In response to a deteriorating strategic environment and the removal of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty constraints, a number of European states are now looking to buy or develop strike systems designed to hold an adversary’s forces at risk at long range, known as ‘deep precision strike’ (DPS) capabilities. One development related to this ambition, the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA), is an initiative by select NATO members aimed at determining the defence requirements for, and supporting the joint development of, conventionally armed DPS capabilities and enabling technologies, such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR).
This paper focuses on the capability ambitions and doctrines of France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom, four of the six ELSA partners, while also considering other partners Italy and Sweden. It explores the similarities and differences among these partners, the capabilities and systems envisioned under ELSA, and the ways in which states conceive of employing DPS tools for deterrence and war-fighting purposes.
The analysis shows that all six partners are pursuing ambitious DPS programmes to expand beyond largely air-launched legacy missiles towards 1,000–2,000 kilometre+-range ground- and sea-launched cruise- and ballistic-missile options. While the partners generally agree on the strategic purpose of their intended DPS capabilities, there is considerable variation in each nation’s technological starting point, their defence-industrial approaches to missile development, their capability ambitions and the motivations behind their ambitions.
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