The most interesting thing about the big security summit in China this week is the guest list. More than 20 leaders have joined President Xi Jinping at the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which started yesterday in Tianjin. That’s the most in the organization’s history.
They include Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India (who is still smarting from President Trump’s recent tariff increase) and President Vladimir Putin of Russia. But the list also includes the leaders of American partners like Turkey and Egypt, and their presence speaks to a rapidly changing geopolitical reality. I talked to my colleague David Pierson, who is in Tianjin for the summit.
Katrin: What does this guest list tell us?
David: China has summoned the non-Western-aligned world to this event to tell Washington: “You are no longer calling the shots.”
The thing that’s special about this summit is that geopolitics is at play in a way that we haven’t seen in a very long time. The Trump administration has upended the U.S. alliance system. It’s gifting this incredible opportunity to Xi Jinping to pull friends away from the U.S.
Is Trump losing India to China?
I wouldn’t go that far. Modi was scheduled to come here before the dust-up with Trump. But it has certainly injected a lot of momentum into his trip. Modi is signaling to the U.S. that he has options, that there are consequences for the chaotic foreign policy that’s coming out of Washington.
It’s striking that Trump has used these incredibly different approaches to Russia and India: Red carpet for Putin, tariffs for Modi. But both these approaches seem to help China.
Yes. Xi feels validated for sticking by Putin. He was under so much pressure after the invasion of Ukraine. Now they’re watching Putin show up on American soil, the red-carpet handshake, and they suddenly no longer feel U.S. pressure for this relationship.
In a previous era, stability offered by China might have been worth much less because the U.S. and the West offered stability, too. But in a world where that stability is no longer a given, it comes at a premium.
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