Nitya Labh
The Indian Ocean is an overlooked theater for nuclear escalation and conflict. Since the start of this year alone, Iran threatened to strike a US military base in the Chagos Archipelago, China conducted live-fire drills off the coast of Australia, and India and Pakistan faced a sudden escalation in boundary tensions that extended into the maritime space. If not carefully managed, these military standoffs could escalate into wider nuclear conflict. Despite being home to six nuclear-armed or near-nuclear states, five maritime chokepoints, four Nuclear Weapons Free Zones, and 12 sovereignty disputes, the Indian Ocean remains understudied in nuclear discourse.
Current studies analyze the Indian Ocean according to its various sub-regions: East Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, etc. This compartmentalization blinds policy makers to the region’s nuclear risks and escalation dynamics. Reframing the region as one continuous maritime theater would give policy makers a new way to anticipate and manage these threats in the future.
Diego Garcia: the base at the center of escalation. Take the recent escalations between Iran and the United States, for example. The United States has one military base in the Indian Ocean, on the island of Diego Garcia in the Chagos Archipelago. This base has historically been used for “deterrence missions” against Iran. In March, Washington increased deployments to Diego Garcia as part of a campaign of signaling and deception leading up to the US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June. The surge of force included B-52 and B-2 bombers, KC-135 tankers, and C-17 transports. Although the US attack on Iran ultimately did not originate from Diego Garcia, the island served as a decoy to distract from the impending attack.
In response to early threats from the United States, the Iranian government warned it would attack the Indian Ocean base with ballistic missiles and drones. To date, however, Tehran has only retaliated by limiting inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency. On August 28, Britain, France, and Germany declared Iran in “significant non-performance” of the Iran nuclear deal, triggering a 30-day countdown for “snapback” sanctions to be imposed. Experts warn these sanctions could spark uncontrolled retaliation from Tehran. As tensions remain high, any military standoffs run the risk of escalating into the Indian Ocean region.
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