The Pentagon Predicted They Might Collapse. 6 Years Later, South Yemen Is Winning (I Was on the Ground)

Michael Rubin

ATEQ, YEMEN—Driving from Aden to Ateq, the capital of Yemen’s Shabwah Governorate, takes cars, trucks, and buses past Wadi Omran, which was once ground zero in the fight against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.The road is pockmarked by the scars of earlier car bombs and improvised explosive devices. Our driver casually pointed out bullet-pockmarked and burnt-out schoolhouses and compounds where Al Qaeda had attacked the billeted Shabwani Elite forces, killing dozens each time. Every checkpoint had posters of the martyrs who died manning it.

Today, though, Ateq is peaceful. So too is neighboring Abyan that sits between Aden and Shabwa, a province Yemenis long considered their version of Appalachia—poor, dangerous, and tribal. The Local Shabwa Defense Forces man checkpoints. They are polite and relaxed but deceptively astute. Superior officers watch them via closed circuit cameras. 

The Southern Transitional Council’s intelligence service provides tips about the movement of contraband and terrorists; recently, for example, the checkpoints confiscated captagon pills hidden below bullets in AK-47 magazines. In Abyan, where tribal ties are strong, soldiers focused on Yemenis from outside the region to ensure each had a reasonable region for being in the area; if drivers appeared nervous or evasive, it was easy enough to search vehicles. It might be manpower intensive, but it works.

Summer in Aden is brutal. Temperatures soar upwards of 110 Fahrenheit, and Aden’s humidity can make Washington, DC, seem like Phoenix, Arizona, by comparison. Many stores stay closed until around 4 pm, but then the city comes alive after the sun goes down and the sea breeze starts.The streets remain crowded until the early hours of morning, with kids playing football, foosball, or even billiards on the street, adults gossiping, and young teens challenging old men to dominoes while imams urge people—often unsuccessfully—to come to the mosque for prayer time. Such an atmosphere requires a sense of security. Aden has it, even though no foreign soldiers patrol the streets of the South Yemeni capital.