Ivo H. Daalder
In the weeks since U.S. President Donald Trump’s Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, two things have become clear. One is that convincing Russia to end the war is proving much harder than Trump expected. Days after his meeting with Putin, Russia launched one of the largest-ever attacks against Kyiv, employing nearly 600 drones and several dozen missiles; and on September 7, it launched an even bigger drone and missile assault, hitting for the first time a major government building in the capital. A second is that providing Ukraine with the post-cease-fire security guarantee it has long insisted on as part of any resolution to the war is more important than ever. Although Kyiv’s ultimate security rests with maintaining a strong and capable military, Ukraine must also be reassured that European countries and the United States have its back—and Moscow must be convinced that any resumption of war would involve a conflict with NATO countries.
The best and strongest guarantee of Ukraine’s security would be membership in NATO, but Trump has ruled this out. The administration has also stated that Europe, not the United States, should bear the primary burden of any guarantees, declining to promise any specific form of U.S. involvement. This has left European leaders scrambling to produce a formula that could provide what is needed. One essential step was taken in September, when French President Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 Western allies were prepared to support Ukraine “by land, sea, or air” once the fighting stops. But the details of these contributions remain vague, given that so far only Britain, Estonia, France, and Lithuania have publicly pledged to put forces on the ground in Ukraine.
Europe’s quandary is how to turn its determination to reassure Ukraine into a tangible reality. To do so, European leaders will need to ensure that Ukrainian forces are as strong and capable as possible, and draw on the resources of NATO to support those forces, even if outright membership in the alliance is out of the question.
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