Savar Suri
In Robert Kagan’s 2018 book, The Jungle Grows Back, there was a clear warning: the post-World War II (WWII) ‘Pax Americana’ that the world has experienced could diminish if the United States withdraws from its role as the worldwide ‘gardener’. He argues that the relative peace of the last 80 years is the exception, not the norm, and should be managed with great care. In 2022, four years after the book’s publication, Kagan’s foresight was tragically affirmed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, the October 7 attack on Israel and ensuing war further demonstrated the prescience of Kagan’s book. The jungle is growing back, and the world is acting accordingly.
East Asia’s Defense Pivot
Nations like South Korea and Japan, in particular, face threats as a result of their geography; they are surrounded by China, North Korea, and Russia. Rather than entrusting their defense to an increasingly unreliable United States, Japan and South Korea have begun to invest heavily in a growing defense technology sector. Although they remain aligned with Washington, their new insurance policy also affords them greater control over foreign policy decision-making.
Japan’s Rearmament
Japan is the more surprising of the two. The country, given its WWII legacy, has chosen to remain largely pacifist over the last 80 years, capping defense spending at 1 percent of its GDP. The well-known Article 9 of the constitution prohibits Japan from using war as a means of resolving international disputes, and even forbids maintaining a military large enough to conduct a war.
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