The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, originating with the Russian invasion in 2014 and escalating significantly following the full-scale invasion in February 2022, has exerted a profound influence on global security dynamics as well as on the future direction of war. While the likelihood of achieving a peaceful resolution by 2025 remains remote, the war has offered invaluable insights into contemporary warfare, specifically in the areas of advanced technological applications, strategies for deterrence, and the mobilisation of national resources.
Countries such as Japan, Taiwan and the United States have demonstrated a proactive approach by integrating lessons derived from Ukraine into their security policies and procurement strategies. In contrast, Australia’s National Defence Strategy (NDS) of 2024[1] and its implementation has demonstrated insufficient adaptation to these lessons, particularly in the areas of uncrewed systems, counter-UAV technologies and long-range strike.
This paper posits that most conceivable military scenarios in the Pacific involving Australia and its allies could benefit from the insights obtained from Ukraine. However, at the same time, these lessons must be contextualised given the distinct political, geographic and strategic characteristics of the Pacific theatre.
The document explores key trends in the Ukraine conflict, highlighting the unprecedented visibility provided by open-source sensors, social media platforms, and media access to battlefield operations. While this visibility has contributed to a broader understanding of the conflict’s trajectory and the employment of innovative technologies, the inherent ‘fog of war’ continues to obscure numerous aspects. It is anticipated that certain elements of this conflict may remain unknown or shrouded in ambiguity for years to come.
The paper concludes by presenting recommendations aimed at translating the lessons learned from Ukraine into strategies tailored to the Pacific context. By identifying the specific factors that differentiate the Pacific theatre from eastern Europe, it is argued that military institutions, including the Australian Defence Force (ADF), can more effectively adapt these lessons to enhance deterrence capabilities and the operational effectiveness of military forces amid escalating Chinese military activities—along with those of its Russian and North Korean partners—within the Pacific region.
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