This article was originally published by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and is reprinted with permission.
Frank Sobchak, a retired US Army colonel and professor at the US Naval War College, says the use of drones in the Ukraine war has created a stalemate reminiscent of World War I.
RFE/RL: Let’s start with your take on the ongoing Russian offensive, which seems to be faring better than many expected. What is the reality on the battlefield?
Frank Sobchak: I think this really plays into the broader question of where the conflict stands. In many ways, it resembles a World War I-style static war: Russia making tiny, incremental gains –sometimes just a square kilometer a day. According to the Institute for the Study of War, if Russia continues advancing at this rate, it would take them 300 years to occupy Ukraine.
RFE/RL: But the tempo has increased in recent weeks. The situation became extremely dire near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk, where the Russians achieved a tactical breakthrough and then were pushed back by Ukrainian forces. What’s your assessment of the current situation?
Sobchak: I’d look at this more strategically than tactically. Tactically, what we see is two boxers in a ring trading blows. The strategic question is: Who tires first? Who folds and goes down? That ties into two things — the defense industrial base and willpower. On willpower, both sides remain extraordinarily strong. There’s nothing from Russia suggesting they’ve abandoned their maximalist war aims. Ukraine’s determination is also intact. Yes, there are fissures and cracks on both sides, but nothing decisive.
At the tactical level we see World War I-level stasis. Part of this is caused by that war of wills, the two boxers who are still trading blows. The other major factor causing a static front is drones. In World War I, it was caused by machine guns, artillery, and poison gas; today it boils down to drones. Their impact is twofold. First, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance: Each side now has a far clearer picture of what’s happening behind enemy lines than in almost any past conflict.
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