Mireya Solís
Over the past decade, as much of the world has become more chaotic and succumbed to nationalism, protectionism, and illiberalism, Japan has been a force for maintaining the stability of the international order. Tokyo has shored up its rules-based economic partnerships; intensified security cooperation with like-minded countries, such as Australia, India, and the Philippines; and “de-risked” from China while maintaining its commitment to global trade. Japan has been able to play this stabilizing role because it has enjoyed internal social and political cohesion and benefited from strong leadership, most notably during Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s second term, which lasted from 2012 to 2020.
Japan’s political center, however, seems to be weakening. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed Japan for nearly seven uninterrupted decades, suffered bruising losses in the most recent elections for both chambers of the national legislature—the Lower House last fall and the Upper House this summer—as did its coalition partner, Komeito. For the first time, Japan’s ruling coalition is clinging to minority positions in both chambers. And a populist far-right party, Sanseito, won 14 seats in the Upper House elections—up from one in 2022—on an anti-foreigner platform.
The retreat of the political establishment and surging support for an antiglobalist party are symptoms of an even more pressing domestic problem in Japan: the failure of mainstream parties to generate strong leaders. Power is fragmented because the LDP is internally divided, its coalition partner is losing ground, and the opposition is too disjointed to mount an effective challenge. This lack of leadership is making it harder for Japan to respond to the tectonic geopolitical realignments it faces, none more pressing than the United States’ extractive approach to the global economy and its alliances.
TROUBLE ADJUSTING
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