Rany Ballout
Now that the US-brokered ceasefire in Gaza appears to be holding, does it signify that an Israeli war against Hezbollah is imminent? Recent developments along the Israel-Lebanon border increasingly suggest that a major confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah is possible. Israel has been carrying out airstrikes, including assassinations and strikes against Hezbollah sites, largely in southern Lebanon, since the November ceasefire that ended the war between the two in 2024. Jerusalem is now intensifying its escalation as a possible preparation for a major offensive against Hezbollah. Many analyses point out that should the Lebanese authorities fail to disarm the militia, Israel will begin a confrontation.
The escalation against Hezbollah comes amid the group’s ongoing efforts to block its disarmament and disrupt any diplomatic initiative toward broader Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. President Trump, in his speech before the Knesset, celebrated the US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and praised Lebanese president Joseph Aoun for his stance on disarmament. Aoun soon called for negotiations with Israel, signaling a potential breakthrough. He even expressed openness to direct talks, a historic shift in Lebanon’s posture.
A week later, US special envoy Tom Barrack echoed this call, urging Lebanon to engage in peace talks to address border and security issues while warning that Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm risks triggering a major Israeli offensive. Barrack reiterated his message lately, while calling Lebanon a “failed state” amid the stalemate that is preventing Hezbollah’s disarmament.
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