My theme today is to try and answer the question: “What do we expect from the Trump administration with respect to cybersecurity and data privacy in the next four years?” The “A” answer of course is that nobody really knows. Trump is exceedingly unpredictable—the more so with respect to issue areas where he really has no preconceived and settled notion. Unlike, say, tariffs, it seems likely that Trump has given little thought to cybersecurity or data privacy—and thus his reactions are likely to be off the cuff. But that would be a short analysis, and you deserve more. So let’s dive in.
My deeper analysis starts by providing a broad context for U.S.-EU cybersecurity and data privacy engagement today. I then turn to specific predictions about Trump’s expected actions in the areas of cybersecurity and data privacy. I conclude with some thoughts on how these actions will impact the EU and how the EU member states ought to consider responding.
Context
Geopolitics
Our consideration of Trump’s policies arises in the context of a particularly dangerous time in the world. Existing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are matched by potential conflicts over Taiwan and Kashmir. It is reasonably safe to say that the potential for state-on-state violence is at the highest level it has been since 9/11 and its aftermath or, possibly, since the Berlin Wall fell.
At the same time, the United States is systematically diminishing its ability to collect and analyze information on a global scale. Funding and staffing cuts at the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Department of State all portend less data on which to base decisions—as does a seeming rise in the reluctance of our traditional allies to share information with the U.S.
This is fundamentally scary—a more dangerous world about which we know less is a formula for disaster.
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