Albert Wolf
The Personal Wars: Why Putin’s Political Survival Prevents Peace
Russia is not any closer to ending the fighting in Ukraine. The costs of this war, in terms of lives, treasure, and stability, are staggering. A deal should have been reached long ago.
Since 2022, Russia has failed to achieve its primary aim of destroying the Ukrainian nation. It has faced embarrassing reversals on land, at sea, and in the air.
Vladimir Putin and his Generals have been carrying out a multi-domain equivalent of Verdun over the past three years with no end in sign.
When combatants reach a situation that reveals the proper balance of power, they are expected to cut their losses and negotiate a deal.
Yet, the war in Ukraine has continued to grind on because of the personal fate of the leader in charge. For Putin, peace poses a greater threat to his survival than continued war.
Traditional accounts of how wars end often treat states as monolithic actors, overlooking the complex dynamics of domestic politics and the personal risks faced by individual leaders.
However, where a leader is fighting a losing or protracted war, they calculate not only the likelihood of losing power but also what will happen to them after they have lost it.
When leaders face the prospect of imprisonment, exile, or execution, they are likely to “roll the dice” on the battlefield, hoping for a change in fortune rather than accepting a defeat that would seal their doom.
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