Amr Hamzawy
For the past few months, the greatest threat to security in the Middle East has been the military adventurism pursued by Israel’s far-right government and its belief in its ability to impose its will on its enemies through warfare, coupled with its effective rejection of negotiations and peaceful solutions.
Sure, other dangers should be addressed, including the unregulated military applications of AI and the destabilizing effects of the Palestinian situation on Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. But what is most alarming is the ease with which wars and armed conflicts now erupt in the Middle East (either directly or via proxies), the near-total absence of collective diplomatic frameworks, and the vast disparities in military and intelligence capabilities among regional powers.
As a result, the breakout of war between Israel and Iran last week was not surprising. Nor was the fact that Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities and military sites across a wide geographical area and that it targeted nuclear scientists and military leaders. Equally unsurprising was Iran’s response: missiles launched at Israel, directed at military and strategic targets—some of which landed in residential areas. Nor was it unexpected that Israel insisted on prolonging the war, viewing the Iranian nuclear program as an existential threat, or that Iran offered to return to negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program once Israeli attacks ceased—effectively implying a ceasefire proposal.
The vast imbalance in military power and intelligence capabilities heavily favors Israel over Iran. The Islamic Republic’s most advanced air defense systems (the Russian S-300s) were destroyed in earlier Israeli strikes. And perhaps most notably, its proxies in the region—the cornerstone of its regional influence doctrine, largely established after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and the fall of Saddam Hussein—are either militarily or politically depleted.
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