Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was probably dissembling when he recently confided in Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s High Representative for foreign affairs and security policy, that China “can’t accept Russia losing its war against Ukraine as this could allow the United States to turn its full attention to China.”
Why might Wang have been less than fully truthful? For starters, he’s a diplomat, and all diplomats have a tendency to express less than fully truthful views. To confuse adversaries and keep them guessing is a lesson that diplomats in all countries have mastered.In addition, Wang represents a totalitarian state with a huge propaganda apparatus which, like all such entities, is prone to prefer manipulation to truth telling.
But the misleading nature of Wang’s private comments is most evident in the fact that, contrary to his suggestion that the U.S. is China’s greatest worry at the moment, it is actually Russia.Yes, China certainly wants the U.S. off its back, and any distraction is therefore a good distraction. But America isn’t next door, and it isn’t involved in a debilitating war. Despite the Trump administration’s loud barks, it has yet to resort to biting. Nor is it clear, as the ongoing tussle over tariffs shows, just what biting China would entail.
In contrast, Russia is a far more immediate security concern, and maybe even threat, for China.Consider these three possible outcomes in terms of China’s security interests.If Russia wins in Ukraine — however victory is defined — Putin will be flush with self-confidence and arrogance, his imperialist adventure having proven to be successful in making Russia great again. Such a Russia might be foolhardy enough to attack a NATO country or attempt to annex northern Kazakhstan, neither of which would benefit China.
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