Lawrence Freedman
Watching two nuclear powers fight each other is not good for the nerves and inevitably leads to fears of a cataclysm. The best reason to stay calm is that the situation is not unprecedented. Since India and Pakistan both confirmed their nuclear status with tests in 1998 there have been many bouts of fighting between the two that have stayed relatively contained in both time and space without turning into major war.
There is a pattern, which so far the current crisis appears to be following. It begins with provocations in the contested territory of Kashmir, blamed by India on Pakistan but denied by Pakistan. This is followed by a flurry of military activity which achieves little. Eventually both sides return to how they were.
This is what is most likely to happen this time, not least because neither side seems prepared for anything more. The Pakistanis in particular can ill afford a prolonged crisis as their economy is already on the edge, and this may be decisive as they assess their next steps. There is always the risk that once two countries get into tit-for-tat exchanges neither will be willing to let the other have the last word but that can be fudged. More problematic is that the political context, both in terms of the situation in Kashmir and the state of Indo-Pakistani relations, has deteriorated.
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