21 June 2025

Iran Threatens Nuclear Exit And Oil Choke Point As War With Israel Escalates – Analysis

RFE RL, Kian Sharifi

(RFE/RL) — Amid an escalating Israeli air campaign against Iran, calls are mounting in Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes.

The archenemies have been trading fire since June 13 after Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and residential areas in a bid to hinder Tehran’s program and eliminate top military leadership.

Several high-profile Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed in the attacks. Iran’s Health Ministry said on June 15 that 224 people, including children, had been killed.

At least 24 people, including civilians, have been killed in Iranian counterstrikes, according to Israeli authorities.

Israel said it launched its attack because it had concluded that Iran was weeks, if not days, away from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran rejects the claim, insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Iran’s parliament is moving forward with a bill to withdraw from the NPT, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei announced on June 16. Iranian officials are also threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if the attacks continue.

But experts warn Tehran’s threats may be more about political theater than imminent change.
NPT Withdrawal: More Bark Than Bite?

Hard-line Iranian lawmaker Hamid Rasaee over the weekend charged that there was no point in remaining in the NPT since it had failed to protect Iran’s nuclear sites from attacks.

Fellow hard-line legislator Mohammad Mannan weighed in, announcing that a high-priority bill would be submitted to the parliament to push ahead with the withdrawal.

Despite the heated rhetoric in Tehran, experts say Iran is unlikely to actually leave the treaty anytime soon.

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