Escalation in the Middle East has reached a new high. Following multiple exchanges between Israel and Iran throughout 2024, Israel has now launched a major military campaign aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
This post offers initial analytical insights into the Israeli campaign and the Iranian response that is now unfolding. As the operational picture remains incomplete, the focus here is on broader trends and implications rather than detailed operational developments.
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Between June 12 and 13, Israeli forces launched “Operation Rising Lion”, conducting large-scale airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and related assets in an effort to halt Iranian nuclear proliferation.
The operation targeted over 100 sites, including nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, as well as ballistic missile and command centers in multiple cities. Initial battle damage assessments indicate that above-ground nuclear infrastructure, such as the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, and critical electricity assets, including transformer stations and backup generators, sustained heavy damage. Underground facilities, however, appear to have remained intact after initial strikes.
The strikes also killed several senior Iranian military officials, including IRGC head Hossein Salami, Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, missile program commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, and six nuclear scientists.
In direct response, Iran initiated “Operation True Promise III”, firing several hundred ballistic missiles in several volleys. Israel’s missile defense system managed to intercept the majority of incoming projectiles, though several ballistic missiles “leaked”, killing at least three civilians and injuring several dozen more.
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