Ukraine and Russia, Israel and Iran: Searching for the Significant

George Friedman

Source LInk

The Ukrainian drone attack on Russia at the beginning of this month and the Israeli attack on Iran have some striking similarities.

1. Both attacks occurred during negotiations between the United States and the attacked nations (Russia and Iran) that had failed to come to fruition before deadlines set by Washington.

2. Both attacks relied heavily on major, covert intelligence operations.

3. The United States did not seem involved in either operation. However, in Israel’s case, the U.S. was informed in advance, approved the attack and even partly shaped it by prohibiting Israel from killing the leader of Iran. There is less clarity on what the U.S. knew of Ukrainian plans or how it influenced them, but it is unlikely that the U.S. didn’t know about the attack ahead of time.

4. Both attacks had two purposes. The first was the destruction of a strategic asset: long-range aircraft in Russia and nuclear infrastructure in Iran. The second was to create a profound sense of vulnerability in the enemy by using covert operatives deep within enemy territory, sowing uncertainty about the presence of additional covert teams.

5. In both cases, the only response to the attacks, at least at this point, was substantial drone strikes.

6. Neither attack was followed by a conventional military invasion.

The similarities are obvious, but the significance of these similarities is less so and must be considered. From the standpoint of U.S. policy, the operations suggest several things. First, the United States retains a significant interest in these wars. In other words, the desire to disengage from the risks of global involvement is not absolute. The United States retains important interests in both Europe and the Middle East but is limiting its direct involvement. In Israel’s case, the U.S. was aware of the impending attack and set parameters on the action; in Ukraine’s attack, it has not claimed any prior knowledge, but the denial is not convincing given the level of effort involved in the operation and the admitted transfer of intelligence in general to the Ukrainians.