Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian intelligence operations have shifted toward a mass-scale approach, focusing on sabotage,
intelligence collection, and influence efforts. This transformation is driven by Russia’s expanding operational demands, even as it is constrained by mass expulsions of intelligence officers and the urgency to ramp up operations.
In response, Russian intelligence has prioritized quantity over quality, relying on multiple cheap, inefficient, and nonprofessional resources. Sheer numbers compensate for inefficiency, and anonymity provides an added layer of plausible deniability.
A key driver of this shift has been the Kremlin’s efforts to undermine Western support for Ukraine, which disrupted Russia’s plans for a quick victory. Russian intelligence—Russia’s primary strategic tool since the Soviet era—was tasked with imposing costs on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), shaping public opinion, disrupting arms shipments,
and gathering intelligence. However, with diminished capabilities and a decline in professionalism, Russian intelligence has moved away from precision-driven, professionalized operations to a mass-scale, decentralized model that mirrors broader trends in Russian military strategy.
This change aligns with Russian military and strategic thinking, in which material shortages are compensated by sheer numbers and a disregard for casualties. This transformation has significant implications for intelligence efficacy, resource management, and global security.
The shift from quality to quantity
Historically, Soviet intelligence operations during the era of the KGB (the Russian Committee for State Security) were marked by precision and the use of highly trained operatives. These operations focused on high-value targeted objectives such as the infiltration of foreign governments, high-profile assassinations, and covert activities.
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