Kassie Corelli
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have degenerated over the past several months, but until recently, the two countries aimed to keep the crisis under control.
Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric regarding Baku has turned into action, including the bombing of Azerbaijani oil depots in Ukraine.
The Kremlin is trying to preserve its influence in the South Caucasus through force or threat, but has only managed to win insignificant concessions so far, losing its leverage over the region in the process.
Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have deteriorated sharply over the past several months (see EDM, July 7, 22). At the end of June, large-scale arrests of members of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg related to long-standing criminal cases left two people dead (Deutsche Welle–Russian Service, July 3). In response, the Azerbaijani authorities conducted searches in the office of the Sputnik-Azerbaijan agency in Baku, where they arrested two employees, reporting that they were Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents under cover (Deutsche Welle–Russian Service, June 30). Soon afterwards, internet technology (IT) specialists with no formal connection to Russian authorities were detained in Azerbaijan (Deutsche Welle–Russian Service, July 4).
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (HUR) declared that Russia is widening its military presence in Armenia due to worsening relations with Azerbaijan (NV.ua, July 4). Later, the Berlin Carnegie Center suggested that the conflict was under control and would not escalate to armed confrontation. The Center’s authors noted that against the backdrop of Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Azerbaijan became an important logistical partner for Russia. In their words, from the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Moscow has actively invested in Azerbaijan’s transport infrastructure and projects for Russia-Iran-India routes (see EDM, June 7, 2023, September 6, 2024, February 6; Carnegie Politika, July 4). Consequently, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev appears to be remaining somewhat cautious, likely to ensure the conflict does not escalate. At the same time, the confrontation with Moscow may be advantageous for Baku because it permits Azerbaijan to position itself in the West as a reliable partner in the energy sector and distract its own population from the country’s internal problems (Carnegie Politika, July 4).
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