s attack. However, it could be targeted in the continuing operation that Netanyahu forecast in a televised address the same morning. It is unknown whether Israel was able to destroy the 604kg uranium enriched to 60% U-235 content that Iran has produced to date. This amount is enough for ten or more nuclear weapons if further enriched to the approximate 90% considered to be weapons-grade. The stockpile is transportable and would have been the first thing to be hidden when Israel’s bombing plans became clear.
Opportune timingUnited States President Donald Trump had asked Netanyahu not to take action while US–Iran talks were in progress. A sixth round of talks had been scheduled for 15 June and is now unlikely to proceed. Netanyahu likely judged that a window of opportunity was closing – last October, Israeli airstrikes knocked out Iran’s air defences, and Iran had been replacing the radars and other equipment.
Netanyahu may also have judged that global circumstances were in Israel’s favour. One factor is that Trump suggested on 11 June that talks were nearing an impasse over Iran’s refusal to meet Washington’s demand that it stop enriching uranium on Iranian soil. Another factor in Israel’s favour was the 12 June resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which censured Iran’s lack of cooperation with the agency. Iran had vowed to respond by expanding its enrichment programme.
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