Jeffery A. Tobin
The South China Sea has long stood as the world’s premier case study in maritime gray-zone conflict. It is where sovereignty gets stretched, international law gets tested, and presence—not principle—determines control. For years, strategists analyzed the region for what it reveals about China’s ambitions, US deterrence, and the weakening of global norms. But the story of the South China Sea is no longer just about Asia. Its lessons now surface across the Western Hemisphere.
Latin America and the Caribbean, while rarely treated as maritime flashpoints, face sovereignty challenges paralleling those in Southeast Asia. They unfold not through missiles or standoffs but via offshore oil licenses in contested waters, industrial fishing fleets under flags of convenience, and infrastructure projects that blur the line between development and surveillance. From Guyana’s coast to Peru’s ports and Argentina’s space stations, the region faces a quiet test of resilience.
Five parallels stand out: contested maritime zones, dual-use infrastructure, fragile alliances, narrative power, and the rise of strategic ambiguity. Each reflects how power operates today—less through force, more through friction. The gray zone extends across oceans and narratives, reshaping the Americas.
Competing Maritime Sovereignties and Resource Control
China advances sweeping claims with harassment of foreign vessels, maritime militias, and symbolic gestures like naming underwater features. These do not necessarily spark war but steadily erode legal norms. A similar dynamic plays out in Latin America.
The clearest parallel lies off Guyana. Venezuela has claimed the Essequibo region for more than a century, but the dispute escalated after ExxonMobil’s 2015 oil discoveries offshore. By late 2023, Venezuela held a referendum to formalize its claim and issued exploration licenses in waters already contracted by Guyana. Though the International Court of Justice ruled Caracas cannot act unilaterally, the maneuver reflects the same “administrative assertion” China uses to normalize disputed claims.
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