Why Israel’s Attack on Iran Is a Geopolitical Blow for India

Gaurav Sen

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On June 12, Israel launched a significant military operation targeting Iran, marking a dramatic escalation in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. This operation, described as a preemptive strike, aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear program and eliminating key military leaders associated with it. The ongoing strikes exchanged since then by Israel and Iran will have significant implications for India, given its strategic interests and relationships with both nations.

The Israeli airstrikes focused on multiple military and nuclear sites across Iran, including facilities in Tehran and other strategic locations. Reports indicate that the strikes resulted in the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian officials, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Major General Hossein Salami, among others. The Israeli military confirmed that the operation was intended to disrupt Iran’s nuclear capabilities and missile programs.

Iranian officials vowed to respond decisively to what they view as an act of aggression. Following the Israeli strikes, Iran declared a state of emergency and launched retaliatory missile attacks against Israel. Reports indicate that Iran fired dozens of missiles, with some reaching Israeli territory, leading to casualties and damage.

The conflict is bad news for India for several reasons.

First, Iran serves as India’s conduit to Central Asia. India has invested billions in Iran’s Chabahar port – a competitor to Gwadar port in Pakistan – to establish a direct link with Central Asia. Central Asia is crucial for India, not only regarding energy security but also due to its abundance of rare earth minerals, but India does not share a direct border with the region, limited trade potential. The Iran-Israel conflict will jeopardize India’s connectivity plans and impede the long-anticipated progress of the International North-South Corridor.

The regional escalation will also sever the connection between India and Afghanistan, a trade relations that also runs through Chabahar. In that scenario, China will swiftly supplant India in Afghanistan, as it has been endeavoring to do for an extended period. The recent China-Pakistan-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue was just the latest example of Beijing’s efforts in that regard.

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