Giorgio Cafiero, and Fatemeh Aman
Russia’s formal recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in early July has stirred cautious optimism in Kabul, where Taliban officials hope it signals a shift in international attitudes, even as broader engagement remains unlikely. With the Islamic Emirate demonstrating a durable grip on power, that optimism may be well-founded.
Some non-Western states with close ties to Moscow may eventually follow Russia’s lead in recognizing the Taliban. Among them, Iran is an interesting case to consider. Given Tehran and Kabul’s overlapping interests, particularly in fighting certain extremist groups as common enemies, whether and when Iran might eventually follow suit in recognizing the Taliban is a question worth exploring.
It is reasonable to suggest that Russia’s recognition of the Taliban may increase the likelihood of Iran following suit. Yet, it is equally important to recognize the limits of the Iran-Russia relationship. Although Tehran and Moscow have grown closer—evidenced by Iranian drone support for Russia during the Ukraine war—it remains a partnership rooted in pragmatism rather than a formal alliance.
Iranian and Russian strategic interests do not always converge, and this divergence is particularly relevant when considering the question of Taliban recognition and geopolitical priorities. Russia’s decision to recognize the Taliban was driven by its own calculations regarding post-occupation Afghanistan. Should Iran choose to take a similar step, it would do so based on its unique national interests and geopolitical priorities.
Iran’s Uneasy Dance with the Taliban
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