Zachary Burdette, Karl Mueller, Jim Mitre, Lily Hoak
Historically, most technological breakthroughs do not fundamentally affect the risk of conflict. There have been notable exceptions. The invention of printing helped fuel the social and religious upheavals in Europe that later contributed to the outbreak of the Thirty Years’ War in 1618. By contrast, nuclear weapons have significantly dampened the risk of great power war since World War II.
Because advanced artificial intelligence (AI) could create far-reaching social, economic, and military disruptions, it could be another exceptional technology with important implications for international security (Kissinger, Schmidt, and Mundie 2024). Analysts need to seriously consider the possibility that AI may cause changes in the international security landscape that could lead to the outbreak of wars that would not otherwise happen (Mitre and Predd 2025).
Drawing on decades of research about what conditions make wars more or less likely throughout history, we examine six hypotheses about how AI might increase the potential for major interstate war (Van Evera 1994). The hypotheses reflect different ways that AI’s effects on militaries, economies, and societies might undermine international stability, with a focus on the pathways that appear most plausible and concerning. We evaluate these hypotheses by identifying what key conditions are needed for them to be valid and then assessing the likelihood that those conditions will align in ways that would make conflict more likely.
Exploring the consequences of advanced artificial intelligence that is much more sophisticated than what exists today, the analysis assumes that AI could eventually become capable of reliably matching human performance across a wide range of cognitive tasks, which some technologists refer to as “artificial general intelligence” (Kahl 2025).
Overall, the risk that AI will directly trigger a major war appears low, especially if governments take steps to manage the technology’s use. But AI could create destabilizing shifts in the balance of power or negatively influence human strategic judgment in ways that fuel misperceptions. Fortunately, prudent government policies can help limit these risks.
No comments:
Post a Comment