By Isheika Cleare
South Korean marines take positions during a joint amphibious landing exercise with their Philippine and U.S. counterparts at a beach facing the South China Sea in San Antonio town, Zambales province.
South Korean marines take positions during a joint amphibious landing exercise with their Philippine and U.S. counterparts at a beach facing the South China Sea in San Antonio town, Zambales province, on Oct. 7.
When the Biden administration imposed export controls to restrict the transfer of sensitive technology to China, it signaled the United States’ final abandonment of the once-popular political theory that China’s integration into the global economy would make it freer and friendlier. Washington is proactively enacting more aggressive policies to delay China’s rise to global preeminence. But it doesn’t want to do this alone and has already reached out to allies in Europe and elsewhere. The most difficult sell, however, is likely to be to China’s neighboring states.
For Indo-Pacific states, this is a fraught request, as picking sides risks jeopardizing regional stability and economic growth. U.S. officials want Asian states to help it hold back China’s rise by withholding material support and cooperation or, even better, by actively pushing back against Chinese expansion. Most Pacific states, from Vietnam to the Philippines, want to continue to enjoy trade with China, one of their biggest economic partners, while receiving security protection, explicit or otherwise, and regional balance from the United States. This strategy allows them to maintain neutrality and avoid alienating either power. Calm coexistence and the continuance of the status quo is their best bet.
If this is the collective inclination, what level of support can the United States reasonably expect for its China policy? Because Asia is not a monolith, naturally, responses to U.S. policy shifts will vary. Yet there are some strategic concerns that cross borders and, for some of Asia’s main power players, the incentives to resist the region’s security hegemon may outweigh the call to fence in the region’s economic hegemon.
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