Ivana Stradner and Peter LaBelle
(FPRI) — Since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s involvement in Eastern Europe has garnered greater attention. Unlike the brutal territorial conquest and destruction seen in Ukraine, Russia’s methods in southeastern Europe are more subtle, using information and psychological warfare techniques rather than traditional military power. In the western Balkans, Russia has cultivated an alliance with the authoritarian president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, aimed at destabilizing the region’s fragile states and embarrassing or distracting NATO and the West.
Provocative actions by Serbia, Russia’s main ally in the region, have affected countries across the Balkans. Serbia has repeatedly moved soldiers to the borders of Kosovo, causing multiple war scares. All this has helped escalate ethnic tensions within Kosovo, where ethnic Serbs have boycotted local elections and rioted against ethnic Albanian mayors. Riots by ethnic Serbs in Kosovo also injured more than 90 NATO peacekeepers in 2023. Russia has contributed to heightening tensions over Kosovo, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threatening that the West was to blame for “a major explosive situation … brewing in the heart of Europe.”
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Serb leader Milorad Dodik has made moves to secede from the fragile federal state that has maintained peace since the brutal Yugoslav wars of the early 1990s. The country has two autonomous entities – the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska – as well as the Brcko District, that has its own local government. They also established a presidency which is held in rotation. The whole system is overseen by a high representative appointed by an international peacekeeping body, who has broad discretion to enforce the terms of the peace,
including by vetoing legislation and dismissing government officials. In 2024, a report from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence warned of an increased risk of inter-ethnic violence in the western Balkans. The warning highlighted Dodik’s “provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de-facto secession for his Republika Srpska.” This, the report noted, “could prompt leaders of the Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) population to bolster their own capacity to protect their interests and possibly lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.”
No comments:
Post a Comment