Fabian Hoffmann
Ukraine’s missile industry has moved through several distinct phases since 2014, from modest post-Soviet capabilities and problem-ridden pre-war programs to wartime improvisation, foreign reliance, and now ambitious attempts at independent production.
The trajectory has been neither linear nor smooth, shaped by Russian interference, Western supply limits, domestic political pressures, and shifting industrial capacity. By 2025, Ukraine fields a diverse but still imperfect long-range strike arsenal, with lighter drones and mini-cruise missiles forming the backbone and new efforts underway to add heavier missile systems.
This post attempts to provide an initial assessment of the evolution of Ukraine’s missile industry and programs, from pre-2022 to today.
2014–2022: Ukraine’s Pre-War Missile Industry
On the eve of 2022, Ukraine retained a real but uneven missile capacity built on Soviet-era design and production hubs at Yuzhnoye and Yuzhmash, complemented by Luch for longer-range missile systems.
Concrete outputs existed but were limited in scale: the Vilkha guided 300 mm rocket entered service in 2018 with serial production beginning in 2019, and the R-360 Neptune coastal anti-ship cruise missile was delivered to the Ukrainian Navy in March 2021, reportedly just achieving initial operational capability before the war. A short-range ballistic missile program, the Hrim-2 (with the export version known as Sapsan), remained mired in prolonged development with uncertain funding and timelines.
Structural constraints in Ukraine’s missile industry were significant. Deep historical dependence on Russian components and markets, sharply disrupted after 2014 and only partially substituted by 2022. Yet opportunities remained in a skilled workforce, legacy facilities, rising domestic demand after 2014, and early export interest, such as talks with Indonesia on the Neptune in 2021.
2022: Ukraine’s Missile Industry Under Fire
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