Radosław Sikorski
There is a saying that each U.S. administration discovers Russia anew. Almost every president in recent decades has entered the White House hoping for a fresh start, but the result has always been the same: The more that’s offered to Moscow, the more it demands.
In the early hours of Sept. 10, more than 20 drones launched from Russia violated Poland’s airspace. NATO jets were scrambled to shoot them down. These drones did not veer off course. They did not drift into a NATO country by mistake. My government is certain that it was a provocation orchestrated by the Russian regime. Just over a week later, three Russian fighter jets violated Estonian air space for around 12 minutes.
These and other incidents are yet more proof that the Kremlin is not interested in peace but in escalation. If you are surprised by that, you have not been paying attention.
Since his inauguration, President Trump has tried every diplomatic avenue to achieve peace in Ukraine. He created the position of special envoy for peace missions and nominated to the post someone acceptable to the Kremlin; American diplomats have met their Russian counterparts on neutral ground, and the special envoy has visited Moscow several times; Mr. Trump has personally and publicly asked President Vladimir Putin of Russia to “STOP!” the war in Ukraine, and when Mr. Putin ignored the request, Mr. Trump offered to meet him one on one in Alaska.
But the arithmetic of war speaks for itself: Russia is not looking for an offramp. Its military spending for 2025 is estimated to reach 15.5 trillion rubles, around $190 billion, up 3.4 percent from 2024. Spending on defense and security in 2026 is projected to consume roughly 40 percent of Russia’s entire budget.
And this April — three months after the new U.S. administration took office — Ukrainian officials said that Russia was planning to increase its troop presence in Ukraine by 150,000 by year’s end. Russian bombs have never stopped pounding Ukrainian cities. Now come the brazen incursions into NATO airspace. These incursions are not a sideshow; they are another rung up the ladder of escalation.
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