Dmytro Kuleba
For almost everyone involved, the diplomacy around ending the war in Ukraine seems to be an exercise in faking it till they make it. Russian President Vladimir Putin is pretending he wants peace. U.S. President Donald Trump is riding along with him, pretending (or perhaps truly thinking) that Putin is sincere. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is pretending he believes Trump, as are leaders in Europe. The summits in Alaska and Washington reflected this, generating lots of noise without any breakthroughs. Call it the fog of diplomacy.
Still, it would be a mistake to say the gatherings accomplished nothing. In fact, every leader in attendance walked away with some sort of achievement. By traveling to Alaska, Putin placated Trump, who was growing exasperated with the Russian leader, and lived out his long-held fantasy of meeting with a U.S. president and carving up part of Europe. Trump, meanwhile, used the Alaska meeting to free himself from domestic pressure to impose harsh sanctions on Russian oil or to take other forceful measures. In Washington, Ukraine and Europe received promises that Trump would continue selling arms to Ukraine and demonstrated that they have seats at the negotiating table. Trump, for his part, reassured critics that he was not cutting a deal with Putin behind the backs of his NATO allies.
But although the summits mark a departure from Trump’s early strategy—when Ukraine and Europe received only sticks, and Russia only carrots—the president is mercurial. He has repeatedly expressed admiration for powerful dictatorships and endorsed the idea that, in international relations, strong countries should do as they like. Trump doesn’t even think he needs to listen to Putin, although Russia’s president also believes that the weak must submit to the will of the great. As the talks continue, Trump could flip back to threatening Kyiv and Europe.
But no matter how many times Putin and Trump speak, and no matter what they do, Ukrainians are strong enough to avoid having their future dictated to them. Kyiv is not opposed to a negotiated settlement, as Trump occasionally suggests. But unless it is abandoned by Europe and experiences a domestic collapse, Ukraine will not surrender. To become a great peacemaker, Trump will thus have to better understand what Kyiv requires before the country puts down its weapons.
No comments:
Post a Comment