Col Raja Wangdi Sherpa
Game Theory is described as a mathematical theory of decision making in a conflict situation. However, there are several restrictions on the type of conflict and their amenability to analysis. It is important to understand that Game Theory neither provides any magical formula to solve difficult planning situations, nor offers undue hope of simplifying the decision process. To consider an estimate from the Game Theory point of view requires a higher degree of analysis and logical thought than what we use in present planning doctrine.
Various conflict situations were studied for the first time in 1944 by Von Newman, a Hungarian born American mathematician and Oskar Morginstern, a German economist, and their speculations were published in their book 'Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour'. Since then, practical applications of the theory have been made in tactical situations, weapon system analysis, logistics and economics. However, more important to the military planner is the fact that the implications of the theory can be brought to bear on situations more complicated and less precise than those to which it was applied originally.
The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a key concept in game theory that describes a situation in which two parties may not cooperate, even if it is in their best interest, because they lack trust or fear of the other party’s defection. This theory can be applied to understand the complex dynamics of India-China relations, particularly in the context of China’s assertiveness and belligerence.
Applying the Prisoner’s Dilemma to India-China Relations
In the context of India-China relations, the Prisoner’s Dilemma theory suggests that while both countries may benefit from cooperation, the mutual distrust and fear of betrayal (exacerbated by China’s belligerence) push both towards strategies that maintain the possibility of conflict. To overcome this dilemma will require incremental trust building, recalibration of geopolitical strategies and clearer communication to manage competition and avert escalatory moves. However, without such steps, the cycle of defection and mutual suspicion is likely to continue.
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