Masoom Stanekzai
Geography and a history of proxy politics have made Afghanistan an arena for others’ contests, undermining its stability. Internal fragmentation has compounded the damage. Regional rivalries have repeatedly undermined Afghan-led efforts toward peace.
These rivalries have included those between Pakistan and India and between Iran and the Gulf States. Intensifying US–China competition and US tensions with Russia and Iran have also been factors.
The rivalries that robbed Afghanistan of peace began during the Cold War and persisted through the 1979 Soviet invasion, the rise of extremism, and the US-led intervention of 2001 to 2021. Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and, later, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)—a regional branch of Daesh—each emerged as a direct consequence of these interventions and their unintended outcomes. They emerged first during the Soviet invasion, the US-supported jihad against the Soviets, and later during the War on Terror in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
Today, Afghanistan is once again trapped in a cycle of geopolitical tensions. Shifting alliances and rivalries evoke the old game, but with some new players.
External actors have consistently prioritised their own security and strategic interests over Afghanistan’s peace and stability. Pakistan pursued strategic depth in Afghanistan against India; Iran and Russia viewed the Taliban as a hedge against ISKP and a potential destabilising force; and China eyed Afghanistan’s mineral and transit potential in the Belt and Road Initiative, while monitoring security risks related to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement.
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