The notion of Taiwan giving up without a fight is improbable to anyone who understands the history of its people. Escalating coercion against Taiwan carries risks that are not easy to assess for China. For major Indo-Pacific economies, such as Australia, Japan and the United States, the clear imperative must be to ensure none of these scenarios ever eventuates—through deterrence, collective effort and early action.
This is the last of four articles reporting the results of ASPI wargaming of the scenarios. The earlier articles described the scenarios, likely warning signs and the initial events we could expect.The lowest-intensity scenario, subversion, may appear surgical, designed to avoid open conflict. But the strategy could unravel even within the first week, especially as the international community challenged what would be Beijing’s obviously bogus story.
China would say it had to deploy a peacekeeping force for stabilisation; this would be framed as a police action rather than aggression. At first glance, this scenario is Beijing’s most plausible play: engineer unrest, install a puppet regime under the guise of a ‘Taiwan Autonomous Emergency Authority’ or some such, and claim peaceful unification without firing a shot. But even in this softest of scenarios, China is assured of blowback. Taiwan would resist Chinese military moves to seize airports, ports and government leadership.
The next possible scenario is quarantine—a grey-zone tactic in which China would restrict Taiwan’s imports and exports under the pretence of law enforcement or customs checks. It’s not declared war, but it could lead to some minor military event that could lead to war. Within the first week, regional shipping routes would be disrupted, leading to longer transit times, increased costs and shipping delays. Airlines would not fly near the Taiwan Strait, insurance premiums would spike, and economies with deep exposure to China and Taiwan—such as those in Southeast Asia.
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