LUKE COFFEY
After President Trump’s high-level meeting at the White House last week with President Zelenskyy and several European leaders, attention has turned to what security guarantees for Ukraine might look like if a peace deal is reached. Ukraine remains understandably wary of assurances that sound strong on paper but prove meaningless in practice. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum—under which Ukraine gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in exchange for promises later violated by Russia in 2014—remains a cautionary tale.
The most effective way to guarantee Ukraine’s long-term security is NATO membership. But in the short term, President Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not support this idea, nor will he agree to U.S. troops on Ukrainian soil. With this political reality in mind, policymakers should consider a layered approach to guaranteeing Ukraine’s security. No single measure is sufficient, but together they would provide the most robust protection currently possible.
The first step would be to establish a civilian monitoring mission that can patrol both sides of a line of occupation, should a peace agreement leave Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. For credibility, it would need to be led by an organization that both Ukraine and Russia could accept. The Organization of Turkic States or the Gulf Cooperation Council might be viable options, as both aspire to play larger geopolitical roles. While such a mission would not resolve all disputes, it could help stabilize a fragile ceasefire and reduce the risk of renewed hostilities.
The second element would be the creation of a European coalition of the willing—that is, European governments willing to send troops to Ukraine to serve as a deterrent and as a visible demonstration of their commitment to its sovereignty. Several countries, including the UK, France, Canada, and Türkiye, have suggested they could contribute forces. Deployments could be rotational, positioned away from the line of occupation but along likely (future) invasion routes. In addition, the coalition should establish an air policing mission to secure Ukraine’s skies, operating from bases in Poland and Romania. Maritime patrols in the Black Sea would also be essential. A secure and open Black Sea is vital not only for Ukraine’s economy but also for broader regional stability.
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