Kurt M. Campbell
On October 24, 2023, a U.S. Air Force B-52 bomber was flying a nighttime mission in international airspace over the South China Sea when it was intercepted by a Chinese fighter jet. In a series of dangerous high-speed maneuvers, the jet pilot flew within ten feet of the bomber, endangering both aircraft and crews. This came on the heels of a June 2023 incident when the USS Chung-Hoon, a U.S. Navy destroyer, was sailing through the Taiwan Strait and a Chinese warship overtook her on the port side at high speed. The Chinese ship then abruptly tacked and crossed her bow at 150 yards, causing the Chung-Hoon to slow her speed quickly to avoid a collision. The Chinese warship ignored repeated attempts at ship-to-ship communication and violated standard operating procedures for close encounters on the high seas.
These are but two near misses in recent years between the U.S. military and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. Although U.S. military strategists and planners are increasingly focused on preparing for intentional Chinese military actions in the Western Pacific, especially regarding Taiwan, these close calls have created substantial anxiety among U.S. analysts that an accident or miscommunication between the U.S. military and the PLA could pull the two countries into a conflict neither one desires.
These concerns are not new. For decades, the United States has tried to place guardrails on its military relationship with China, oftentimes borrowing from the playbook it used to keep U.S.-Soviet relations stable during the Cold War. During the 1990s, when Washington still enjoyed overriding military advantages over Beijing, U.S. strategists focused on reassurance, such as military dialogues and communication protocols. Today, as the Chinese military increases its presence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea and as U.S.-Chinese tensions simmer from trade to technology, U.S. officials are more focused on confidence-building measures, which aim to create greater predictability in military operations, as well as crisis communications to ensure that a small mishap does not snowball into a full-scale war. “China is the most rapidly growing military, and the most rapidly growing nuclear power, in the world. The U.S. has the biggest military in the world,” U.S. Representative Adam Smith said while visiting Beijing last month. “It is dangerous for us not to be having regular communications about our capabilities and intentions.”
No comments:
Post a Comment