Two years after the October 7 attacks by Hamas and the start of the war in Gaza, the Middle East stands at a crossroads.
Despite the immense challenges facing the region, RAND's Shira Efron sees reason for hope. “The main obstacle is fear and lack of trust,” she said. “While there are ideologue spoilers on both sides, the majority of Israelis and Palestinians want peace, but don't believe the other side wants the same thing. If we can address that, there's a path forward.”
Efron has spent her career at the intersection of research and policy, advising governments and international organizations on the region's most complex issues. In August, she was named the Distinguished RAND Israel Policy Chair. The chair was established by The Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation and The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation. In this new role, Efron draws on two decades of expertise in Israeli and Middle Eastern affairs to expand RAND's research on the region.
How would you describe the current state of the war in Gaza and the broader situation in the Middle East?
On the positive, when Hamas launched its attack on October 7, its intention was to ignite a multi-front attack on Israel—drawing in Hezbollah, Iran, and others—and thankfully, this vision did not materialize. Instead, thanks largely to Israeli actions, Hezbollah is crippled, the Assad regime in Syria is gone, Iran, as it turns out, is not 10 feet tall, and its network of proxies has substantially weakened. For the first time in decades, Lebanon and Syria have a chance of rebuilding.
In Gaza, there have also been major military achievements, with Hamas no longer being the terror army it once was, nor a governing authority, let alone an actor that can pose an October 7–like threat again. Despite these gains, Israel continues to pursue an elusive objective of “total victory,” with no clear strategy for achieving it. The continuation of the war—which the vast majority of Israelis and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) leaders oppose—jeopardizes these military successes. It pushes Israel further into global isolation, it pushes away Israel's European and Arab partners, and it makes it harder for countries in the region to focus on cross-border challenges and to partner on weakening radical forces.
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