Phar Kim Beng and Luthfy Hamzah
The Strait of Hormuz has long stood as a symbol of global energy vulnerability. Stretching barely 39 kilometers at its narrowest point between Iran and Oman, it funnels nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply and over one-third of liquefied natural gas. Any threat of its closure—whether rhetorical or real—inevitably triggers alarms across energy markets.
Yet beneath the headlines and hyperbole lies a strategic paradox: closing the Strait of Hormuz would not deal a decisive economic blow to the United States. In fact, the economic and geopolitical recalibration underway since the US shale revolution suggests that Washington is less exposed than its adversaries and even some of its allies.
Since the early 2010s, the United States has pursued a pathway toward energy self-reliance. The shale boom transformed the US from a net importer into one of the world’s top oil producers. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), less than 10% of its crude imports now come from the Persian Gulf.
Moreover, the US has fortified itself with a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) capable of dampening supply shocks during times of geopolitical crisis. Though partially drawn down during the Ukraine and Gaza crises, the SPR remains a vital economic shield.
This structural shift has dramatically reduced America’s vulnerability to turmoil in the Gulf. In contrast to the 1970s oil shocks, when OPEC’s embargo inflicted widespread inflation and recession, today’s US economy is not tethered to the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy independence has become a cornerstone of US strategic confidence, especially under the Trump administration’s renewed emphasis on resource nationalism and transactional diplomacy.
But the implications go deeper. For President Donald Trump and his circle of foreign policy strategists, any regional escalation in the Gulf—whether through Iranian retaliation or Israeli provocation—can be leveraged as a controlled escalation.
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